The Veteran vs. The Prospect
August 9th 2009 06:56
This man is J.D. Drew. He plays right field for the Boston Red Sox, and is the poster boy for one of baseball's major cautionary tales.
Professional baseball is unique among the major American sports for many reasons. The lack of a salary cap, minor league farm systems, and a player's union dominated by foreign players are just some of the bigger things that differentiate baseball from basketball and football. One of the more uniquely compelling aspects of baseball is the can't-miss prospect. This is the player with so much talent and potential that success at the major league level is a, well, can't miss proposition. One blog's top 40 list of 2009's top prospects can be found here, just to give you an idea of who all the trade deadline talked centered around last week.
Baseball offers a unique trade deadline experience, with sellers trying desperately to shed high-paid stars for the alluring young prospect (or a collection of prospects). An infusion of hard working, young, and cheap talent is welcome in every organization. Every team has a different philosophy when it comes to personnel; some teams, like the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox are not afraid to gut their farm system of hot prospects to acquire a big name player. Other teams (Marlins, Indians, Angels, Dodgers, and Twins) guard their homegrown prospects with double-barreled shotguns, C4, and a Howitzer at deadline time. Trades are the primary reason that some of the latter teams continually rank among the best kept farm systems in baseball, and why the former teams typically have the weakest. Its a polarizing component of strategy, with few times riding the fence. Most organizations either buy big names and surrender their touted prospects, while some teams abstain from the impact veteran and opt for patience with their prospects.
For the longest time, I couldn't figure out where I stood in this tension. I saw the merit and motivating reasons behind both strategies, but lacked the historical wherewithal to accurately determine which better serves a team in the long term. However, a close study of last week's trade deadline and a close half-decade following of my Angels' best prospects has made up my mind for me. My conclusion: prospects are "prospects" for a reason, they are no sure thing. When faced with a decision to trade a prospect or three for a perennial All-Star like Miguel Cabrera in December 2007, Alex Rodriguez in 2008 free agency, or Roy Halladay at this year's deadline, Jason Heim's Angels are trading the prospects every time.
(climbing onto my Angel soapbox...give me a second)
Why wouldn't we trade Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar and Joe Saunders and the late Nick Adenhart for a chance to land a potential Hall of Fame player in his prime- ESPECIALLY with no salary cap? I'm sick and tired of watching Wood rot in the AAA Salt Lake Bees' cleanup spot while never getting a fair shake to prove himself in the majors. His only fate is to be blessed by a change of scenery via trade; his split with the Angels is inevitable. Didn't the same thing happen with can't-miss third baseman Dallas McPherson 4 short years ago? Even guys who get their chance don't always pan out, like these guys.
The big market, high payroll teams like Boston, New York, and Philadelphia always get ridiculed for decimating their farm systems in high profile trades. I always snickered at them while watching my Angels continue to hoard and stockpile limitless potential. Guess what? Those 3 teams have won 7 of the 14 World Series' since the 1994 player's strike, and the Yankees lost two other times in the World Series in that time. Up until now, the joke was on me. No more. The results are so clearly in favor of the teams who mortgage the future to win while they can. I can't defend the Angel way anymore. Buy, buy, and buy a little more, Arte Moreno. You won't regret it.
Which leads to something that makes baseball so horribly unique: widening competitive imbalance. But that's a conversation for a different day.
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Comment by Schmoozer
Schmoozer
I feel for you. The Angels are a great team with probably the best manager in baseball, but the only way they are going to the World Series is with a lot of luck and playing up to their maximum best. Good luck and I hope they make the playoffs; they are playing great right now.