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The claim of water vapor being 95% of the greenhouse effect is still seen every so often, and can be traced to one source:
West Virginia Fossils
If you see this claim anywhere, chances are very good that it ultimately came from this site.
One of the first things that you may notice is in Table 3, around the middle of the page, where they dont just claim that water is 95% of the greenhouse effect, they claim that its 95.000% of the greenhouse effect. Nothing in nature is that even, unless its being defined as such. This raises red flags right away.
But lets take a look at what they have to back it up. (under References, #4)
a. Being the only peer-reviewed reference, this seems to be the strongest, but just take a look at the title. The paper looks at the absorption of solar radiation. The greenhouse effect is about the absorption of longer-wavelength terrestrial radiation. The reference is irrelevant to the topic.
b. Patrick Michaels is a respected scientist, but he gives no reference or experimental findings to back this claim up. Its just his say-so.
c. Table D2 of the ref disagrees with the 95% claim, and the ref that the site wants us to see is actually the first paper on this list.
d. Personal communication. Again, Richard Lindzen is a respected scientist, but its just his say-so.
e. Dr. Patterson says that water vapor is 98% of all greenhouse gases by volume, but thats not the same thing as saying its 95% of the greenhouse effect.
f. Its a parody site, and only claims 90%.
g. Like Dr. Patterson, Lomborg says water vapor is 97% by volume, which is not the same thing as saying its 95% of the greenhouse effect.
h. This one actually has a paper to back it up, but the paper discusses radiative transfer in solids, not gases. It also looks only at the 5.6-7.2 micrometer range, while CO2 absorbs over a much greater portion of the infrared spectrum.
i.This one has three refs for the claim, two of which are a scientists say-so, while the third is a paper that concerns models. The third reference doesnt measure contributions directly, although it might ref something else.
So, out of nine references, one doesnt address the greenhouse effect at all, one disagrees with the claim and refs the first paper (and this was the sites only ref for a long time), two are not scientific studies but opinions by scientists, one is a parody site, two address only the relative volume of water molecules and not their contribution to the greenhouse effect, and two reference other papers which do not measure the GH contribution directly but might (or might not) reference something else. None of the refs aside from the first are peer-reviewed scientific papers.
So, whats on the other side of the argument? Just two references that say CO2 alone is responsible for at least 12% of the greenhouse effect, and come to that number by direct experimentation and observation.
Earths Annual Global Mean Energy Budget (PDF file)
Role of CO2 in Trapping Radiation
RealClimates two cents on the matter
WVFossils references may seem impressive, but quantity does not trump quality in this case.
A lot has been written about the cost of the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade plan currently making its way through Congress. The Heritage Foundation has the most often cited figure of $9.6 trillion dollars. Thats the total loss to United States GDP between now and 2035, as HF figures it.
Son of Waxman-Markey: More Politics makes for a Costlier Bill
Theres no real way to check this figure, as HF never shows its work. Its the equivalent of a scientific paper without a Materials and Methods section. But we can learn some things from other figures given. For one thing, the paper claims that the average familys yearly energy bill will increase by $1500. Lets figure about 100 million families in this country, and rough math brings us to $1500 X 100 million X 25 years = $3750 billion, or $3.75 trillion. Of course, families will pay higher prices not just for energy, but for most everything that depends on energy, so if you take the high estimates every step of the way, a total amount of $9.6 trillion in increased prices is probably not completely off.
The problem I have is, does that automatically translate to a similar loss in GDP? The Heritage Foundation seems to assume that the extra money goes down a black hole somewhere, never to be seen again, but is that really true?
Answer: No, of course not. Im not an economist, but it seems to me there are three ways that money can disappear from the GDP: it can go overseas, it can be used less efficiently, or it can be in the form of loans that are then defaulted on (like what happened in the recent housing crisis). Are any of those things happening here?
Lets take the average American family. They open up the electricity bill to find it has increased, to the tune of $1500/year (another high estimate, Im sure, BTW). They can do three things: They can pay the extra, they reduce energy usage, or they find alternative sources of energy. (In all likelihood, most families will do a mix of all three) If they reduce energy usage, depending on how they do it, theres little or no extra payment, so theres no difference in that familys financial well-being or the overall cash flow. A family that reduces its energy use might be less efficient (it takes longer to walk somewhere than drive, for example), but certainly not by 100%. If they find alternative sources of energy, like solar or wind, then they do spend money on that, but where does the money go? Most likely to an American company that sells the windmills or the solar cells. If they simply pay the bill, that obviously goes to an American power company.
OK, what about your average American power company? As Waxman-Markey is currently written, most carbon credits will be given away rather than auctioned off, so the company will have enough credits to cover say 70% of its current emissions without spending a cent. It now has two choices: it can buy carbon credits for the other 30% from someone else, or it can cut emissions (again, the majority of companies will probably do a mix of both of these). If it cuts emissions, it will either be able to do it on its own or with some technology that it will have to pay for. The tech might be bought from a foreign company, but its just as likely that it will be from an American one. If the company chooses to buy carbon credits, it can buy them from domestic or foreign sources. If I remember correctly, Waxman-Markey encourages companies to use domestic sources, but there will be some flow to foreign markets, no question. But, again, not nearly 100%.
The average American business is in the same boat as the average American family. The businesses that cant readily cut emissions and cant easily pass their costs on to the consumer will be the worst off.
So there will be some loss to GDP as money goes overseas and less flexible businesses fail, but I have a very hard time believing HFs claim. In addition, for every business that fails, theres another one that benefits, and isnt that what capitalism is all about? And the loss of money to foreign markets isnt due to some fundamental feature in cap-and-trade, but to where the carbon credits can be bought from. If it really bothers you, the solution is to alter the bill, not scrap it entirely.
And we have test cases to look at. As part of the Kyoto Protocol (which included cap-and-trade), a number of countries, including Germany, France, the UK, and Denmark, cut carbon emissions substantially, and their GDPs seem just fine. In fact, during the years that the Kyoto Protocol was in effect, the GDP of the UK grew faster than that of the US.
Increase in Greenhouse Gas Emissions since 1990
List of Countries by GDP Growth
There may a convincing argument that cap-and-trade really damages the economy, but the Heritage Foundations say-so by itself isnt it, no matter how many numbers they throw around.
Its a story of boy meets girl. Well, boy meets alien girl. When Kazuto starts dating Narue, he knew she was from outer space, but he never expected to deal with alien terrorists, bureaucrats who want to take Narue away from Earth, and sentient robots. Can love truly conquer all? Its a direct hit to your heart!
WoN is sweet almost to the point of sappiness. It features alien girls, spaceships, and interplanetary politics, but that stuff is just icing. The core, which the anime never strays very far from, is the relationship between these two young people. Kazu is a fairly typical high school boy. Hes not very sure of himself, especially around girls, and is an otaku for anime. Narue is a fairly typical high school girl, if a bit of a loner, except that shes an alien (half-alien actually; her mother was human). To an extent, this is a very familiar set-up, but one key difference is that Narue is very upfront about being an alien. She lists her address as the Earth branch of the Galaxy Federation, and her nickname is Alien Girl. Kazu doesnt really believe it, until he sees a dog that turns into a monster and is saved by Narues bat-swinging skills. Later on, Narue shows him the fleet of ships in orbit above Earth (and somehow avoiding detection by the thousands of Earth-based telescopes, but never mind), convincing Kazu. But, due to either his gentle nature or his feelings for Narue, that doesnt make any difference.
Kazuto and Narue
As is often the case, the supporting characters are as interesting, if not more so. Maruo is Kazus best friend and confidante (and the self-described Dr. Hunkenstein), and his friend and neighbor Yagi is initially the exact opposite for Narue, a UFO-enthusiast who does not believe that Narue is an alien and is constantly trying to prove it. This being WofN, they eventually become friends, thanks in part to Kanaka, Narues full alien sister whos a bit of a brat, especially at first, but has a good heart.
Storywise, theres not much of an over-riding plot aside from the relationship. The dog-monster belongs to a group violently opposed to the Galaxy Federations presence on Earth, for reasons that remain pretty much unexplained, and the officials of the Galaxy Federation make several attempts to convince Narue and her father to leave, but always without success. These threats are never very threatening, and every episode ends on a fell-good moment.
Kanaka, Unplugged.
And even though its a short series (12 episodes), it hits all the anime must-sees. Theres the beach episode, the hot spring episode, the cosplay episode, and the traditional festival finale.
World of Narue is the cotton candy of anime, but thats sometimes just what the doctor ordered. If youve just watched Black Lagoon or Perfect Blue, and you feel like something that is the exact opposite, this is it.
Great moments: When Narue is in Kazus room and discovers his porn collection (Naked identical triplets?), Kanakas face when she first meets Narue, and Narue and Kazutos first kiss.
Geeking out: The movie that the couple see on their first date is a sci-fi blockbuster, and has a character referred to as the Governor, who sounds suspiciously like Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Extras: Director and actor commentary, interviews with the voice actors, storyboards, promos, gallery, manga-to-anime comparison, and clean opening and closing.
Summary: Sweet anime about a sweet couple, light and fluffy. Grade: A minus
Age Rating: 13 and up. Some fan service; the creators like their panty shots, and there a couple of locker room scenes, in addition to the swimsuit and hot springs episodes.
Blogger's Note: I'm going to be away (in Europe!) for two weeks, but I will be back with reviews of Patlabor, Perfect Blue, and Absolute Boyfriend. Until then, happy viewing!
Kazuto and Maruo
Yagi
The Adriatic, 1929, a world of air pirates, mercenaries, and high-flying adventure. Porco, an ace pilot cursed with the face of a pig, is of this world, but when he defeats the pirates once too often, they bring in American pilot Donald Curtis to clip his wings. Curtis becomes a rival in love as well as in the air, and only with the help of young mechanic Fio can Porco defeat him, and just maybe end his curse.
[ Click here to read more ]
Manga fans, I swear by my special edition Black Lagoon dog tag necklace, I kid you not. Many (and by many, I mean several hundred) of your favorite mangas are on-line, available for reading, free of charge, no registration required. (The Really Long Link isn't working for some reason, so you'll have to cut and paste)
http://www.onemanga.com
[ Click here to read more ]
A thousand years after the Seven Days of Fire that destroyed civilization, humans survive in the Valley of the Wind, protected from the ecological devastation. But when two other nations uncover an ancient weapon, their conflict pulls the Valley dwellers in, and threatens to wipe out human existence forever. Only the princess Nausicaa can find a way out.
[ Click here to read more ]
When Inuyasha finds a half-demon girl on the run, hes drawn back to an island where demons and humans live in harmony. Now its threatened by a group of powerful demons, and only Inuyasha and his friends can stand against them.
[ Click here to read more ]
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Comments (2)
Comment by NoaIzumi
on Warning: This Joke is Not Politically Correct
Fine Politics
Anime Bottle
But still funny as hell. Keep 'em coming!