The NBA is Back!
October 27th 2009 06:57
On the eve of 2009 Opening Night in the NBA, a cliche and fresh optimism abounds in NBA locker rooms across the league. The failures, injuries, unfulfilled potentials, and infighting of last season are gone. Likewise, the title runs, shocking surprises, cohesion, and buzzer beaters are forgotten. Every team, no matter how elite or incompetent, begins 0-0 with a clean slate.
It is this optimism that gives Bulls fans hope for their young upstart, Spurs fans reassurance that Duncan and Popovich can STILL do their thing, that gives Laker fans confidence that Ron Artest is not an uncontrollable psychopath. It is this optimism that has Thunder fans raving about Kevin Durant and Co, and Clipper fans crossing their fingers that Blake Griffin can spark some motivation in Baron Davis to lead L.A.'s other team off the doormat and into the postseason. Legitimate claims for elite status can be made by no more than the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic, and Spurs, but every other team has a unique claim to the optimism that begs for just one chance to slay one of these giants come next April's playoffs. Potential sleepers and busts abound, they just don't know it yet. Let's start in the East.
1. Orlando Magic
Orlando made a splash in the offseason by letting Hedo Turkoglu go and trading for Vince Carter. Both were shrewd personnel moves for a team hungry to win now. Turkoglu clearly had his career year in 08-09, and has serious letdown potential with a big contract under his belt in Toronto. With the return of Jameer Nelson from a separated shoulder, coupled with the addition of Carter, the Magic will more than make up for Turkoglu's playmaking, ball-handling, and three-point shooting. Rashard Lewis is coming off a career year, and looks comfortable as well. This team is deep, talented, and now knows what it takes to win in the playoffs.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
The depth of the LeBrons is astounding. Adding Anthony Parker and the Big Windchill while subtracting Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, and Wally I-won't-try-to-spell-his-last -name streamlined the roster. Still, questions remain about Cleveland's outside shooting, ability to guard Dwight Howard, and whether or not they can resign LeBron. Unless they miraculously coax him into signing an extension early in the year, this is sure to hang over the team all season long. Still, this team is so versatile and talented that it won't have a drastic effect.
3. Boston Celtics
The success of the 09 installment of the Celtics hinges directly on Kevin Garnett's knees. If he can stay healthy, the Celtics will win 60 games in the ever-improving Eastern Conference. The additions of Marquis Daniels and Rasheed Wallace make an already-solid bench even stronger. The window is almost shut for the Celtics with the age of the Big Three and the rise of Cleveland and Orlando. If they want another title, they need to get it this year.
4. Atlanta Hawks
This represents the next best team after the drop off from the top 3 Eastern teams. The Hawks have a great core in Al Horford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and the aging Mike Bibby. The addition of Jamal Crawford bolsters last year's weak bench. No question this team is competitive, but some doubt lies in how consistent they can be to finish in the top half of the conference.
5. Washington Wizards
Gilbert Arenas has been given a clean bill of health, the impact of which cannot be measured for this team. Antawn Jamison was just declared out 3-5 weeks with a shoulder injury that could linger. This obviously hurts the Wiz significantly, but their over achievement without Arenas the last two years tells me that this team is used to playing without its heavy hitters. Other guys step in and get the job done. Brendan Haywood returns from injury, and Randy Foye and Mike Miller will help greatly off the bench. Make no mistake, if Arenas stays healthy, this team could be the one that nobody wants to play late in the season.
6. Miami Heat
If they trade for Carlos Boozer by the December, bump this up around 3rd or 4th. The Heat have a good thing brewing on South Beach. Dwyane Wade in a contract year = fantasy owner's dream. Mario Chalmers exceeded all expectations last season in starting all 82 games as a rookie and collecting 2 steals a game. His development will be crucial to alleviating some of the pressure on Wade. Michael Beasley has enticing potential at the small forward, if he can get his personal life together. Jermaine O'Neal is still an All-Star caliber player when healthy, and Udonis Haslem's 10 and 8 line is as dependable as a beautiful Florida sunset. Miami is another one of those teams you don't want to play come playoff time because Wade is transcendent and capable of taking over a whole series.
7. Chicago Bulls
This upstart squad might be the most fun to watch in the East. Derrick Rose looks like the next superstar point guard. Joakim Noah, Ty Thomas, James Johnson, and Taj Gibson form an extremely athletic and versatile frontcourt. John Salmons continued to blossom after coming over from the Kings at the deadline, and Luol Deng is a very productive scorer when healthy. The Bulls must learn from last year's epic playoff series with the Celtics if they want to win in the top-heavy East. One thing is for sure, they won't sneak up on anybody this season.
8. Charlotte Bobcats
I think this team is ready to make the jump. The core of Gerald Wallace, Ray Felton, Boris Diaw, D.J. Augustin, and the newly-arrived Tyson Chandler has unexpected overachiever written all over it. A lot of teams will have trouble matching up with the emergent Wallace, who has steadily gotten better for 3 years running and is an elite small forward. Augustin is electrifying off the bench, and Diaw is among the most versatile players in the NBA. What is any preview without a shamelessly bold prediction, right? Right?
9. Philadelphia 76ers
There is a lot to like about this team, but also plenty to dislike. Will Elton Brand make a strong return? More importantly, will he fit with this up-and-down style offense? Does Sam Dalembert like playing basketball? How will Lou Williams handle stepping into a starting role on a team with high expectations? This team is the hardest to predict in the East: as far as I'm concerned, they could finish as high as 6th, or miss the playoffs altogether. Much depends on Brand's bounce back from injury.
10. Toronto Raptors
11. New York Knicks
12. Indiana Pacers
13. Detroit Pistons
14. New Jersey Nets
15. Milwaukee Bucks
This will not be a happy year for Bucks fans.
Western Conference
1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Champs are loaded once again, and may have gotten even better with replacement of Trevor Ariza by the mercurial Ron Artest. If Artest can fill his role and keep his ego down, Kobe's hunger to reach Jordan's 6 titles will carry this team. The return of a healthy and adapted Andrew Bynum will be invaluable to a team that struggles on the glass at times and has defensive lapses. This team has all the pieces and as good a chance as anybody to play deep into June.
2. San Antonio Spurs
It's scary when the Spurs, who are already an elite team, are considered to have improved themselves more than any other team in the offseason. The additions of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, and DeJuan Blair strengthen an already discplined, tough, and cohesive squad. Tim Duncan is clearly declining, but still maintains his typical Hall of Fame caliber performance with unmatched consistency. Manu Ginobili is finally healthy, which makes a bigger difference than we realize. Tony Parker is as good as any point guard in the league at running his team's system. Make no mistake, the Spurs are as dangerous as they've ever been, and will give the Lakers a run for their money late in the playoffs.
3. Portland Trail Blazers
This team is full of some of the best young players in the league. Brandon Roy has developed into one of the 10 most valuable players to his team across the league. He continues to add something to his game every offseason that makes him a better overall player. LaMarcus Aldridge is sure to have a letdown season since signing his lavish extension late last week. NBA players are so predictably fickle when they mail in a season after cashing in. The real wild card in Portland is Greg Oden. So many question surround him: How good can he be? How will his presence affect the great chemistry his teammates have built over the last 2 seasons? Does he REALLY make them better? Can he average more blocked shots per game than injuries sustained? What will he do to top this ? Many "experts" are laying the pavement for a Blazer stinker this year, but I think they're going to build on last year.
4. Dallas Mavericks
The difference between this year's Mavs and Mavs of recent years? Not much. They picked up Shawn Marion, who, in the right environment, has played at an All-Star level. Dirk and J-Kidd just keep on ticking, and Jason Terry is about as good of a role player as you will find anywhere. Just a hunch with this team, they're deeper and seem more focused than ever before.
5. Utah Jazz
I don't like the distraction that Carlos Boozer creates for this team. In Salt Lake City, they play in an especially insulated environment and they're the only show in town. Who knows how this whole thing affects Paul Millsap now that he has his money. Does his ego shoot up like his salary does, leading him to demand a starting spot or a trade? Does Boozer come back strong from injury? The Jazz desperately need a return to All-Star status for Boozer if they hope to find a trade partner for him. Once Boozer leaves, look out for this team. They're solid 1-5 and very deep off the bench. Ronnie Brewer could give this team a HUGE boost if he can learn to shoot from the wing and develop a little knack for scoring when other guys are getting keyed on. Deron Williams is masterful, and continues his campaign to be the best point guard in the league in leading the Jazz to a league-best record at home.
6. Phoenix Suns
Fun-N-Gun is back. This offensive system is ageproof. You'll see it in Steve Nash and Grant Hill this year; it will look as if they're getting younger. I love everything about this team returned to its natural habitat. The Big Cactus experiment was doomed from the beginning and an inherent contradiction to the system. It was clear how they changed to accommodate him at Amare Stoudemire's expense. Nash is happy now that he has his extension and will lead this team back to the Excitement Scale mountaintop.
7. New Orleans Hornets
I don't want to talk much about the Hornets because, let's be honest, they're boring. The only thing keeping this team from a top-5 pick in the 2010 Draft is Chris Paul. The over/under on how many games his team plays before Byron Scott gets fired is 23.5. I dare you to take the over.
t8.Los Angeles Clippers
Even Mike Dunleavy can't keep this uber-talented team out of the postseason this year. A motivated and healthy Baron Davis is still a top-4 point guard in the league. Rumor has it that he is motivated and he is healthy. Blake Griffin is going to be fantastic down the road, and will contribute immediately. Gone are the days of oppression under Zach Randolph. Chris Kaman has finally been sent to the bench. Eric Gordon will be spurred on by Griffin while he learns the nuances of the back court with Davis. This team might clock in just under Phoenix on the Excitement Scale this year. LOOK OUT.
t8. Denver Nuggets
You know how there's the Super Bowl Hangover, when the Super Bowl loser sucks the next year? Well, we need a Coors Light-sponsored Western Conference Finals Hangover for the Nuggets. They were good, don't get me wrong. But how good were they? They have about the 7th most impressive roster in the West, and maybe Chauncey Billups didn't make that much of a difference. Is it possible that they overachieved, plain and simple? Either way, repeating last year's success would be quite a feat this season, especially with the ultra-competitive Northwest Division they play in.
10. Oklahoma City Thunder
This. Team. Is. Awesome. In 2 years, they'll have the potential to be a perennial top-5 team in the West. But we're talking about now. The reality is that this team is unfathomably young, constructed of almost entirely the draft picks of the last 3 years. Kudos to the front office for making great draft picks, even amidst the relocation and surrounding controversy. Kevin Durant is about to rocket into the stratosphere of the NBA elite, a place that he will occupy for the next 10 years. Russ Westbrook is a blur. If he can curb his erratic ball handling and shoot the ball better, look out for an under the radar All-Star selection. There will be no more compelling experiment to watch than this one all year long.
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Houston Rockets
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Memphis Grizzlies
15. Minnesota Timberwolves
Eastern Semifinals: Orlando over Washington, Boston over Cleveland
Western Semifinals: LA Lakers over Utah, San Antonio over Portland
Eastern Finals: Orlando over Boston
Western Finals: LA Lakers over San Antonio
NBA Finals: LA Lakers over Orlando
Predictable, I know, but these are the clear-cut best teams in their respective conferences, and it would be unwise to pick against either one. So we're headed for a rematch. And back-to-back titles for the Lakers.
The league could quite possibly have its highest level of parity right now since the calendar flipped 2000. Sit back, enjoy the surprises, relish in your fantasy squad's success, and prepare yourself for the marathon that is the NBA playoffs.
It is this optimism that gives Bulls fans hope for their young upstart, Spurs fans reassurance that Duncan and Popovich can STILL do their thing, that gives Laker fans confidence that Ron Artest is not an uncontrollable psychopath. It is this optimism that has Thunder fans raving about Kevin Durant and Co, and Clipper fans crossing their fingers that Blake Griffin can spark some motivation in Baron Davis to lead L.A.'s other team off the doormat and into the postseason. Legitimate claims for elite status can be made by no more than the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic, and Spurs, but every other team has a unique claim to the optimism that begs for just one chance to slay one of these giants come next April's playoffs. Potential sleepers and busts abound, they just don't know it yet. Let's start in the East.
1. Orlando Magic
Orlando made a splash in the offseason by letting Hedo Turkoglu go and trading for Vince Carter. Both were shrewd personnel moves for a team hungry to win now. Turkoglu clearly had his career year in 08-09, and has serious letdown potential with a big contract under his belt in Toronto. With the return of Jameer Nelson from a separated shoulder, coupled with the addition of Carter, the Magic will more than make up for Turkoglu's playmaking, ball-handling, and three-point shooting. Rashard Lewis is coming off a career year, and looks comfortable as well. This team is deep, talented, and now knows what it takes to win in the playoffs.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
The depth of the LeBrons is astounding. Adding Anthony Parker and the Big Windchill while subtracting Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, and Wally I-won't-try-to-spell-his-last -name streamlined the roster. Still, questions remain about Cleveland's outside shooting, ability to guard Dwight Howard, and whether or not they can resign LeBron. Unless they miraculously coax him into signing an extension early in the year, this is sure to hang over the team all season long. Still, this team is so versatile and talented that it won't have a drastic effect.
3. Boston Celtics
The success of the 09 installment of the Celtics hinges directly on Kevin Garnett's knees. If he can stay healthy, the Celtics will win 60 games in the ever-improving Eastern Conference. The additions of Marquis Daniels and Rasheed Wallace make an already-solid bench even stronger. The window is almost shut for the Celtics with the age of the Big Three and the rise of Cleveland and Orlando. If they want another title, they need to get it this year.
4. Atlanta Hawks
This represents the next best team after the drop off from the top 3 Eastern teams. The Hawks have a great core in Al Horford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and the aging Mike Bibby. The addition of Jamal Crawford bolsters last year's weak bench. No question this team is competitive, but some doubt lies in how consistent they can be to finish in the top half of the conference.
5. Washington Wizards
Gilbert Arenas has been given a clean bill of health, the impact of which cannot be measured for this team. Antawn Jamison was just declared out 3-5 weeks with a shoulder injury that could linger. This obviously hurts the Wiz significantly, but their over achievement without Arenas the last two years tells me that this team is used to playing without its heavy hitters. Other guys step in and get the job done. Brendan Haywood returns from injury, and Randy Foye and Mike Miller will help greatly off the bench. Make no mistake, if Arenas stays healthy, this team could be the one that nobody wants to play late in the season.
6. Miami Heat
If they trade for Carlos Boozer by the December, bump this up around 3rd or 4th. The Heat have a good thing brewing on South Beach. Dwyane Wade in a contract year = fantasy owner's dream. Mario Chalmers exceeded all expectations last season in starting all 82 games as a rookie and collecting 2 steals a game. His development will be crucial to alleviating some of the pressure on Wade. Michael Beasley has enticing potential at the small forward, if he can get his personal life together. Jermaine O'Neal is still an All-Star caliber player when healthy, and Udonis Haslem's 10 and 8 line is as dependable as a beautiful Florida sunset. Miami is another one of those teams you don't want to play come playoff time because Wade is transcendent and capable of taking over a whole series.
7. Chicago Bulls
This upstart squad might be the most fun to watch in the East. Derrick Rose looks like the next superstar point guard. Joakim Noah, Ty Thomas, James Johnson, and Taj Gibson form an extremely athletic and versatile frontcourt. John Salmons continued to blossom after coming over from the Kings at the deadline, and Luol Deng is a very productive scorer when healthy. The Bulls must learn from last year's epic playoff series with the Celtics if they want to win in the top-heavy East. One thing is for sure, they won't sneak up on anybody this season.
8. Charlotte Bobcats
I think this team is ready to make the jump. The core of Gerald Wallace, Ray Felton, Boris Diaw, D.J. Augustin, and the newly-arrived Tyson Chandler has unexpected overachiever written all over it. A lot of teams will have trouble matching up with the emergent Wallace, who has steadily gotten better for 3 years running and is an elite small forward. Augustin is electrifying off the bench, and Diaw is among the most versatile players in the NBA. What is any preview without a shamelessly bold prediction, right? Right?
9. Philadelphia 76ers
There is a lot to like about this team, but also plenty to dislike. Will Elton Brand make a strong return? More importantly, will he fit with this up-and-down style offense? Does Sam Dalembert like playing basketball? How will Lou Williams handle stepping into a starting role on a team with high expectations? This team is the hardest to predict in the East: as far as I'm concerned, they could finish as high as 6th, or miss the playoffs altogether. Much depends on Brand's bounce back from injury.
10. Toronto Raptors
11. New York Knicks
12. Indiana Pacers
13. Detroit Pistons
14. New Jersey Nets
15. Milwaukee Bucks
This will not be a happy year for Bucks fans.
Western Conference
1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Champs are loaded once again, and may have gotten even better with replacement of Trevor Ariza by the mercurial Ron Artest. If Artest can fill his role and keep his ego down, Kobe's hunger to reach Jordan's 6 titles will carry this team. The return of a healthy and adapted Andrew Bynum will be invaluable to a team that struggles on the glass at times and has defensive lapses. This team has all the pieces and as good a chance as anybody to play deep into June.
2. San Antonio Spurs
It's scary when the Spurs, who are already an elite team, are considered to have improved themselves more than any other team in the offseason. The additions of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, and DeJuan Blair strengthen an already discplined, tough, and cohesive squad. Tim Duncan is clearly declining, but still maintains his typical Hall of Fame caliber performance with unmatched consistency. Manu Ginobili is finally healthy, which makes a bigger difference than we realize. Tony Parker is as good as any point guard in the league at running his team's system. Make no mistake, the Spurs are as dangerous as they've ever been, and will give the Lakers a run for their money late in the playoffs.
3. Portland Trail Blazers
This team is full of some of the best young players in the league. Brandon Roy has developed into one of the 10 most valuable players to his team across the league. He continues to add something to his game every offseason that makes him a better overall player. LaMarcus Aldridge is sure to have a letdown season since signing his lavish extension late last week. NBA players are so predictably fickle when they mail in a season after cashing in. The real wild card in Portland is Greg Oden. So many question surround him: How good can he be? How will his presence affect the great chemistry his teammates have built over the last 2 seasons? Does he REALLY make them better? Can he average more blocked shots per game than injuries sustained? What will he do to top this ? Many "experts" are laying the pavement for a Blazer stinker this year, but I think they're going to build on last year.
4. Dallas Mavericks
The difference between this year's Mavs and Mavs of recent years? Not much. They picked up Shawn Marion, who, in the right environment, has played at an All-Star level. Dirk and J-Kidd just keep on ticking, and Jason Terry is about as good of a role player as you will find anywhere. Just a hunch with this team, they're deeper and seem more focused than ever before.
5. Utah Jazz
I don't like the distraction that Carlos Boozer creates for this team. In Salt Lake City, they play in an especially insulated environment and they're the only show in town. Who knows how this whole thing affects Paul Millsap now that he has his money. Does his ego shoot up like his salary does, leading him to demand a starting spot or a trade? Does Boozer come back strong from injury? The Jazz desperately need a return to All-Star status for Boozer if they hope to find a trade partner for him. Once Boozer leaves, look out for this team. They're solid 1-5 and very deep off the bench. Ronnie Brewer could give this team a HUGE boost if he can learn to shoot from the wing and develop a little knack for scoring when other guys are getting keyed on. Deron Williams is masterful, and continues his campaign to be the best point guard in the league in leading the Jazz to a league-best record at home.
6. Phoenix Suns
Fun-N-Gun is back. This offensive system is ageproof. You'll see it in Steve Nash and Grant Hill this year; it will look as if they're getting younger. I love everything about this team returned to its natural habitat. The Big Cactus experiment was doomed from the beginning and an inherent contradiction to the system. It was clear how they changed to accommodate him at Amare Stoudemire's expense. Nash is happy now that he has his extension and will lead this team back to the Excitement Scale mountaintop.
7. New Orleans Hornets
I don't want to talk much about the Hornets because, let's be honest, they're boring. The only thing keeping this team from a top-5 pick in the 2010 Draft is Chris Paul. The over/under on how many games his team plays before Byron Scott gets fired is 23.5. I dare you to take the over.
t8.Los Angeles Clippers
Even Mike Dunleavy can't keep this uber-talented team out of the postseason this year. A motivated and healthy Baron Davis is still a top-4 point guard in the league. Rumor has it that he is motivated and he is healthy. Blake Griffin is going to be fantastic down the road, and will contribute immediately. Gone are the days of oppression under Zach Randolph. Chris Kaman has finally been sent to the bench. Eric Gordon will be spurred on by Griffin while he learns the nuances of the back court with Davis. This team might clock in just under Phoenix on the Excitement Scale this year. LOOK OUT.
t8. Denver Nuggets
You know how there's the Super Bowl Hangover, when the Super Bowl loser sucks the next year? Well, we need a Coors Light-sponsored Western Conference Finals Hangover for the Nuggets. They were good, don't get me wrong. But how good were they? They have about the 7th most impressive roster in the West, and maybe Chauncey Billups didn't make that much of a difference. Is it possible that they overachieved, plain and simple? Either way, repeating last year's success would be quite a feat this season, especially with the ultra-competitive Northwest Division they play in.
10. Oklahoma City Thunder
This. Team. Is. Awesome. In 2 years, they'll have the potential to be a perennial top-5 team in the West. But we're talking about now. The reality is that this team is unfathomably young, constructed of almost entirely the draft picks of the last 3 years. Kudos to the front office for making great draft picks, even amidst the relocation and surrounding controversy. Kevin Durant is about to rocket into the stratosphere of the NBA elite, a place that he will occupy for the next 10 years. Russ Westbrook is a blur. If he can curb his erratic ball handling and shoot the ball better, look out for an under the radar All-Star selection. There will be no more compelling experiment to watch than this one all year long.
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Houston Rockets
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Memphis Grizzlies
15. Minnesota Timberwolves
Eastern Semifinals: Orlando over Washington, Boston over Cleveland
Western Semifinals: LA Lakers over Utah, San Antonio over Portland
Eastern Finals: Orlando over Boston
Western Finals: LA Lakers over San Antonio
NBA Finals: LA Lakers over Orlando
Predictable, I know, but these are the clear-cut best teams in their respective conferences, and it would be unwise to pick against either one. So we're headed for a rematch. And back-to-back titles for the Lakers.
The league could quite possibly have its highest level of parity right now since the calendar flipped 2000. Sit back, enjoy the surprises, relish in your fantasy squad's success, and prepare yourself for the marathon that is the NBA playoffs.
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