NBA Finals Prediction
June 5th 2009 21:59
Howard and Bryant battle for rebound
This was supposed to be the finals that featured two of the biggest stars in the NBA today. The dream match-up many people including mainly David Stern and Nike was that of Kobe vs. Lebron. Nike even had puppet commercials banking on the fact that the two would square off in the finals. There is often a debate about who is the best player in the game Kobe or Lebron and this would’ve been the chance to settle that debate. There is one problem though, basketball is a team sport. The NBA was advertising and marketing for not two teams in the finals but two individuals.
Dwight Howard and the Magic didn’t let the dream match-up take place. While Lebron was clearly the best player in the series, but Howard had the better team. I believe Howard has the better team in this series as well, which is going against just about every analyst in the sport. Most “experts” are picking the Lakers in 6 or 7 games.
I’m picking the Magic in 6 games. There are many reasons behind my thinking that the Lakers will once again falter in this year’s finals. The number of games it took both teams to get to the finals differs by one but the paths these teams have taken to the finals have been quite different.
The Lakers throughout the playoffs looked like a jekyl and hyde team. Showing up one night to dominate its opponent, and then looking like a team with zero desire to make it out of the round they were in. The Nuggets bullied the Lakers with physical play inside and the Lakers showed the same vulnerabilities they did in the finals last year. Andrew Bynum is currently a shell of himself since his knee injury. Outside of Kobe and Gasol the Lakers don’t know what contribution they’ll get from their supporting cast. Ariza and Odom have been inconsistent throughout the playoffs. As good as Kobe has been this year, its starting to look like his age is showing.
The Magic on the other hand have seemed to only get stronger as the post season has gone on. They fell behind the Sixers then beat them in their house without their dominate force inside. They fell behind the defending champion Celtics. They forced a game 7 in Boston and came out with the W. They faced the Cavaliers who hadn’t lost a game in the first two rounds. The Cavs weren’t tested in one game; they won every game by double digits. The Magic were given no chance a couple of games let alone the series. They stunned everyone by taking game one of the series in Cleveland. Their inside-outside game proved to be too much for Lebron and his “complimentary” players. The Magic could have swept the series if it wasn’t for a miracle heave by Lebron in game 2. Even though the Cavs took two games the Magic thoroughly dominated the series start to finish.
Howard will create all sorts of problems for the Lakers as he did in the regular season. If the Lakers double team they lose and if they don’t they lose as well. If they double team Howard will kick the ball out to one of the many capable 3-point shooters spotting up behind the arc. If they don’t double team they’ll find that Howard will wreak havoc down low with whoever it is they want to put on him. The thing Howard has to concentrate on more than ever is his free throw shooting. Phil Jackson will most likely use pine riders D.J. Mbenga and Josh Powell as designated foul machines.
The Magic could be trouble if Howard decides to become a foul machine. It was evident that the Magic in the conference finals were a different team with Howard sitting on the bench with foul trouble. The difference was mainly seen on the defensive end. The Cavs took the ball straight to the rim without being met by any blocking presence with Howard on the bench. The Magic also suffered on the boards particularly with Howard’s ability to convert offensive boards into put back dunks.
The Lakers are also going to have to worry about the likes of Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus, and Rafer Alston who have all proven they can go off at a moments notice. The return of Jameer Nelson will only add to the depth of the Magic bench. The Magic by no means are going to be able to stop Kobe but they have many options to throw at him. I expect Courtney Lee and Pietrus to get most of the time on Kobe with Turkoglu making his appearance as well.
Once again I think the Magic take the series and the championship in six games. I believe they have too much fire power for a Lakers team that plays when they want to.
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