Question #5 - Is the End Really Near?
February 27th 2007 21:38
You know, sometimes you just want to read something about puppies, or rainbows, or little kids playing in the hazy sunlight of a green July afternoon. If you are in the mood to read something like that at present, please, do yourself a favor and go to another post. Today's question is: are we near the end of the world?
If you believe what a large number of evangelical Christians believe, then you may be convinced that we are due for the imminent appearance of Jesus in an event known as the Rapture. According to RaptureReady.com, our current "Rapture index" is 156. Apparently this is not the highest it's ever been, but it's still higher than average (I guess it's sort of like having high, but not fatally high, cholesterol levels). The index is compiled by measuring various world events against a biblical measuring stick, and determining how it all adds up against the requirements necessary for Jesus' return. The core of this belief entails all of Jesus' devoted followers being magicked up to Heaven in the blink of an eye, leaving behind all of their troubles, earthly possessions-- even their clothes! The righteous multitude is whisked away to bask in God's presence, as well as having a front row seat to view the hell and carnage that the unfortunate sinners left on earth get to experience. The popularity of the recent Left Behind book series is good evidence of just how enamored with this idea some on the Christian right have become.
I wonder, though, what percentage of Christians know the entire story about the Rapture. I am willing to bet serious money that there is a sizable chunk who believes the Rapture to be biblical teaching. That is completely erroneous. There is, in fact, not one single mention of the Rapture at any point in the Bible. While the Book of Revelation describes an incredible assortment of bizarre and disturbing images, none of these images bears resemblance to the accepted idea of the Rapture. There's a good reason for this: no one thought of the Rapture until about 1830, when a very sick, very feverish, very delusional girl in Scotland named Margaret Macdonald had a "vision" of the Rapture, and how it would take place. These visions were disseminated to the masses by a man named John Darby. Mr. Darby was a vehement anti-Catholic, committed to turning people to Protestantism. Evidently, he found Ms. Macdonald's "revelation" supremely compelling, because he adopted the idea as his own and incorporated it into his preaching.
I'm not at all interested in entering into all the details of the Rapture, and the exact reasons why it is absurd. The Raptureready.com website referenced above should be sufficient for that, if anyone is interested in getting more details. Nor do I wish to discuss the aforementioned Book of Revelation. One need only crack open a Bible or click here to study that text. I would encourage anyone who has not read it to do so: it is, if nothing else, an entertaining tale of horror psychedelia. More importantly, just like the study of Rapture belief, it opens a window into the minds of those people who eagerly anticipate the end of the world.
That is the real source of interest to me. One would think that Apocalyptic stories would fill the listener with dread. Instead, these ideas are celebrated as the ultimate reward for the righteous and punishment for the damned.
Rapturists may be disinclined to worry about any other end-of-the-world possibilities, as sure as they are of their imminent ascension to their eternal paradise (chock full of gumdrop meadows, extra fluffy pillows, kittens, and lacking in gays, atheists, Jews, Muslims, Christians who aren't Christian enough...oh, everyone else, really). For those not of the belief that God is going to come at the end of the world rewarding the deserving and damning the blasphemous, there are more practical concerns. Namely, real reasons on how the world might come to an end.
1) Climate change - I don't have to go into too much detail here, I don't think, since you can't pick up a newspaper today without seeing more on the global warming issue. I can't even tell you how disinclined I am to get into the particulars of THAT debate, as tired as I am of hearing about it. And the bottom line is the same, whether or not humans are the cause. We know it's getting warmer. We don't know exactly what the long term effects of that are going to be, but we're fairly certain they're not good. This is one possible world-ender that is happening in slow-motion (although not slow enough for my taste!). We can either adapt or we can perish.
2) Comet/asteroid collision - This is probably the sexiest of the world-ending scenarios. It's the star player in the leading theory of dinosaur extinction, not to mention the subject of a truly awful action movie starring Bruce Willis. It's also the one possibility that we might be able to prevent. The NEAT (Near Earth Asteroid Tracking) Program, run by NASA, is charged with cataloging 90% of all large near-Earth asteroids by 2010. Since an asteroid is one of the only massive disasters for which we may have many years advance notice, it's well worth the effort to find them all now. We're not too far off, technologically, from being able to take steps to stave off impending space doom, given enough time to do so. So far, though, none of the asteroids found by the program is of imminent concern to humanity. This is extremely good news. However, there's still a lot left to find of the estimated 500-1000 potentially dangerous NEA's out there. Every one that we don't know about is a potential immediate threat to us.
3) Supervolcanic eruption - Supervolcanos are a very old threat, but have only entered the mainstream publics' consciousness fairly recently. Essentially, supervolcanos are volcanic eruptions on enormous scales. The volume of ejecta from a supervolcano is truly staggering: the largest can send over 2000 cubic kilometers of material flying into the atmosphere. As a comparison, Mt. St. Helens displaced about 1 cubic kilometer. There have been a small but significant number of these eruptions throughout earth's history. The Toba eruption, for example, took place about 72,000 years ago in Indonesia. The event deposited volcanic ash and debris across a massive portion of southeast Asia (as deep as 20 feet in some areas). Sulfuric acid ejected into the atmosphere led to acid rain, and the volcanic dust blocked out sunlight. Geneticists have made compelling arguments that the nascent human race was nearly wiped out during the event. A supervolcano would be, in my fairly uneducated opinion, the most serious disaster to befall humanity. Which is why it's so unfortunate that there's one located under Yellowstone National Park. And it's overdue to blow, according to some of the research. Most geologists are of the opinion that there is no immediate danger of an eruption. That is to say, it is entirely possible that it could erupt tomorrow, but the probability of that is quite low.
4) Ourselves - Nuclear war. Biological agents. Genetically engineered super-viruses. These are just some of the terrors we've concocted for ourselves, as if we didn't have enough to worry about. WMD has become a common phrase in the English language, which is so sad. Increasingly in the world today there are groups willing to use these devices, and rogue states potentially willing to provide them. To be fair, a lot of the news today regarding these matters is just fear-mongering and titillation. However, the seed of truth is there, in that the motive and the means exists for human-caused destruction on a massive scale. Another way we are a danger to ourselves is connected with the reasons above. In the event of an asteroid strike/super eruption/the Rapture, etc. the result will more than likely be warfare among the survivors. The cataclysm that claims all those lives will also devastate food and resource production and allocation. Nations will be forced to fight for the remaining resources, or condemn themselves to slow death.
The good news is that none of these things is at all likely to happen anytime soon (or at all). On any given day the odds of one of the above scenarios occurring is exceedingly low (especially the Rapture). The flip side of that, as already mentioned, is that any of the above could happen before you finish reading this sentence (except for the Rapture). With all the potential world-ending scenarios out there, it's easy to get caught up in worrying about things over which we have absolutely zero control. It always amuses me to hear or read speculation on how humanity will survive this or that disaster. My favorite is the discussion of how humanity will survive the death of the sun. You have to admire the optimism of such a view. My advice? Let's all try and make the best of what we've got right now, and not sweat too much about the Sword of Damocles dangling over our collective head.
If you believe what a large number of evangelical Christians believe, then you may be convinced that we are due for the imminent appearance of Jesus in an event known as the Rapture. According to RaptureReady.com, our current "Rapture index" is 156. Apparently this is not the highest it's ever been, but it's still higher than average (I guess it's sort of like having high, but not fatally high, cholesterol levels). The index is compiled by measuring various world events against a biblical measuring stick, and determining how it all adds up against the requirements necessary for Jesus' return. The core of this belief entails all of Jesus' devoted followers being magicked up to Heaven in the blink of an eye, leaving behind all of their troubles, earthly possessions-- even their clothes! The righteous multitude is whisked away to bask in God's presence, as well as having a front row seat to view the hell and carnage that the unfortunate sinners left on earth get to experience. The popularity of the recent Left Behind book series is good evidence of just how enamored with this idea some on the Christian right have become.
I wonder, though, what percentage of Christians know the entire story about the Rapture. I am willing to bet serious money that there is a sizable chunk who believes the Rapture to be biblical teaching. That is completely erroneous. There is, in fact, not one single mention of the Rapture at any point in the Bible. While the Book of Revelation describes an incredible assortment of bizarre and disturbing images, none of these images bears resemblance to the accepted idea of the Rapture. There's a good reason for this: no one thought of the Rapture until about 1830, when a very sick, very feverish, very delusional girl in Scotland named Margaret Macdonald had a "vision" of the Rapture, and how it would take place. These visions were disseminated to the masses by a man named John Darby. Mr. Darby was a vehement anti-Catholic, committed to turning people to Protestantism. Evidently, he found Ms. Macdonald's "revelation" supremely compelling, because he adopted the idea as his own and incorporated it into his preaching.
I'm not at all interested in entering into all the details of the Rapture, and the exact reasons why it is absurd. The Raptureready.com website referenced above should be sufficient for that, if anyone is interested in getting more details. Nor do I wish to discuss the aforementioned Book of Revelation. One need only crack open a Bible or click here to study that text. I would encourage anyone who has not read it to do so: it is, if nothing else, an entertaining tale of horror psychedelia. More importantly, just like the study of Rapture belief, it opens a window into the minds of those people who eagerly anticipate the end of the world.
That is the real source of interest to me. One would think that Apocalyptic stories would fill the listener with dread. Instead, these ideas are celebrated as the ultimate reward for the righteous and punishment for the damned.
Rapturists may be disinclined to worry about any other end-of-the-world possibilities, as sure as they are of their imminent ascension to their eternal paradise (chock full of gumdrop meadows, extra fluffy pillows, kittens, and lacking in gays, atheists, Jews, Muslims, Christians who aren't Christian enough...oh, everyone else, really). For those not of the belief that God is going to come at the end of the world rewarding the deserving and damning the blasphemous, there are more practical concerns. Namely, real reasons on how the world might come to an end.
1) Climate change - I don't have to go into too much detail here, I don't think, since you can't pick up a newspaper today without seeing more on the global warming issue. I can't even tell you how disinclined I am to get into the particulars of THAT debate, as tired as I am of hearing about it. And the bottom line is the same, whether or not humans are the cause. We know it's getting warmer. We don't know exactly what the long term effects of that are going to be, but we're fairly certain they're not good. This is one possible world-ender that is happening in slow-motion (although not slow enough for my taste!). We can either adapt or we can perish.
2) Comet/asteroid collision - This is probably the sexiest of the world-ending scenarios. It's the star player in the leading theory of dinosaur extinction, not to mention the subject of a truly awful action movie starring Bruce Willis. It's also the one possibility that we might be able to prevent. The NEAT (Near Earth Asteroid Tracking) Program, run by NASA, is charged with cataloging 90% of all large near-Earth asteroids by 2010. Since an asteroid is one of the only massive disasters for which we may have many years advance notice, it's well worth the effort to find them all now. We're not too far off, technologically, from being able to take steps to stave off impending space doom, given enough time to do so. So far, though, none of the asteroids found by the program is of imminent concern to humanity. This is extremely good news. However, there's still a lot left to find of the estimated 500-1000 potentially dangerous NEA's out there. Every one that we don't know about is a potential immediate threat to us.
3) Supervolcanic eruption - Supervolcanos are a very old threat, but have only entered the mainstream publics' consciousness fairly recently. Essentially, supervolcanos are volcanic eruptions on enormous scales. The volume of ejecta from a supervolcano is truly staggering: the largest can send over 2000 cubic kilometers of material flying into the atmosphere. As a comparison, Mt. St. Helens displaced about 1 cubic kilometer. There have been a small but significant number of these eruptions throughout earth's history. The Toba eruption, for example, took place about 72,000 years ago in Indonesia. The event deposited volcanic ash and debris across a massive portion of southeast Asia (as deep as 20 feet in some areas). Sulfuric acid ejected into the atmosphere led to acid rain, and the volcanic dust blocked out sunlight. Geneticists have made compelling arguments that the nascent human race was nearly wiped out during the event. A supervolcano would be, in my fairly uneducated opinion, the most serious disaster to befall humanity. Which is why it's so unfortunate that there's one located under Yellowstone National Park. And it's overdue to blow, according to some of the research. Most geologists are of the opinion that there is no immediate danger of an eruption. That is to say, it is entirely possible that it could erupt tomorrow, but the probability of that is quite low.
4) Ourselves - Nuclear war. Biological agents. Genetically engineered super-viruses. These are just some of the terrors we've concocted for ourselves, as if we didn't have enough to worry about. WMD has become a common phrase in the English language, which is so sad. Increasingly in the world today there are groups willing to use these devices, and rogue states potentially willing to provide them. To be fair, a lot of the news today regarding these matters is just fear-mongering and titillation. However, the seed of truth is there, in that the motive and the means exists for human-caused destruction on a massive scale. Another way we are a danger to ourselves is connected with the reasons above. In the event of an asteroid strike/super eruption/the Rapture, etc. the result will more than likely be warfare among the survivors. The cataclysm that claims all those lives will also devastate food and resource production and allocation. Nations will be forced to fight for the remaining resources, or condemn themselves to slow death.
The good news is that none of these things is at all likely to happen anytime soon (or at all). On any given day the odds of one of the above scenarios occurring is exceedingly low (especially the Rapture). The flip side of that, as already mentioned, is that any of the above could happen before you finish reading this sentence (except for the Rapture). With all the potential world-ending scenarios out there, it's easy to get caught up in worrying about things over which we have absolutely zero control. It always amuses me to hear or read speculation on how humanity will survive this or that disaster. My favorite is the discussion of how humanity will survive the death of the sun. You have to admire the optimism of such a view. My advice? Let's all try and make the best of what we've got right now, and not sweat too much about the Sword of Damocles dangling over our collective head.
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