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Eastern Conference

October 7th 2009 02:40
A while back I did a quick and dirty analysis of the NHL, and what I expect to see out of various teams this year. It's harder to follow the daily grind of hockey than it is with football; more games and in too many time zones. So apologies now to the Western Conference. I can't stay up that late!

I did write that I think the worm has turned to some extent in that the power elite in the NHL now resides in the East. For years it was the West West West, residing mostly (and deservedly) in Detroit. But Chicago, St. Louis, Calgary, Anaheim and San Jose all have something to say about that. All that being said, though...this ain't the East.

There are very much a power elite in the East. You have Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington and Philly. And then you have everyone else. There are some quality clubs - the Rangers, Hurricanes, Canadiens and the Devils all come to mind, but all four of those clubs lack key elements which reside in the top four. Boston has Chara, Thomas and a host of smart and capable wingers and centermen. They are a very good club, fundamentally sound and play excellent defense. But losing Kessel will hurt in the long run because the Bruins lack one glaring element - a top goal-scoring machine. Kessel could have been that guy; he is definitely a 40-50 goal guy, and that's a lot of production.

But look at Philly, Washington and Pittsburgh. Yikes. I mean, like, holy smoke, dude. Philly - Richards, Briere, Carter. Defensemen Timonen and now Pronger. The intense Ray Emery in net. The Flyers can score at will, in any condition, at any time, and against any defense. You can't be sloppy on the power play because Richards is a key on the PK, and he has a finishing touch that is second to none. You can't sleep on the PP because the Flyers have weapons all over the place. Add to that the edgy nature of the Philly game. They like scrappy, intense games because they're built for it. They are a scrappy, intense team. Adding Pronger gives depth, but gives more intelligence and game-flow control on the blue line. Ask a Pens fan about how vital a great blueliner can be - without Gonchar the Pens are a different team. Now with Pronger back there with Timonen? The Flyers have a devastating lineup from top to bottom.

But then you look at Washington and think "my god. Can anyone stop them?" Ovechkin's torrid start is only the biggest headline. That team has scoring talent to spare. Green on defense, Backstrom and Semin. They can all score. Washington's biggest flaw still could be their defense, but most nights it won't matter. The Capitals are like the NHL version of a run-and-shoot offense. Who cares if you give up 4 goals a night when you can easily score 5 or more? Ovechkin's wizardry is otherworldly. If there is a player in the NHL who can get 100 goals in a season and break 200 points, its him. No one else is close. Ovechkin still needs to round out his defensive game a little more, and that will cost him the glory of points. But I think that he'll terrorize the NHL for the regular season and get smarter in the playoffs. The entire Capitals team has a bad taste in their mouths from losing to Pittsburgh last year. In a parallel, the Pens had a bad taste in their mouths after losing to Detroit in the Finals. And as Ovie himself said, sometimes you have to lose so that you can learn how to win. Goalie play with Varlamov will be scrutinized all year. If he acquits himself well, then the Caps vault to the top of the East, less than terrific defense or not. If he's average or so, then there are exploitable flaws. The only trouble with that is that you have to have an elite offense of your own to exploit them!

And then there's Pittsburgh. No team in the NHL is more gifted down the middle of the ice, bar none. Sidney Crosby is easily the game's most complete center. He can score, he can dish, he can play determined defense, he's smart, and he's utterly relentless. On his own team he's not the best scorer, but still competes hard to prove he's better than Malkin. And Geno has a touch not unlike Ovechkin. He makes the dazzling play look routine, and when he makes his own otherwordly play, you just have to watch in amazement. Pittsburgh's best weapon, though, is their third line centered by Jordan Staal. To have a third unit that will work against the opposition's best offensive line, yet be highly productive on the score sheet (and play a punishing puck possession game) is almost unfair. Backstop Fleury is usually up and down until the spring, at which time he shifts into another level. Their defense is sound, playing excellent positional hockey. It's a vastly underrated unit most of the time, but they are very effective. To beat Pittsburgh, you have to play a complete game. You cannot take any shortcuts against this team, because they will turn the tables instantly. That's the one aspect of this team that so far the Flyers, Capitals and Bruins have not demonstrated. While all three teams have top skill and dominating lines, they are not always a complete team. Because of that, they can be beaten. Pittsburgh is the one team that is truly a complete team. They are not better offensively than Washington, and maybe not better than Philly. They are not better defensively than Boston. They may have the best overall goalie of the four teams. But they play wonderfully as a team unit, roll lines with scoring touch, relentlessness and puck possession, have a very solid blue line and the entire team works as hard as Crosby each and every night. That makes for an elite team.

In the end, all of this discussion won't really matter until the playoffs. I cannot see any way in which these four teams don't make the playoffs; I have a hard time imagining that these four teams won't be the top four seeds in the East. I can easily foresee a situation in which the 4th team has more points than either the 2nd or 3rd team. I suspect that will come from the Atlantic between Pittsburgh and Philly, but who knows.

Why am I writing this? I watched a goodish portion of the third period and all of the OT between Philadelphia and Washington tonight. I was reminded why I enjoy the game of hockey so much, even with two teams against whom I hold serious dislike. The wizardry and grace, combined with the speed and physical nature of the game makes it the best sport in the world. I wish that when I was a kid my high school had a hockey program, and that I would have discovered it early. Alas, I did not, and so I have to watch like other fans. And I enjoy watching!
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Saying Goodbye

October 5th 2009 16:30
When I was a child in Pittsburgh, you went to Pirates and Steeler games at Three Rivers Stadium, and went to Penguins games at the Civic Arena. As this is the last year that the (not) venerable old building will be used for hockey, it's time to start saying goodbye in the same way that we said goodbye to Three Rivers.

Unlike Three Rivers, which was a concrete cookie-cutter only notable for its ugliness, the Civic Arena has always had a bit of a uniqueness about it. No other hockey palace in the NHL could open its roof. The dome has long been a notable part of Pittsburgh's skyline. And like Three Rivers before it, the Arena has some championship ghosts in it.

Having been to the Arena many times, I can firmly say that I like the building. The E and F sections, high above the goal areas at either end of the ice, provide for a unique view. Like any field end seat, you can see the horizontal game open up beautifully, but the vertical game elements are lost when the action is at the opposite end. The seats were kind of cramped, but being jammed up tight against the roof provided for an interesting vantage point. I always liked being up there, whether for a hockey game, or a Pitt basketball game (back in the 80s when they played 4 or 5 games a year at the Arena) or a concert. It was always tremendously loud up there, and part of the acoustical signature of the place was created by that metal roof.

Alas, a building designed and built over 40 years ago has very little in common with today's stadiums. The seating in some areas is less than wonderful; there are partially blocked seats in the Arena, something that new stadiums strive to eliminate. It is very difficult to retrofit the building for the luxury boxes, again something that all new stadiums have in excess. It lacks a second tier of seating at center ice. It's seating capacity is below most newer buildings. And let's face it - a 40 year old building is simply old by today's standards.

It's surprising in a way that the old Igloo in Pittsburgh is the NHL's oldest building. When you think about some of the glorious stadiums that used to dot the landscape, knowing that this is now the oldest is a sign. Good or bad, I'll leave that opinion to you. Would I prefer to watch the Canadiens play in the old Forum, the Blackhawks play in old Chicago Stadium or the Bruins battle it out in the old Garden? That part of me that believes the history of sport is vitally important says yes. The part of me that understands the current economics of sports knows that the answer must be no. So it will fade away, to be replaced by a new building, the Consol Energy Center. It won't have a fancy name or an iconic nickname like the Igloo. It'll be just another stadium in a sport in which there's nothing dramatic or special from one stadium to another. It'll have a roof, two tiers of seating, the wrap-around video boards, the huge JumboTron and luxury boxes all over the place. The amenities will be better, hopefully to the point where for concerts the ladies attending the show won't feel it necessary to use the men's room because the line to the women's bathroom wraps around the corner and down two flights of stairs.

You always wonder, however, whether the old ghosts will come along with the team to the new building. You wonder what new ghosts will take up residence. You wonder whether the magic of the old building will be found once more in the new. You have to wonder these things, even as you sit and marvel at the engineering of the new. An old building has a character unique to it. It's oddities are uniquely it's own. The new buildings are now built to a different standard, and it's unlikely there will be anything vastly different between the new building and 29 other buildings in the NHL.

As the Pittsburgh Penguins embark on their 2009-2010 season, they will hit the ice surface in the Igloo for the last time. Each game will move the team one step closer to that final game. One hopes, of course, that the final game in the Igloo is a game 6 or 7 in the Stanley Cup Finals, and one really hopes that it's Sid Crosby and his mates that hoist the silver Cup over their heads for a ceremonial skate around the ice. You'd be quite correct in saying that such an event would blow the roof off of the place. Or maybe, just maybe, if that happened, the powers that be would open that roof one last time, just for old time's sake, just to take in the last moments of an aging building. It would be a fitting way to say goodbye to a familiar home.
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2009-2010 Season Preview

September 25th 2009 16:03
In general, the NHL is perhaps harder to predict than any other sport. There are the usual variables that go into predicting any sport - injuries, trends, trades, and the like. But the game is so lengthy and so fluid that a team can go on a hot streak to start the season (a la Ottawa last year with their tremendous start) yet miss the playoffs, and a team can be mired in mediocrity yet go on a hot tear to end the season and make major waves in the playoffs. The conferences, too, are so challenging to predict, but there's one thing that I'm thinking has occurred in the NHL this year, and that is that the balance of power between conferences has shifted. There are several teams in the East that I think are Cup-worthy teams, and there are a smaller number now in the West. It's a bit of a turnabout.

Western Conference
The big dogs remain the same basic teams. The Detroit Red Wings have been, and will continue to be, the West's biggest dog. They are the most fundamentally sound team and have top talent all over the ice regardless of the line on the ice. They are about as well-coached as a team can get, and their front office ensures consistent competitiveness year in and year out. Finally, the Wings are in one aspect the envy of the entire league because they are now one of two teams that seems to understand that building and operating a team as a huge "family" pays big dividends over the years. Unlike previous years, though, the Wings enter this season with more questions than answers. Chris Osgood, normally sound in the playoffs, had a shaky regular season last year, and then the Pens got to him a bit in the Cup Finals. He needs to be that All-Star backstop for the Wings all year long. He's a lightning rod for criticism because most observers consider him to be the Wings' weakest link. They're normally not wrong on this, given the abilities of the team defense and the scoring power on offense. As for that offense and defense, key contributors were lost in the off-season, something Detroit has avoided for the most part. How will they replace Hossa's 40 regular season goals? Can their young players step up and get it done? In the long haul of the season, the Wings will be at or near the top of the West all year long. But they may have taken a small step backwards when it comes to the power elite in the West, and while that won't prevent them from making the playoffs, it may prevent them from making a 3rd straight run at a Cup Finals.

The San Jose Sharks made a big, splashy trade by acquiring disgrunted Ottawa forward Dany Heatley recently. That will improve the Sharks already-good offense. The knock on the Sharks hasn't been their regular-season performance, which has been very solid overall in the past few years. It's been their now-annual playoff collapses. The whispers about the Sharks continue to be toughness; something that no NHL team wants to ever hear directed at them. Yet there are few other reasons to give for the Sharks continued failures in the playoffs. They don't seem to be able to find that extra edge in the playoffs. Great teams face adversity well, such as a hot Anaheim team (to whom they lost last year). The Sharks are a very good team, but they've failed to find greatness. Whether Heatley is that missing link remains to be seen, but in my opinion, they failed to add any kind of physical or mental toughness. I have a very hard time believing that a PO'd played (such as Heatley) will magically erase the fallout from his whining. What if he gets hacked off at the Sharks coaches? What if he fails to find good chemistry with Thornton? Those are legit questions, and until they are answered in the playoffs, the Sharks will probably remain a big question mark.

The Chicago Blackhawks are exciting a lot of people in Chicago once again. They tapped into the deep veins of fan support in the town, and the one-two punch of Toews and Kane are the West's answer to Crosby & Malkin. Adding Hossa - despite the current injury - adds yet another offensive element. They are young and fast, tough and steady. The bright lights of the playoffs didn't overwhelm them, and they made Detroit work awfully hard for their trip to the Finals. The 'Hawks are a popular choice to represent the West this year because of that cadre of youth with its blend of veteran leadership, even though they suffered some major losses in the off-season. The Hawks underrated defense will go a long way in determining playoff positioning, because I think it's fair to expect Chicago to again make the playoffs. Once there...well, who knows what can happen.

The Vancouver Canucks made the playoffs last year using a tough-guy approach, and don't figure to change that any time soon. Their all-world goalie Luongo, however, failed again to provide that anchor backstop when it was most needed in the playoffs, resulting in a somewhat surprising bounce by the Blackhawks. They resigned key talent, including Luongo, but now need to prove that they are more than a 2nd-round playoff out.

There are several teams that are now lumped into playoff contenders, but being honest, probably don't have the horses necessary to get very deep into them. Teams such as Columbus, Nashville, St. Louis, Anaheim and Dallas all have stand-out players, and have done good things with them, but lack critical talent to move into the West's elite. All will scrap and play hard hockey, and will be in the mix late into the season. But to expect them to take that step up this year? Well, it'll take some proving, and I'm simply not ready to discuss those teams in depth.

Eastern Conference

The East's power elite remains centered on three teams, with two other teams knocking on the edge. The Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Boston Bruins will all duke it out all year for the overall #1 seed in the playoffs. Hot on their heels will be the Canadiens and Flyers.

The Lightning, Islanders and Thrashers will likely improve, but they face long odds in even making the playoffs. The Lightning and Thrashers will somehow have to beat out the likes of the Hurricanes and Capitals in their own division, and that's not likely. The Seantors would have to beat out the Bruins and Habs. Don't see that happening. The Panthers and Leafs are also in that unenviable position of looking up at superior teams. They'll win games, but someone from this group will be the East's worst team.

The New Jersey Devils seem to make the playoffs every year by using spectacular goaltending and solid team defense. They've added some lethal offensive weapons with their young stars, but everyone knows that the Devils are all about Marty Brodeur. He's an amazing talent, and he provides that stabilizing factor that they need. New (old) coach LeMaire will likely maintain that defense-first approach, which means that the Devils will generally win more than they lose, but (oh god) will be they boring in doing so. They're smart, however, in that it takes both dedication and patience to defeat the Devils, and since that's their long suits (and most teams don't have enough of either) they win. Plus, if you make a mistake, they pounce and score quickly. They've been doing it for years, and there's no reason to expect anything else this year.

The Rangers signed Gaborik, and we'll just have to see how things go. They've been a playoff team in recent years because of Lundqvist, and will probably be the same again. The Rangers fatal flaw is that they don't have a proven scorer who can put the team on his shoulders and simply get the job done. Gaborik has the touch; whether he has the stamina and can avoid injury is something else entirely.

Montreal is facing another topsy-turvy season. Will they return to 2007-2008 form in which they were the first overall seed in the East, or be like last year when they were the last team in (and first team out). It's hard to say, but their skill players are very good, and they have a bunch of guys that play solid team hockey. The trouble is that they are smaller and quicker, and more Eastern teams are moving to bigger and faster. Matching physical power is something they can't easily do, and Boston in particular simply out-hit them last year. They can't get out of their speed and finesse game or they'll get bounced. I like the team, but as for viewing it as a power? Nope.

The Hurricanes made a surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. Surprise in that the team seems to be completely no-name except for Staal. And Cam Ward. And it's Ward who's the real key to this team. When he's on his game, the Canes are as good as they get. Their biggest asset is a team relentlessness; they come in waves and don't stop no matter what the score is. They were turned inside out last year by the more skilled Pens, but that doesn't change the fact that this team has a great chemistry, key players who can score, and they simply know how to win. But given that the Canes didn't make many moves, and there's a higher degree of experience among the East's bigger dogs, it's hard to foresee them going all the way to the ECF again this year. Not to mention trying to unseat the Caps will be a truly tall challenge.

For Philly, the more things change, the more they stay the same. They lost a couple of key offensive players, but added Chris Pronger on defense for size and brute force. The Flyers are the NHL's answer to the Raiders, though, in that they are always crying foul. They firmly believe that the NHL calls their games differently in terms of physical play because they are always so physical (some say dirty). Adding Pronger to the mix won't change that team one damn bit, and they'll be whining about the calls going against them by the end of the first week. Much of it is their lack of discipline; they take dumb penalties at dumb times, and pay the price for it. They also have lacked a stand-out goalie. Can the Flyers get over the hump? I've seen opinions ranging from they are right in the mix for making the Cup Finals from the East to opinions having them missing the playoffs entirely. I don't think that's realistic because the Flyers have far too many offensive weapons in place. Think I'm wrong? Watch Richards for a game or two. He's that second-level star in the NHL. He'll never be a Crosby or Ovechkin, but he's so good its scary. He's the catalyst of that team, and his relentless nature means that the Flyers always play that way. And I don't mean "second-level" in a negative way; I only mean in terms of press coverage. Richards is on a level equal to Crosby or Ovechkin in my opinion, and should be treated with that same respect. Because of his leadership style, and because the Flyers really are a very good team, they'll be in the playoffs and vying for the title.

Now, the big three in the East: Pittsburgh, Washington and Boston.

Where the Pens and Caps are more in common with each other than with Boston, there are still parallels. The Bruins are big, fast, strong, have an excellent goalie and have top playmaking talent. Zdano Charro is a feared big-hitter, and with good reason, and his powerful slap shot has to be respected. Boston plays solid defense up and down the ice, and they can score at any time, with any line. They too have a degree of relentlessness, although I think it needs to be honed a bit more. They are physical, a long-standing Boston requirement, and are just as happy bludgeoning a team into submission as they are zipping pucks into the net with precision. I think that Boston actually likes it that way. They are what the Flyers aspire to be, to be honest. They had a great season last year, managed to keep virtually their entire team intact (although losing Kessel will hurt some) and should be a top contender for the Eastern Conference Title.

But in all honestly, in my opinion, the East is truly a two-horse race, and I think this is the year that all fans of hockey will be treated to one of the greatest Eastern Conference Finals in years. Frankly, I believe that by the time this season is over, the comparisons between the Caps and Pens will be made between the 90s-era wars between the Aves and Wings. There's simply too many similarities between the two teams to not believe that this won't be the case.

The Pens lost two critical components on defense. Scuderi and Gill turned into the Pens lock-down defensive pairing last year. Ovechkin was so sick and tired of Scuderi that he was ready to impale him by the end of the playoffs last year. Gill, despite his slow feet and lumbering nature, was an excellent positional defensive player. Replacing those two will fall to the younger blueliners, and Jay McKee (if he remains healthy) will be one part of that, finding the second will be a season-long question. On offense, if there's a question, it's to ask who will be the wingers for the Pens' sensational centers. Guerin and Crosby found instant chemistry and should build on that; Bill Guerin will probably have his best regular season scoring-wise in years. Losing Sykora may hurt Malkin, but here's wondering if this isn't the year in which Malkin becomes the Pens' biggest star offensively. I don't think there's any question that he's better than Crosby (slightly, but noticeably) in terms of pure offensive production, and as he continues to turn into that top two-way player, things just get better and better. Fleury in goal is solid, but seems only to play really good hockey in the latter half of the year. He needs to put together a solid beginning to end season, and I think he's capable. His biggest problem is that he too often seems to play the game using only his tremendous athletic ability; it's only when its crunch time that he bears down and uses his mental toughness as well. Once again, the best two-way line on the Pens will be their third unit centered by Staal. This is an energy unit with good offensive talent - in other words, exceptionally dangerous.

The Capitals were furious last year after being blown out in game 7 against the Pens. It sickened them. And many believe - Ovechkin among them - that you have to learn how to win by losing. If that's true, then this may be the Caps year. The Caps offense is lethal. Just plain scary. A smidge better than Pittsburgh's, making it the best offense in the NHL. Ovechkin could do that alone; adding Backstrom and Green and Semin into the mix just makes it that much better. Varlamov was a find in the playoffs; assuming he's going to improve means that the Caps goaltending is set. The question this year - like it was last year - will be defense. Too often the Caps were caught flat-footed, out of position, and flat-out beaten by the Pens offensive talent. They don't need to be defense stalwarts to win games, but they have to be better. They have to be smarter, and they have to be in the right position. They may not have the blueline talent to shut down great offenses, but in the long run if they are positionally better, funneling the play to the boards, their offensive guys will score enough to win the vast majority of games. The Caps don't need to be great defensively, but they need to be above average. There are too many good offensive teams in the East - teams that can at least battle to a draw against the Caps offense - which puts the pressure squarely on the blueline. Play smart, positional defensive hockey and they'll win the Cup. Fail to do that, and they'll spend another long summer asking "what if."

Overall, I think that the smart money will be either on Boston or Washington to represent the East, and in Chicago or San Jose for the West. Why not the two obvious choices, Pittsburgh and Detroit? Well, a third-straight year of them facing off in the Finals would be glorious for the NHL and for the fans in Pittsburgh and Detroit, but that would be simply astounding. To get to the FInals, you have to be great, and you have to get some bounces. For that to happen for both teams three years in a row is asking an awful lot. Are both teams capable? Yes, of course they are. Is it likely? No. Just...no. I think that this may be the Caps year. I just think that they're poised to take the Cup this year. Ovie won't be denied, and they will do enough all year long to ensure home ice. And I think in the playoffs, they'll be ready to exact a measure of revenge against Pittsburgh. Assuming no major injuries and things remain basically the same, I can easily foresee this being the 2nd of at least 5 incredible playoff series between these two squads. And in the west? I think that Chicago will do it. Why? I think they're slightly mentally tougher than San Jose, and I just like how they built this team.
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Welcome!

September 25th 2009 15:16
This is my third blog. It will cover both the NHL and the Pittsburgh Penguins in particular. I'm a Pens fan, and a big hockey fan. It'll be less populated with entries until football season is over because it's awfully challenging to write a bunch about the NHL when football takes precedence in most people's minds. But for those people that enjoy thinking about hockey, this is a blog for you. Thanks for reading.
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