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Ok…I've had a few hours to let this digest. Here is what I think…
At first I was outraged. How could JZ trade Michael Pineda for DH??? Then i read there were other players involved. So i began thinking about Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, Eduardo Nunez, and even Ivan Nova. So I was little more excited. Then unread it was Pineda and Jose Campos for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi and was not happy at all! How could the Mariners give up Pineda for this!?!?
But now I've thought about it for a few hours and have calmed down. The New York Yankees got themselves a heck of a pitcher and he's very young and under club control for 5 more years. And Campos is 19 year old kid who was the #5 prospect in the Mariners' system. If he continues to develop he could be #3 for the Yankees. The Mariners gave up a lot.
What the Mariners received though is nothing to balk at. Jesus Montero is the best hitting prospect in baseball not named Bryce Harper. Montero easily becomes the best power bat in the Mariners' lineup. Hector Noesi is the Wild Card in all of this. Prior to 2011 Noesi was a better prospect than Ivan Nova. But if Noesi can be a .500 pitcher with 4.50 ERA from the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation then the Mariners will take that.
Now the risks involved are massive on both on sides. Michael Pineda has history of injuries throughout his minor league career. Last season was his first injury free season and the injuries have been arm related. Michael Pineda is a two pitch pitcher. He throws a high 90s fastball and a nasty slider that is devastating to righties. But he gives up a lot of fly balls. In SafeCo field a lot of those turn into outs. At Yankee Stadium those might be homeruns.
Jesus Montero might come with more risks though. While he is under team control for 6 more years all reports are that he is a DH long term. It's tough to trade a potential ace for a DH no matter bow good he hits. With an upside that equals Miguel Cabrera though it could be a risk worth taking. The Mariners intend to make Montero a catcher and see if he can stick.
So I've decided I like the trade from the Mariners stand point. The Mariners have young arms close to ready (Erasmo Ramirez, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker) so they help absorb the hit of losing PIneda. If Montero can catch then i think its a win for the Mariners. Hopefully hencan catch "as well" as Mike Piazza. Seattle will be able to find pitching but they desperately needed a bat. And the Yankees win too. This is a case where
both teams gave up a lot but if things work both teams got great players.
I am sick of year after year the Seattle Mariners and their fans continuing to think small. As a Mariners' fan I am aware that they have as much money as most teams, just refuse to spend it. What follows is going to be an elaborate plan to turn the 67 - 95 Mariners into a playoff contender. If you follow closely you'll see how realistic that is. So, let's start with the "probable" 2012 Opening Day Roster...
C - Miguel Olivo
1B - Justin Smoak
2B - Dustin Ackley
3B - Chone Figgins
SS - Brendan Ryan
LF - Casper Wells
CF - Franklin Gutierrez
RF - Ichiro Suzuki
DH - Mike Carp
John Jaso
Kyle Seager
Trayvon Robinson
Carlos Peguero
Alex Liddi
1) Felix Hernandez
2) Michael Pineda
3) Jason Vargas
4) Blake Beaven
5) Charlie Furbush
CP - Brandon League
RP - Chance Ruffin
RP - George Sherrill
RP - Tom Wilhelmsen
RP - Shawn Kelley
RP - Mauriciio Robles
As I have already posted, I believe they should trade Carlos Peguero to the White Sox for Adam Dunn and then send Dunn, Chone Figgins, and Jason Vargas to the San Francisco Giants for SP Barry Zito and Aubrey Huff. I think Huff can be a very effective bat off the bench and play 1B, 3B, LF, RF if needed because of injury and can DH occasionally. And Zito should be able to get his career on track a little better. Seattle can always find pitching because of their ballpark. The White Sox make the trade because Peguero is much younger and cheeper than Dunn and after last season he might even be better. The White Sox just traded Carlos Quentin to San Diego for a couple of young pitchers so they could use some offense. For the Sox this is a salary dump and really not much more. For the Giants they get a power hitter with Adam Dunn. I don't think Dunn is completely washed up but sending him back to the NL could help. Dunn will be a LF option for the Giants or he couple play 1B depending on what the Giants do with Brandon Belt. Chone Figgins moves to the NL where his style plays better. His speed and versatility allow him to be a super utility player and in a league where double switches happen all the time and flexibility is important Figgins fits right in. Plus is a salary swap with Zito. Jason Vargas fils in as a quality LHP and if the Giants find themselves in need of a bat at the deadline they could trade a guy like Matt Cain. But for now Vargas replaces the departed Jonathan Sanchez.
I would also still contact the Cincinnati Reds. I would offer them closer Brandon League and OF Casper Wells for OF Drew Stubbs. This is a no brainer for the Reds who still need a closer and with the NL Central being so wide open they could really make a run at it. League is an All - Star closer and Casper Wells is a talented LF who has never gotten the ABs he deserves. In a hitters park like Great American Ballpark he could blossom. Wells is not as fast as Stubbs but he offers a lot more hitting ability. So why would my Mariners make his trade? You don't need a closer when you can't even win 70 games. Drew Stubbs has had a tough time making contact (205 Ks in 2011) but his speed is appealing. He stole 40 while compiling a .243 15 HR 44 RBI. Sadly, that make him one of Seattle's best hitters Chris Heisey replaces anything the Reds lose in Drew Stubbs.
So no let's look at the Mariners roster...
C - Miguel Olivo
1B - Justin Smoak
2B - Dustin Ackley
3B - Alex Liddi
SS - Brendan Ryan
LF - Drew Stubbs
CF - Franklin Gutierrez
RF - Ichiro Suzuki
DH - Mike Carp
John Jaso
Aubrey Huff
Trayvon Robinson
Michael Saunders
Kyle Seager
1) Felix Hernandez
2) Michael Pineda
3) Barry Zito
4) Blake Beaven
5) Charlie Furbush
CL - Chance Ruffin
RP - Shawn Kelley
RP - George Sherrill
RP - Mauricio Robles
RP - Charlie Furbush
RP - Tom Wilhelmsen
The bullpen is weak and I understand that. BUT...the starters are still decent and the lineup is looking better. And I'm not done. Next I'm calling Josh Byrnes in San Diego and offering him RP Tom Wilhelmsen, OF Guillermo Pimentel, SP Forrest Snow, SP Erasmo Ramirez for C Yasmani Grandal. Pimentel and Ramirez are prospects. Pimentel could be a pretty good OF starter and Ramirez could be a mid rotation starter. Forrest Snow probably projects as a #4 or #5 or long reliever. Wilhelmsen is a big very hard thrower who could be a late inning reliever. Yasmani Grandal is a switch hitting catcher that is very good defensively and has an emerging bat. He hit .305 14HR 68 RBI in 2011 in the minors. He become Seattle's top catching prospect immediately. So why would the Padres do this? For Pimentel. It's basically swapping Pimentel for Grandal and then San Diego gets a couple of other pieces. Plus the Padres already have young catcher Austin Hedges who predicts to be almost as good as Grandal. But I prefer Grandal.
So now this is how things look...
C - Miguel Olivo
1B - Justin Smoak
2B - Dustin Ackley
3B - Alex Liddi
SS - Brendan Ryan
LF - Drew Stubbs
CF - Franklin Gutierrez
RF - Ichiro Suzuki
DH - Mike Carp
John Jaso
Aubrey Huff
Trayvon Robinson
Michael Saunders
Kyle Seager
1) Felix Hernandez
2) Michael Pineda
3) Barry Zito
4) Blake Beaven
5) Danny Hultzen
CL - Chance Ruffin
RP - Shawn Kelley
RP - George Sherrill
RP - Mauricio Robles
RP - Charlie Furbush
RP - Stephen Pryor
From this point on things get VERY interesting. And you need to keep an open mind because the names getting traded are pretty impressive.
MIAMI MARLINS GET:
Michael Pineda
Brendan Ryan
COLORADO ROCKIES GET:
Hanley Ramirez
Mike Carp
Nick Franklin
SEATTLE MARINERS GET:
Troy Tulowitzki
Chris Volstad
I know on the surface this trade scenario seems out of the question. But give me a moment to sway you.
Prior to last season Hanley Ramirez was not only far and away the top offensive short stop but one of the top 5 or 10 hitters in the entire game. He was not good defensively but he seems to want to stay at short stop. I don’t buy his new attitude and being ok moving to third base. To put this whole deal in a nut shell the Marlins are trading a problematic, infielder with incredible offensive skills who tends to take plays off and not hustle (a la Randy Moss), and a number 6 or 7 starter to the Seattle Mariners for a defense first, light hitting infielder, and a potential future ace pitcher who, oh by the way is only 22. The Marlins now have that second horse in the rotation behind Josh Johnson and unload Hanley Ramirez who I believe could be a problem down the line. Chris Volstad to Seattle doesn’t hurt Florida because he won’t even be in their rotation with this trade (Johnson, Pineda, Buerhle, Nolasco, Sanchez) and Brendan Ryn to Miami gives the marlis an excellent utility infielder.
The Mariners then turn around and ship Ramirez along with Carp (a left handed hitting OF/1B who is better right now than Todd Helton in the power department and will be their 1B of the future. He is a patient hitter who is still young and developed power in his last two years) and Nick Franklin (a switch hitting short stop with some pop. May eventually become a 2B. Not a bad thing the Rockies need one of them as well) to the Colorado Rockies for Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo is maybe the best all around player in the game. BUT…he does it in Colorado. In Seattle his power dips a little bit.
Look this over…it’s doable. Plus it’s $15 million per year off the Rockies books! Next I turn around and show this trade to Prince Fielder and show him he can win in Seattle and ive him 6 years and $138 million. I’m not a huge Fielder fan and think this could be an awful contract but it works in the very near future. So what do MY 2012 Mariners look like??
C - Miguel Olivo 1) Ichiro
1B - Justin Smoak 2) Ackley
2B - Dustin Ackley 3) Tulowitzki
3B - Alex Liddi 4) Fielder
SS – Troy Tulowitzki 5) Smoak
LF - Drew Stubbs 6) Liddi
CF - Franklin Gutierrez 7) Gutierrez
RF - Ichiro Suzuki 8) Olivo
DH – Prince Fielder 9) Stubbs
John Jaso
Aubrey Huff
Trayvon Robinson
Michael Saunders
Kyle Seager
1) Felix Hernandez
2) Danny Hultzen
3) Chris VOlstad
4) Blake Beavan
5) Barry Zito
CL - Chance Ruffin
RP - Shawn Kelley
RP - George Sherrill
RP - Mauricio Robles
RP - Charlie Furbush
RP - Stephen Pryor
I know everyone is going to think I’m nuts but just look this over with an open mind. I think it’s VERY doable. Might have to swap out a piece or two here ad there but the main players are tradable.
I'm sick of Mariner fans being excited about the prospect of Jeff Francis and signing John Jaso and wanting players like Alex Gordon to be the middle of the order bat we need. Let's do something and make it big!
This is in response to Fox Sport's Ken Rosenthal's article suggesting that the Seattle Mariners should trade SP Felix Hernandez. Enough already! This is the 3rd straight season that baseball fans have been bombarded with ridiculous articles claiming the Mariners have no choice but to trade their All World starting pitcher. I'm fully in favor of keep Hernandez. When a top two or three pitcher in all of baseball tells you that at the age of 25 he does not want to play baseball for any other team and wants to a Seattle Mariner for the rest of his life you DON'T TRADE HIM! If in 2014 he tells you he wants to leave then ok, trade him. But right now it would be ridiculous.
If the Mariners wait things out and don't do anything serious with their pitching staff.they could go into 2013 with a rotation that looks like Hernandez, Danny Hultzen, Michael Pineda, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker. nd baring any other major player moves around the league this would be the best ortation in baseball. Nick Franklin could be starting at short stop by that time and if he reaches potential (which rarely happens) then he could be a solid every day shortstop. No reason he couldn't be a .280 15 HR 25 SB guy. He would join Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak (who when healthy could be a best in the middle of the order - look at the first two months of the 2011 season) and be a league average lineup which with that rotation would make you a contender.
But...there is a chance that things don't work out and instead of putting all five of those guys in the rotation, the Mariners feel they can be fantastic with just four of them, and trade Felix Hernandez. The team that the New York Post has conceded he will pitch for is the New York Yankees. The Yankees could make an interesting offer that would start with C Jesus Montero, INF Eduardo Nunez, C Austin Romine, SP Ivan Nova, and SP Dellin Betances. But to me, that doesn't get it done. Montero is never going to be anything other than a DH. He can't catch. Flat out CAN. NOT. CATCH. Romine would be a nice "piece" and Nunez is a decent infielder that could be productive but neither of those bats are impact bats. And they are ALL right handed. SafeCo field is MURDER on right handed hitters. Nova would be nice and could pitch well in SafeCo field. But keep in mind that while he did get 16 wins last year he had the second highest run support in baseball at more than 7 runs per game. He might get half of that for the Mariners and now he's a .500 pitcher. Betances looks more like he will be a power reliever so I'm not sure he is the centerpiece. And that's the problem with the Yankees. I don't see any of their prospects being centerpieces. Any trade to New York, for me, would have to start with 2B Robinson Cano. And since I don't see the Yankees trading Cano I don't think the Yankees are a fit. For me I would need to get Cano, Brett Gardner, Jesus Montero and and two of Nova, Hector Noesi, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos. Yes that is a ton to give up for Hernandez but other than Cano is there anyone in the trade the Ynkees can't easily replace? It's a lot but not a lot for the Yankees to give up.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS: The Blue Jays could make an offer. It would need to start with 3B Brett Lawrie. Additionally I would ask for Travis D'Arnaud, Anthony Gose, Derek McGuire, Jake Marisnick.
TEXAS RANGERS: Martin Perez, Jurickson Profar, Leonys Martin, Engel Beltre, Derek Holland.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS: Now let's get crazy for a moment and imagine a starting rotation that looks like Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman. Would the Nationals put together a package like Bryce Harper, Derek Norris, Ryan Zimmerman, and AJ Cole.
Now that I've said that I want to state that I am against a trade that involves Felix Hernandez and I would much rather deal Michael Pineda in a Mat Latos-like trade. Pineda is a younger and has ace potential but also could get hurt. But I would much rather move Pineda than Felix Hernandez.
Prior to 2011 Hanley Ramirez was in the conversation for best player in baseball While his defense was only as good as passable at short stop he had a batting title to his credit, was a routine .300 hitter with 30 HRs and also 30 stolen base speed.
But with the recent addition of Jose Reyes, the Miami Marlins have a decision to make. The Marlins now have two All-Star short stops and the incumbent, Ramirez, is being asked to shift to third base. Ramirez would rather switch teams than switch positions. So do the Marlins shift him to the left and deal with him being unhappy (he has a history of poor work ethic and poor attitude) and hope he produces the way he's capable? Or do they move him to another team that could use him at short stop. Keeping Ramirez at third base would make the Marlins VERY dangerous in the NL. But with Ozzie Guillen now managing Ramirez I think they will clash and Ramirez will shut down his poor work ethic will get worse. So if I'm in charge of the Miami Marlins, I trade. This is where it gets fun...where do you trade him
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Not that most days are good days but recently Mariner fans like myself could begin to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Texas is a very good team but they keep getting a little weaker and older. The Mariners have some good young talent coming up and by 2013 the M's could compete for the playoffs. Then yesterday happened...
The LA Angels signed Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. ATTENTION MARINERS FANS...GO FIND A LEDGE! Now the Angels will be a very good team for the next five years. Their rotation is Phillies-esque with Weaver, Haren, Santana, and Wilson. Their lineup looks very good with Mike Trout, Pujols, Trumbo, Iannetta, Abreu, and Hunter. And suddenly competing in the next 2 - 3 years looks bleak. Looks like it might be time for the Mariners to look at a 5 year plan...AGAIN
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This was not the post I planned to make today but since the Marlins are stealing all the headlines I thought this was a good opportunity to discuss the Jose Reyes signing and an outlook for the Marlins.
First, I still don't think signing Jose Reyes was a smart move for the Marlins. Did they not know that they already had an All-Star short stop (who by the way has zero interest in switching positions)? And giving Reyes $ million a year is outrageous! He is in his prime, yes, I get that. But he is a player who makes his living on speed (just like Carl Crawford) and Reyes has a history of leg injuries. And for Jose, when that speed begins to decline he isn't stealing bases left and right he becomes a below average player. He is a basically a .300 for his career who has averaged, wait for it...wait for it...9 home runs! And while he is above average defensively he is not a gold glove player! The Marlins lineup would look pretty good if you had Reyes and Ramirez at the top but it doesn't sound like Ramirez has ANY interest in switching to 3B or LF. So that means you are basically replacing Ramirez with Reyes and paying him a lot more money. If Ramirez stays...then I like this signing a little bit more. It all hinges on if Reyes can stay healthy and steal close to 70 bases or more like he used to and not a 41 that he has averaged for his career. I hate to say this but Jose Reyes and Brett Gardner are very similar players offensively and no one would every dream of giving Brett Gardner $17 million a year. Reyes had his career best season in a (surprise surprise) contract year. I think the Marlins made a mistake from a strictly baseball point of view
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What is there to say after such a disastrous 2011 season? There is blame to go around and supposedly the appropriate heads have rolled (Francona and Epstein). Now Ben Cherrington is in charge of the front office and Bobby Valentine is in control on the field. I think there are some moves that need to be made but there is no need to get crazy. Remember, for most of the season this was the best team in baseball. I think they need some pitching help and might need to tweak some things here and there.
As I mentioned in a previous post I thought the Red Sox should trade Kevin Youkilis in a three team deal to get Brett Anderson from Oakland and David Wright from the New York Mets. I do not expect them to to do that but I still think Youk is a good place to start if you are looking to make changes. I don't see many trade scenarios with this team though. I think they'll check in on Gio Gonzalez but I don't think the Red Sox are a match. I think the Sox will make two free agent signings though
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As I mentioned in my Twins off-season write up I believe the Twins will try to make a run at the playoffs this year. Justin Morneau has been a very popular player and productive player. But the last two seasons have really hurt the Twins and Morneau's trade value. But he does still have value. And I think teams will line up to get him. Joe Mauer is Baby Jesus in Minnesota and can do no wrong...he goes nowhere. Justin Morneau is the quickest way to turn things around. And I suggest the Toronto Blue Jays as the likely target. Morneau is Canadian so there is even a chance he signs an extension there. And I don't think the Jays are too far off from contending. The Twins would love to get Brett Lowrie but he is WAY to valuable to Toronto so he won't get moved. So here is what I suggest...
The Blue Jays get Morneau and the Twins get
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The Minnesota Twins had an awful 2011. So they need to decide if they are going to make a push for the playoffs this year (which probably means signing veterans in hopes they have one or two good years left) or scrap it and start from scratch. While I would scrap it and start over I think they will go for it. A perennial playoff contender, the Twins fell flat on their face in 2011. Early season injuries to Joe Mauer (he never regained the form that saw him win a batting title and hit 28 HRs) and a mid season, season ending injury to Justin Morneau for the 2nd straight season made it quite a challenge for Ron Gardenhire. The Twins did bring in Ryan Doumit and signed Jamey Carroll. The Doumit signing I think could really help them but the Carroll signing is very peculiar. Carroll is a very good utility player on a contender. He is NOT an every day SS.
The offense will again be average at best. Only now the pitching, which had been the staple of the Twins for years, is also below average. Aside from Francisco Liriano there isn't much to like in the Twins rotation OR bullpen
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Every year, in every sport, there are a half dozen or so trades that teams should make for the benefit of every team involved. But the General Managers are hesitant or scared to pull the trigger. The following trades are trades I suggest should be seriously considered. Keep in mind that I know they will never happen but I think it's worth exploring. Also, some of the "minor pieces" in the trade are not specific names and could be swapped out for different players. So let's get started...
TRADE 1
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Comment by Anonymous
on Not A Good Day To Be A Mariners Fan...
My2Cents