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Sunday NFL Betting Plays

November 11th 2012 12:46
Recap from yesterday: I finished the day 1-2 which puts me at 4-4 on the week. Today is the last day of the week so letís see if I can get above .500 for the week. Looking over the NFL card today there are a few plays that I like this afternoon. Here is what I am looking at in the NFL games today.

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current Line: Tampa Bay -3
Current O/U Line: 47.5


San Diego will enter this contest looking to slow down this Tampa Bay team that is riding a two game winning streak and are winners of three of their last four games.

For San Diego to compete in this game they are going to have to keep up with the scoring since Tampa has done an outstanding job putting points on the board as of late. San Diego is averaging 23.1 points per game this season in which they have scored 24 or more in three of their last four games. The Chargers bring a well balanced attack on offense in which they average 26.9 rush attempts per game and 32.9 pass attempts per game. The rushing offense is averaging 105.9 yards per game while the passing game averages 217.2 yards per game.

A major task for San Diego will be trying to slow down this Tampa offense. The Chargers this season is allowing just 19.6 points per game this season which drops to 18 points per game on the road. San Diegoís run defense has been solid this season. The Chargers are allowing 23 rush attempts per game for an average of 84.1 yards per game on the ground good for 3.7 yards per carry. The passing defense for San Diego is allowing 36.1 pass attempts per game in which opponents are averaging 237.8 yards per game through the air good for 10.3 yards per completion.



Tampa will bring an offense to this game that has been on fire. Tampa Bay this season is averaging 28.2 points per game in which they have averaged 37 points per game their last four games. Rookie running back Doug Martin has led this Tampa rushing offense that is averaging 27.8 rush attempts per game for an average of 131 yards per game good for 4.7 yards per carry. Josh Freeman has is not having that bad of a season in the passing game. Tampaís passing game is averaging 245.4 passing yards per game for an average of 13.9 yards per completion.

Tampa Bayís defense is allowing 23.1 points per game but the Bucs have had issues slowing down teams that have strong passing games. Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Robert Griffin have all been able to generate points on this Tampa pass defense. The Bucs are allowing 41.2 pass attempts per game in which opponents have averaged 321.1 yards per game through the air against them good for 12.1 yards per completion. The rushing defense has been the strength to this Tampa defense. Tampa is allowing just 77.2 yards per game on the ground in which opponents are averaging 3.4 yards per carry.

Both rushing defenses are very strong for these two teams. We should see plenty of passing in this game which is going to move the chains much quicker than the running game will. SD should be able to put some points on the board while Tampa should not have any problems either scoring on San Diego. I like a high scoring affair in this one that should finish in the area of 27-23 or even 30-24.

Over 47.5 for 1 unit.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Current Line: Detroit -1
Current O/U Line: 46


Detroit enters this contest starting heat up as they have won back to back games and are now winners of three of their last four in which they have gone 4-0 ATS the last four games.

Detroitís offense is starting to finally come alive. The Lions have scored 26 or more points in three of their last four games. This season Detroit is averaging 24 points per game. Of course everyone knows the strength of this Lions offense comes from the passing game they employ. Detroit averages 44.9 pass attempts per game in which they average 307.2 yards per game through the air for an average of 10.7 yards per completion. We wonít see too much of the running game from the Lions since they average just 25.2 attempts on the ground per game for an average of 103.6 yards per game good for 4.1 yards per carry.

Looking at the defense from this Lions teams you will see they have a very talented front four but after that the defense is subpar. Detroit is allowing 23.5 points per game this season but the defense has been looking better allowing just 17 points per game the last 3 games. Opponents are averaging 106.2 yards per game on the ground against the Lions for an average of 4.2 yards per carry. The passing defense is allowing 214.2 yards per game through the air for an average of 9.6 yards per completion.



Minnesota started the season 4-1 and have now lost three of their last four in which they have gone 0-3-1 ATS.

Minnesota is not a high octane offensive team. The Vikings will not score 30 points on you week in and week out, we have seen that since they have yet to score more than 30 in a game this season. Minnesota is averaging 22.7 points per game this season which has actually fallen to 19.3 points per game the last three games. We will see plenty of running from this Vikings team who continues to use Adrian Peterson has their go to guy. Minnesota is averaging 28.2 rush attempts per game in which they average 145.4 yards per game good for 5.2 yards per carry. The passing offense for Minnesota averages 31.6 pass attempts per game for an average of 188.6 yards per game, good for 9.3 yards per completion.

Minnesota started this season winning games with a subpar offense and outstanding defensive play allowing no more than 23 points in the first five games. Over the last four games we have seen the defense take a hit allowing 30 or more points in three of their last four games. On the season Minnesota is allowing 21.9 points per game which drops to 18.6 when playing at home. The Vikings are allowing 117.3 yards per game on the ground for an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The passing defense is allowing 221.1 yards per game for an average of 9.8 yards per completion.

Minnesota is really struggling right now and for them to get back in the win column they need to keep Detroitís offense off the field and pound Adrian Peterson to wear down this Lions defense. Minnesota won the first contest this season between these two teams as they got lucky since they gave Stafford plenty of time to make things happen since Detroit won the time of possession in that game and Stafford threw the ball 51 times for 319 yards. Stafford is getting hot and the Vikings cannot afford to allow that to happen again or it will be a long day for the Vikings. I am going to play the under since I feel Minnesota will try and control the clock this game.

Under 46 for 1 unit.

Houston Texas at Chicago Bears

Current Line: Chicago -1
Current O/U Line: 39.5


People may question me about making a play on these two teams since they are evenly matched but I find the over in this game to be a good play. Looking at this game I see numbers that I like that justifies why I am playing the over in this game.

Houston is a running team, the Texans average 35 rush attempts per game for an average of 138 yards per game on the ground for an average of 3.9 yards per carry. Houston gets to face a Chicago defense that allows just 20.4 rush attempts per game since most teams are afraid to run against Chicago. If you look though Chicago is allowing 4.3 yards per carry which is not going to hold up against Arian Foster since he has the play making ability to make big runs.



Chicago is in the same boat as Houston is for this game. Chicago averages 29.8 rush attempts per game in which they average 128.5 yards per game on the ground for 4.3 yards per carry. Opponents have feared running against Houston who is allowing just 20.5 rush attempts per game but they have allowed 4.0 yards per carry. Matt Forte is no Arian Foster but he does have the ability to pull out some nice runs.

Both of these teams are going to look to establish the run in which you would think that is going to control the clock. That wonít be the case in this game. These two teams will work the run game to set up the big plays downfield with their star wide receivers they both have (Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall). If these two teams employ this I will give the edge to Chicago since Houston has seen Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers tear the Texans secondary apart.

This is going to be an outstanding game to watch as a football fan. As a bettor you could be biting your nails through the entire game since it could go either way. I said though the over seems to be the best play in this game. I think we see these two teams end up in the range of 24-20 or even 24-21 type scoring game.

Over 39.5 for 1 unit.

Reminder: Don't forget to set your fantasy lineup and why not try playing a few daily fantasy contests today. You have the NFL and NBA that you can get into some contest with today to make a little bit of extra cash and have some fun while you are doing it.

Good Luck everyone!

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