NFL Week 1
September 8th 2011 12:00
A note about my grading system. I tend to use letter grades, A through (god fordbid) F. Generally speaking, an A-rated game has to have some compelling national interest. It could be a massive divisional clash. It could be a "Super Bowl" preview game late in the season. It could have some other compelling reason to watch it. But an A game grabs your attention as a football fan; I'm talking about a fan of the game and not just one specific team. A "B" grade should be a good, competitive game. It has reasons to watch, like two good teams or a really juicy storyline. But it's simply an undercard, and there's no getting around it. Who would prefer to watch two 7-3 maybe-in/maybe-out playoff teams as opposed to an 10-0 vs 9-1 battle of the titans? My point exactly. Third, a "C" game tends to hold interest only to the team's fans. A team can go from having an A game one week to a C game the next. Why? An opponent lacking any interest can do it, generally. A "D" game is of interest only to the tortured individuals calling themselves "fans" of whatever so-called football product is being put on the field by the two would-be teams. I've never labeled a game as an F.
That being said...
C grade games
Buffalo at Kansas City. Neither team performed particularly well in the pre-season. KC lost young, talented TE Moeaki for the year in the last preseason game, depriving Cassel of a solid check-down guy. Buffalo seems to have an approach to the season of not having an approach to the season. I guess that HC Chad Gailey is okay as a coach, though his record isn't any indication. Gailey has never struck me as a very good HC, yet this is his second stint? There's just nothing here. I think KC is overrated in a (yet again) soft AFC West. The Bills are not unwatchable bad, but they aren't compelling, either. I'll pick...KC, just because they're at home.
Tennessee at Jacksonville. Despite a divisional game, this game lacks interest first (and maybe primarily) because of Jacksonville. However, tonight's news that the Jags cut David Garrard may make it slightly more compelling to watch...if you like to see train wrecks. This game should feature about 75% running plays, given the statues of Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. I think a 50s era head coach would be pleased with this game. Any modern day coach watching the "passing attack" this game will feature would have to be excused so that he could go throw up. Jags at home.
Cincinnati at Cleveland. OK, I almost gave this a D grade. The only reason I didn't is Colt McCoy. As an interested observer of Cleveland I think that they are finally making some sensible moves and heading into the right direction. A guy like McCoy, who has intangibles off the charts, can work wonders in a smartly-designed offense tailored to his abilities. If that offense opens up a little and provides some weaponry, in time it will be dangerous because I think McCoy will be dangerous. This kid wins, and seeing him twice last year has convinced me of that. As for Cincy? It's the same old situation, only worse than ever. Carson Palmer's stance tells you all that you need to know about this sad-sack bunch. Cleveland wins.
Minnesota at San Diego. And the Vikings get their first taste of what I think will be a long, painful year. An unsettled offensive line in front of a rapidly declining Donovan McNabb means that workhorse back Adrian Peterson will get tons of work. Not a good mixture for running backs. The Vikings defense is no-name and probably won't match up well against a high-powered passing attack that the Chargers feature. Philip Rivers should have a pretty good day, I think. That said, the Chargers like to start slowly (or have in recent seasons). Having a quick start would do the Chargers well. The Bolts win.
Carolina at Arizona. One team has a league-worst running game, with a "featured" back who is being described here and there with the word "draft bust" included. The other has a new head coach and is starting the overall #1 draft choice at QB. Either way, this could be a virtually unwatchable game between two teams who are probably already irrelevant. A pick? How about the visiting Panthers.
Seattle at San Francisco. Yawn. Just don't show up wearing Seahawk blue - things in the Bay Area have been less-than-pleasant recently. The Hawks are starting over at QB with Tavaris Jackson. Really? How to you expect that to work? And the Niners are sticking with Alex Smith? Again? You've not seen enough yet? Gah. Root for the refs. Expect the Niners with Frank Gore to "earn" a win. Someone has to.
Oakland at Denver. Now ordinarily, these two teams would rate slightly higher than a C grade. And there's some reason for positive expectations in Oakland this year. Denver continues to recover from the Josh McDaniels clusterf**k. There is no other way to describe that reign of terror. And I'm not even a Broncos fan. I think that Oakland may open some eyes this year, and I think they do so starting this night. Oakland pulls out the win.
B games.
Atlanta at Chicago. Two 2010 playoff teams facing each other always makes for compelling watching. But the Bears start to this year has not been all that watchable. The Falcons need to take that next step. Playing a tough team on the road and earning a win would certainly do the Falcons well. I think they'll do it, too, because I'm not all that convinced that Chicago has, in fact, an offense. Certainly they have a "gunslinger" at QB, but no one would ever mistake Cutler for Favre. Maybe Jeff George. But not Favre. Falcons win. I think this might end up being a long season in Chicago...
Indianapolis at Houston. A divisional game. Check. One team with a Super Bowl pedigree. Check. Another team with arguably the game's most dangerous offense. Check. Peyton Manning. Uh... So Manning looks to be out, and after watching a few series of the Colts playing "offense" in the pre-season, all I can say is that if the Texans, Titans and Jaguars coaches expect to be coaching in 2012, they might all want to beat Indy before Peyton returns. 'Cuz there might not be this glorious a chance to win the South in a few years. That said, Houston's offense has been built to get into a shoot-out with Indy and win, and finally their defense gets an upgrade worthy of discussion. The Colts looked in complete disarray. No reason to expect otherwise with Kerry Collins at the helm. Houston wins convincingly.
Philadelphia at St. Louis. The Eagles and their "dream team" against a team that surprised everyone in 2010. I like this game. The Rams front 7 gave everyone fits last year, and Sam Bradford's style looked awfully good down the stretch. Compare that to the high-octane Eagles who can (and will) score from anywhere on the field. And your QB comparisons? Vick and Bradford. There's some differences in that comparison, eh? Thing is, in the dome and on the road, I think Philly will have some difficulty. I also think that Philly is not quite as good as their hype. I think they're very, very good and have a great shot to win the NFC East. But I think they need to get their asses handed to them early in the season to make them see the reality that is the NFL regular season. I think the Rams do that.
Detroit at Tampa Bay. A year ago this would have rated the only D grade. This year it gets a B with a bullet. Young teams are impossible to predict. One week they'll come out looking Super Bowl ready. The next week they'll shoot off their entire foot with a shotgun. Repeatedly. Makes it heart-wrenching on the locals - first you have to figure out which team is showing up. In a QB-driven league like the NFL, you have your established stars and your young guns looking to make an impact. This game features two of the more prominent ones with Stafford and Freeman. I think Josh will spend more than a bit of time running for his life from that front four of Detroit, but I also think the Bucs are slightly more capable at this point. And they're at home. The Bucs.
New York Giants at Washington. Normally, an NFC East clash always grades highly. Trouble is, these two are probably the dregs of the NFC East this year, and I find ranking them as a B a stretch. So call it a B- game. I just...it's...'meh.' Just don't care. Eli? 'Meh' Washington's QB "derby?" 'meh' I don't care. Oh, Giants I guess. Just because Eli's better than whatever schmuck Shanahan thinks will win him some games. Rex Grossman? Really? You've not see the game tapes? Meh...
New England at Miami. Divisional game. The Pats look like they could be dominant again this year - at least great. The Dolphins might have the defense that stakes a claim to NFL "best" this year. Strength on strength, and that makes for a compelling game. Tom Brady, at his best, destroys teams. The Dolphins have to find a way to pressure Brady, and using only four men, as that seems to be the only antidote to Brady's poisons. This ought to be a fun game, too, as there's some notable passion between these two teams. I don't see the Dolphins winning this one. I just don't.
A grades
New Orleans at Green Bay. Calling this an NFC Championship Game preview in the season's first week is a hell of a stretch. But not outside the realm of possibility, either. The last two Super Bowl winners facing off in the season opener means that a great football game ought to be on display. It also means that we can watch two precision offenses go to work, and two opportunistic defenses do their best. There's no downside to this game. It's at Lambeau. It features two phenomenal offensive minds coaching fantastic offenses. It has great players, great stories and nothing that leaves a bad taste. It's nationally televised - that helps! The Pack will win this game.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore. When these two AFC North titans collide, the entire league watches. Part of it is the human need to watch when two hated foes go out and try to physically destroy the other. Often times, long stretches of these games seem to boil down to one team trying to beat the other down; scoring is secondary to winning the physical battle. That said, since 2000, these are two of the four AFC teams earning over 100 wins. Their decade-long-plus legacy of winning suggests that they'll be good again this year, too. There's nothing we've seen from either team that dissuades me from keeping that opinion. It's only too bad that such a game is the season opener for both squads. While I don't think it will detract from the usual game, I do think that it won't have the same feeling being a season opener. No one knows what to expect. That makes it tough. And I hate writing this, as a Steeler fan, but Joe Flacco won't go 0-for his career against Ben Roethlisberger. He has to get that first win. I will pick Baltimore. Now I will go throw up. Excuse me...
Dallas at New York Jets. Why an A grade? Well, Rob Ryan opening his mouth and making suggestive foot comments aimed towards brother Rex opened it. But the more I think about this game, the more I see the interest. The Cowboys have been quiet. That's both out of character and I think very dangerous. When they're loud and obnoxious you tend to believe the hype, and then the Cowboys go and implode. But this year with things being so quiet (and Philly making all the noise) you have to wonder what's under wraps in Big D. That offense could be something, with home run hitters in Felix Jones and Dez Bryant. Romo's something of a regular season whiz, but you have to be good to win games and he's capable. Defensively, I'm not all that sure about them but having Ware always helps. Then, the Jets. I think that as Mark Sanchez goes, they go. Good WRs or not. I also don't know if their front 7 is as good as hyped. But they're very good. But I think they are in need of a serious nose tweak. And I think Dallas provides it. The Cowboys win.
That being said...
C grade games
Buffalo at Kansas City. Neither team performed particularly well in the pre-season. KC lost young, talented TE Moeaki for the year in the last preseason game, depriving Cassel of a solid check-down guy. Buffalo seems to have an approach to the season of not having an approach to the season. I guess that HC Chad Gailey is okay as a coach, though his record isn't any indication. Gailey has never struck me as a very good HC, yet this is his second stint? There's just nothing here. I think KC is overrated in a (yet again) soft AFC West. The Bills are not unwatchable bad, but they aren't compelling, either. I'll pick...KC, just because they're at home.
Tennessee at Jacksonville. Despite a divisional game, this game lacks interest first (and maybe primarily) because of Jacksonville. However, tonight's news that the Jags cut David Garrard may make it slightly more compelling to watch...if you like to see train wrecks. This game should feature about 75% running plays, given the statues of Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. I think a 50s era head coach would be pleased with this game. Any modern day coach watching the "passing attack" this game will feature would have to be excused so that he could go throw up. Jags at home.
Cincinnati at Cleveland. OK, I almost gave this a D grade. The only reason I didn't is Colt McCoy. As an interested observer of Cleveland I think that they are finally making some sensible moves and heading into the right direction. A guy like McCoy, who has intangibles off the charts, can work wonders in a smartly-designed offense tailored to his abilities. If that offense opens up a little and provides some weaponry, in time it will be dangerous because I think McCoy will be dangerous. This kid wins, and seeing him twice last year has convinced me of that. As for Cincy? It's the same old situation, only worse than ever. Carson Palmer's stance tells you all that you need to know about this sad-sack bunch. Cleveland wins.
Minnesota at San Diego. And the Vikings get their first taste of what I think will be a long, painful year. An unsettled offensive line in front of a rapidly declining Donovan McNabb means that workhorse back Adrian Peterson will get tons of work. Not a good mixture for running backs. The Vikings defense is no-name and probably won't match up well against a high-powered passing attack that the Chargers feature. Philip Rivers should have a pretty good day, I think. That said, the Chargers like to start slowly (or have in recent seasons). Having a quick start would do the Chargers well. The Bolts win.
Carolina at Arizona. One team has a league-worst running game, with a "featured" back who is being described here and there with the word "draft bust" included. The other has a new head coach and is starting the overall #1 draft choice at QB. Either way, this could be a virtually unwatchable game between two teams who are probably already irrelevant. A pick? How about the visiting Panthers.
Seattle at San Francisco. Yawn. Just don't show up wearing Seahawk blue - things in the Bay Area have been less-than-pleasant recently. The Hawks are starting over at QB with Tavaris Jackson. Really? How to you expect that to work? And the Niners are sticking with Alex Smith? Again? You've not seen enough yet? Gah. Root for the refs. Expect the Niners with Frank Gore to "earn" a win. Someone has to.
Oakland at Denver. Now ordinarily, these two teams would rate slightly higher than a C grade. And there's some reason for positive expectations in Oakland this year. Denver continues to recover from the Josh McDaniels clusterf**k. There is no other way to describe that reign of terror. And I'm not even a Broncos fan. I think that Oakland may open some eyes this year, and I think they do so starting this night. Oakland pulls out the win.
B games.
Atlanta at Chicago. Two 2010 playoff teams facing each other always makes for compelling watching. But the Bears start to this year has not been all that watchable. The Falcons need to take that next step. Playing a tough team on the road and earning a win would certainly do the Falcons well. I think they'll do it, too, because I'm not all that convinced that Chicago has, in fact, an offense. Certainly they have a "gunslinger" at QB, but no one would ever mistake Cutler for Favre. Maybe Jeff George. But not Favre. Falcons win. I think this might end up being a long season in Chicago...
Indianapolis at Houston. A divisional game. Check. One team with a Super Bowl pedigree. Check. Another team with arguably the game's most dangerous offense. Check. Peyton Manning. Uh... So Manning looks to be out, and after watching a few series of the Colts playing "offense" in the pre-season, all I can say is that if the Texans, Titans and Jaguars coaches expect to be coaching in 2012, they might all want to beat Indy before Peyton returns. 'Cuz there might not be this glorious a chance to win the South in a few years. That said, Houston's offense has been built to get into a shoot-out with Indy and win, and finally their defense gets an upgrade worthy of discussion. The Colts looked in complete disarray. No reason to expect otherwise with Kerry Collins at the helm. Houston wins convincingly.
Philadelphia at St. Louis. The Eagles and their "dream team" against a team that surprised everyone in 2010. I like this game. The Rams front 7 gave everyone fits last year, and Sam Bradford's style looked awfully good down the stretch. Compare that to the high-octane Eagles who can (and will) score from anywhere on the field. And your QB comparisons? Vick and Bradford. There's some differences in that comparison, eh? Thing is, in the dome and on the road, I think Philly will have some difficulty. I also think that Philly is not quite as good as their hype. I think they're very, very good and have a great shot to win the NFC East. But I think they need to get their asses handed to them early in the season to make them see the reality that is the NFL regular season. I think the Rams do that.
Detroit at Tampa Bay. A year ago this would have rated the only D grade. This year it gets a B with a bullet. Young teams are impossible to predict. One week they'll come out looking Super Bowl ready. The next week they'll shoot off their entire foot with a shotgun. Repeatedly. Makes it heart-wrenching on the locals - first you have to figure out which team is showing up. In a QB-driven league like the NFL, you have your established stars and your young guns looking to make an impact. This game features two of the more prominent ones with Stafford and Freeman. I think Josh will spend more than a bit of time running for his life from that front four of Detroit, but I also think the Bucs are slightly more capable at this point. And they're at home. The Bucs.
New York Giants at Washington. Normally, an NFC East clash always grades highly. Trouble is, these two are probably the dregs of the NFC East this year, and I find ranking them as a B a stretch. So call it a B- game. I just...it's...'meh.' Just don't care. Eli? 'Meh' Washington's QB "derby?" 'meh' I don't care. Oh, Giants I guess. Just because Eli's better than whatever schmuck Shanahan thinks will win him some games. Rex Grossman? Really? You've not see the game tapes? Meh...
New England at Miami. Divisional game. The Pats look like they could be dominant again this year - at least great. The Dolphins might have the defense that stakes a claim to NFL "best" this year. Strength on strength, and that makes for a compelling game. Tom Brady, at his best, destroys teams. The Dolphins have to find a way to pressure Brady, and using only four men, as that seems to be the only antidote to Brady's poisons. This ought to be a fun game, too, as there's some notable passion between these two teams. I don't see the Dolphins winning this one. I just don't.
A grades
New Orleans at Green Bay. Calling this an NFC Championship Game preview in the season's first week is a hell of a stretch. But not outside the realm of possibility, either. The last two Super Bowl winners facing off in the season opener means that a great football game ought to be on display. It also means that we can watch two precision offenses go to work, and two opportunistic defenses do their best. There's no downside to this game. It's at Lambeau. It features two phenomenal offensive minds coaching fantastic offenses. It has great players, great stories and nothing that leaves a bad taste. It's nationally televised - that helps! The Pack will win this game.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore. When these two AFC North titans collide, the entire league watches. Part of it is the human need to watch when two hated foes go out and try to physically destroy the other. Often times, long stretches of these games seem to boil down to one team trying to beat the other down; scoring is secondary to winning the physical battle. That said, since 2000, these are two of the four AFC teams earning over 100 wins. Their decade-long-plus legacy of winning suggests that they'll be good again this year, too. There's nothing we've seen from either team that dissuades me from keeping that opinion. It's only too bad that such a game is the season opener for both squads. While I don't think it will detract from the usual game, I do think that it won't have the same feeling being a season opener. No one knows what to expect. That makes it tough. And I hate writing this, as a Steeler fan, but Joe Flacco won't go 0-for his career against Ben Roethlisberger. He has to get that first win. I will pick Baltimore. Now I will go throw up. Excuse me...
Dallas at New York Jets. Why an A grade? Well, Rob Ryan opening his mouth and making suggestive foot comments aimed towards brother Rex opened it. But the more I think about this game, the more I see the interest. The Cowboys have been quiet. That's both out of character and I think very dangerous. When they're loud and obnoxious you tend to believe the hype, and then the Cowboys go and implode. But this year with things being so quiet (and Philly making all the noise) you have to wonder what's under wraps in Big D. That offense could be something, with home run hitters in Felix Jones and Dez Bryant. Romo's something of a regular season whiz, but you have to be good to win games and he's capable. Defensively, I'm not all that sure about them but having Ware always helps. Then, the Jets. I think that as Mark Sanchez goes, they go. Good WRs or not. I also don't know if their front 7 is as good as hyped. But they're very good. But I think they are in need of a serious nose tweak. And I think Dallas provides it. The Cowboys win.
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