Recovery or an Illusion
May 9th 2009 01:21
I don't want to be doom and gloom but I always shoot straight. Does anyone else get the feeling we are once again being treated as an audience in a magic show? Smoke and mirrors. A report is released today touting we "only" had 539,000 job losses when the so called experts wer expecting over 600,000. Of course the unemployment rate hit 8.9%, worst since 1983. Already words like recovery and the bottom has been reached are being thrown around. Even the term bull market is being used.
Now look I am just a working guy but using the common sense God gave me I am going to tell you what I think. This isn't the bottom, but if they suceed and pull people back into the market the real crash will be coming. Whatever wealth people have left will be destroyed and then the real trouble begins. What they aren't saying is a whole mass of mortgages that were purchased 3 years ago are going to mature to the higher rate. Time to pay the piper. People who are already upside down in their mortgages are going to be sending keys back.
Stacked on top of this a similar scenario will occur in the commercial real estate markets. I didn't hear that mentioned when these new stats were released. I rely on construction for my livleyhood and would like nothing more to believe that a recovery is near but I am also a realist. When we know our government is spending trillions of dollars then we also know from the most rudimentry understanding of economy 101, inflation is coming. Since we have never in history witnessed this kind of wreckless spending I can only assume we are about to witness unprecedented inflation.....Super Inflation.
Washington throws around these numbers, 100 million, 100 billion, 3 trillion. Most people can't comprehend the size of the numbers and just how much money it is. I found this example which is pretty startling.
A billion seconds ago it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington spends it.
Scary huh?
Now look I am just a working guy but using the common sense God gave me I am going to tell you what I think. This isn't the bottom, but if they suceed and pull people back into the market the real crash will be coming. Whatever wealth people have left will be destroyed and then the real trouble begins. What they aren't saying is a whole mass of mortgages that were purchased 3 years ago are going to mature to the higher rate. Time to pay the piper. People who are already upside down in their mortgages are going to be sending keys back.
Stacked on top of this a similar scenario will occur in the commercial real estate markets. I didn't hear that mentioned when these new stats were released. I rely on construction for my livleyhood and would like nothing more to believe that a recovery is near but I am also a realist. When we know our government is spending trillions of dollars then we also know from the most rudimentry understanding of economy 101, inflation is coming. Since we have never in history witnessed this kind of wreckless spending I can only assume we are about to witness unprecedented inflation.....Super Inflation.
Washington throws around these numbers, 100 million, 100 billion, 3 trillion. Most people can't comprehend the size of the numbers and just how much money it is. I found this example which is pretty startling.
A billion seconds ago it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.
A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate Washington spends it.
Scary huh?
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