Eastern Conference
October 7th 2009 02:40
A while back I did a quick and dirty analysis of the NHL, and what I expect to see out of various teams this year. It's harder to follow the daily grind of hockey than it is with football; more games and in too many time zones. So apologies now to the Western Conference. I can't stay up that late!
I did write that I think the worm has turned to some extent in that the power elite in the NHL now resides in the East. For years it was the West West West, residing mostly (and deservedly) in Detroit. But Chicago, St. Louis, Calgary, Anaheim and San Jose all have something to say about that. All that being said, though...this ain't the East.
There are very much a power elite in the East. You have Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington and Philly. And then you have everyone else. There are some quality clubs - the Rangers, Hurricanes, Canadiens and the Devils all come to mind, but all four of those clubs lack key elements which reside in the top four. Boston has Chara, Thomas and a host of smart and capable wingers and centermen. They are a very good club, fundamentally sound and play excellent defense. But losing Kessel will hurt in the long run because the Bruins lack one glaring element - a top goal-scoring machine. Kessel could have been that guy; he is definitely a 40-50 goal guy, and that's a lot of production.
But look at Philly, Washington and Pittsburgh. Yikes. I mean, like, holy smoke, dude. Philly - Richards, Briere, Carter. Defensemen Timonen and now Pronger. The intense Ray Emery in net. The Flyers can score at will, in any condition, at any time, and against any defense. You can't be sloppy on the power play because Richards is a key on the PK, and he has a finishing touch that is second to none. You can't sleep on the PP because the Flyers have weapons all over the place. Add to that the edgy nature of the Philly game. They like scrappy, intense games because they're built for it. They are a scrappy, intense team. Adding Pronger gives depth, but gives more intelligence and game-flow control on the blue line. Ask a Pens fan about how vital a great blueliner can be - without Gonchar the Pens are a different team. Now with Pronger back there with Timonen? The Flyers have a devastating lineup from top to bottom.
But then you look at Washington and think "my god. Can anyone stop them?" Ovechkin's torrid start is only the biggest headline. That team has scoring talent to spare. Green on defense, Backstrom and Semin. They can all score. Washington's biggest flaw still could be their defense, but most nights it won't matter. The Capitals are like the NHL version of a run-and-shoot offense. Who cares if you give up 4 goals a night when you can easily score 5 or more? Ovechkin's wizardry is otherworldly. If there is a player in the NHL who can get 100 goals in a season and break 200 points, its him. No one else is close. Ovechkin still needs to round out his defensive game a little more, and that will cost him the glory of points. But I think that he'll terrorize the NHL for the regular season and get smarter in the playoffs. The entire Capitals team has a bad taste in their mouths from losing to Pittsburgh last year. In a parallel, the Pens had a bad taste in their mouths after losing to Detroit in the Finals. And as Ovie himself said, sometimes you have to lose so that you can learn how to win. Goalie play with Varlamov will be scrutinized all year. If he acquits himself well, then the Caps vault to the top of the East, less than terrific defense or not. If he's average or so, then there are exploitable flaws. The only trouble with that is that you have to have an elite offense of your own to exploit them!
And then there's Pittsburgh. No team in the NHL is more gifted down the middle of the ice, bar none. Sidney Crosby is easily the game's most complete center. He can score, he can dish, he can play determined defense, he's smart, and he's utterly relentless. On his own team he's not the best scorer, but still competes hard to prove he's better than Malkin. And Geno has a touch not unlike Ovechkin. He makes the dazzling play look routine, and when he makes his own otherwordly play, you just have to watch in amazement. Pittsburgh's best weapon, though, is their third line centered by Jordan Staal. To have a third unit that will work against the opposition's best offensive line, yet be highly productive on the score sheet (and play a punishing puck possession game) is almost unfair. Backstop Fleury is usually up and down until the spring, at which time he shifts into another level. Their defense is sound, playing excellent positional hockey. It's a vastly underrated unit most of the time, but they are very effective. To beat Pittsburgh, you have to play a complete game. You cannot take any shortcuts against this team, because they will turn the tables instantly. That's the one aspect of this team that so far the Flyers, Capitals and Bruins have not demonstrated. While all three teams have top skill and dominating lines, they are not always a complete team. Because of that, they can be beaten. Pittsburgh is the one team that is truly a complete team. They are not better offensively than Washington, and maybe not better than Philly. They are not better defensively than Boston. They may have the best overall goalie of the four teams. But they play wonderfully as a team unit, roll lines with scoring touch, relentlessness and puck possession, have a very solid blue line and the entire team works as hard as Crosby each and every night. That makes for an elite team.
In the end, all of this discussion won't really matter until the playoffs. I cannot see any way in which these four teams don't make the playoffs; I have a hard time imagining that these four teams won't be the top four seeds in the East. I can easily foresee a situation in which the 4th team has more points than either the 2nd or 3rd team. I suspect that will come from the Atlantic between Pittsburgh and Philly, but who knows.
Why am I writing this? I watched a goodish portion of the third period and all of the OT between Philadelphia and Washington tonight. I was reminded why I enjoy the game of hockey so much, even with two teams against whom I hold serious dislike. The wizardry and grace, combined with the speed and physical nature of the game makes it the best sport in the world. I wish that when I was a kid my high school had a hockey program, and that I would have discovered it early. Alas, I did not, and so I have to watch like other fans. And I enjoy watching!
I did write that I think the worm has turned to some extent in that the power elite in the NHL now resides in the East. For years it was the West West West, residing mostly (and deservedly) in Detroit. But Chicago, St. Louis, Calgary, Anaheim and San Jose all have something to say about that. All that being said, though...this ain't the East.
There are very much a power elite in the East. You have Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington and Philly. And then you have everyone else. There are some quality clubs - the Rangers, Hurricanes, Canadiens and the Devils all come to mind, but all four of those clubs lack key elements which reside in the top four. Boston has Chara, Thomas and a host of smart and capable wingers and centermen. They are a very good club, fundamentally sound and play excellent defense. But losing Kessel will hurt in the long run because the Bruins lack one glaring element - a top goal-scoring machine. Kessel could have been that guy; he is definitely a 40-50 goal guy, and that's a lot of production.
But look at Philly, Washington and Pittsburgh. Yikes. I mean, like, holy smoke, dude. Philly - Richards, Briere, Carter. Defensemen Timonen and now Pronger. The intense Ray Emery in net. The Flyers can score at will, in any condition, at any time, and against any defense. You can't be sloppy on the power play because Richards is a key on the PK, and he has a finishing touch that is second to none. You can't sleep on the PP because the Flyers have weapons all over the place. Add to that the edgy nature of the Philly game. They like scrappy, intense games because they're built for it. They are a scrappy, intense team. Adding Pronger gives depth, but gives more intelligence and game-flow control on the blue line. Ask a Pens fan about how vital a great blueliner can be - without Gonchar the Pens are a different team. Now with Pronger back there with Timonen? The Flyers have a devastating lineup from top to bottom.
But then you look at Washington and think "my god. Can anyone stop them?" Ovechkin's torrid start is only the biggest headline. That team has scoring talent to spare. Green on defense, Backstrom and Semin. They can all score. Washington's biggest flaw still could be their defense, but most nights it won't matter. The Capitals are like the NHL version of a run-and-shoot offense. Who cares if you give up 4 goals a night when you can easily score 5 or more? Ovechkin's wizardry is otherworldly. If there is a player in the NHL who can get 100 goals in a season and break 200 points, its him. No one else is close. Ovechkin still needs to round out his defensive game a little more, and that will cost him the glory of points. But I think that he'll terrorize the NHL for the regular season and get smarter in the playoffs. The entire Capitals team has a bad taste in their mouths from losing to Pittsburgh last year. In a parallel, the Pens had a bad taste in their mouths after losing to Detroit in the Finals. And as Ovie himself said, sometimes you have to lose so that you can learn how to win. Goalie play with Varlamov will be scrutinized all year. If he acquits himself well, then the Caps vault to the top of the East, less than terrific defense or not. If he's average or so, then there are exploitable flaws. The only trouble with that is that you have to have an elite offense of your own to exploit them!
And then there's Pittsburgh. No team in the NHL is more gifted down the middle of the ice, bar none. Sidney Crosby is easily the game's most complete center. He can score, he can dish, he can play determined defense, he's smart, and he's utterly relentless. On his own team he's not the best scorer, but still competes hard to prove he's better than Malkin. And Geno has a touch not unlike Ovechkin. He makes the dazzling play look routine, and when he makes his own otherwordly play, you just have to watch in amazement. Pittsburgh's best weapon, though, is their third line centered by Jordan Staal. To have a third unit that will work against the opposition's best offensive line, yet be highly productive on the score sheet (and play a punishing puck possession game) is almost unfair. Backstop Fleury is usually up and down until the spring, at which time he shifts into another level. Their defense is sound, playing excellent positional hockey. It's a vastly underrated unit most of the time, but they are very effective. To beat Pittsburgh, you have to play a complete game. You cannot take any shortcuts against this team, because they will turn the tables instantly. That's the one aspect of this team that so far the Flyers, Capitals and Bruins have not demonstrated. While all three teams have top skill and dominating lines, they are not always a complete team. Because of that, they can be beaten. Pittsburgh is the one team that is truly a complete team. They are not better offensively than Washington, and maybe not better than Philly. They are not better defensively than Boston. They may have the best overall goalie of the four teams. But they play wonderfully as a team unit, roll lines with scoring touch, relentlessness and puck possession, have a very solid blue line and the entire team works as hard as Crosby each and every night. That makes for an elite team.
In the end, all of this discussion won't really matter until the playoffs. I cannot see any way in which these four teams don't make the playoffs; I have a hard time imagining that these four teams won't be the top four seeds in the East. I can easily foresee a situation in which the 4th team has more points than either the 2nd or 3rd team. I suspect that will come from the Atlantic between Pittsburgh and Philly, but who knows.
Why am I writing this? I watched a goodish portion of the third period and all of the OT between Philadelphia and Washington tonight. I was reminded why I enjoy the game of hockey so much, even with two teams against whom I hold serious dislike. The wizardry and grace, combined with the speed and physical nature of the game makes it the best sport in the world. I wish that when I was a kid my high school had a hockey program, and that I would have discovered it early. Alas, I did not, and so I have to watch like other fans. And I enjoy watching!
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