NBA Draft Reflections/Analysis/Thoughts/Predictions
June 27th 2009 06:08
I can't wait to talk about Thursday's NBA Draft. I love the draft because it's not an isolated event on the NBA calendar which allows teams to add a good prospect from college and see how he fits into their team. The draft is the day that teams use as a springboard to do a variety of things: initiate a franchise makeover, make significant moves to improve quickly, set up for the future by stockpiling picks, or carefully crafted combinations of any of these. We've seen doormat morph into championship contender overnight with the Boston Celtics in 2007, and we've seen teams quietly murder their own franchises with continual poor drafting, like the LA Clippers for the last 15 years. Any way you slice it, the draft makes for great entertainment as teams engage in the most activity during this time than at any other point in the season.
Helpful and potentially time-saving note: If you don't want to read about Ricky Rubio, stop reading now. It's alright.
Out of many interesting plotlines, developments, trades, and surprises of the 2009 Draft, the guy above (18 year old Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio, not David Stern) is the one I'm most interested in. Heralded as the next Pete Maravich, a ludicrous comparison by all accounts, Rubio generated more buzz than anyone coming into the draft with his prodigious speed, supernatural court awareness, and masterful vision and passing. The highlights, though sparse, clearly show Rubio is on a different level of talent from Europe's top players. I guess that's what can happen when you turn pro at age 14.
Before I get humming, I should provide the novice sports enthusiast with a draft recap.
The big story for me is not that Rubio was drafted: it was a foregone conclusion he would be taken somewhere in the top handful of players. The surprise is that two teams, in true Atlanta Hawks passing on Chris Paul fashion, needing a point guard and fun talent to watch, passed on Rubio. Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings, I'm looking at you. At #3, OKC had the chance to take Rubio and let him run with Kevin Durant, Russ Westbrook, and Jeff Green. I can't really fault them for the James Harden pick because he fills a need and is a good character guy, but I'm so disappointed that the most exciting player in this draft didn't get put on the potentially most exciting team to watch for next year when the possibility was there. I mean, is there anything more fun to watch than Rubio's once-in-a-generation passing talent creating flashy attempts for Durant and Westbrook? I'm not sure there is. Sacramento's pick is indefensible. Their guy, Tyreke Evans, stinks. He went to college for one year, has a long way to go in maturity, can't shoot, and dominates the ball. These are not the things you want to characterize your new franchise point guard on a crappy team. DID THEY NOT KNOW RICKY RUBIO WAS AVAILABLE??? There are several thought provoking questions you could ask the Sacramento brass, but the simplest and most direct is: Do you really think that Tyreke Evans is better than Ricky Rubio for the next 10 years? I'm not sure they would answer you honestly. All I know is that in 2014, OKC and SAC will be throwing china at the wall for passing on Rubio in 2009 like Atlanta is now for passing on Chris Paul 4 years ago.
The team that DID get Rubio at #5 was the Minnesota Timberwolves, who feel like a homeless man finding a bag carrying $10 million in unmarked bills in a dumpster. This is that big of a shock to them and to me, but apparently not to a number of brainless NBA GMs. After lucking into Rubio, Minnesota must have felt great having traded up earlier to own the #6 pick. So with their second pick in a row and one of their gaping holes filled, Minnesota decided to make sure that point guard hole was extra filled by drafting another one, Syracuse's Jonny Flynn. What??????? We later learned that Minnesota wants to play Rubio and Flynn (neither of which can shoot) at the same time, with Flynn--at 5' 11"-- running the wing. Mind boggling. To top it off later, Minnesota drafted a THIRD point at #18 in Ty Lawson. So I guess they're going to trot 3 point guards out there. Awesome. To be fair, Minnesota traded Lawson to Denver later in the night. Look for more post-action rumors about Flynn or Rubio being traded because this just doesn't make sense. Minnesota is up to something...I just don't know what it is yet.
I will now write the rest of this post in lists because I feel the urge to categorize, and because you're getting tired of reading
Guys who suck and probably got drafted too high
1. Hasheem Thabeet at #2-soft, raw, more weaknesses than strengths..... the #2 pick?
2. Tyreke Evans at #4-who is he? what's he done that is good?
3. Tyler Hansbrough at #13-fools gold, too small and unathletic to play in the post
4. Austin Daye at #15-should be a top 10 pick in the 2010 Draft. Oh, he got drafted in 2009?
Guys who will be valuable contributors and will make everyone who passed feel shame
1. Eric Maynor at #20- 4 year true point guard in college, mature, polished, no hype
2. DeJuan Blair at #37- worries about having no ACLs scared everyone off. Top 12 talent
3. Derrick Brown at #40- underrated out of Xavier, versatile and very athletic
4. Chase Budinger at #44- for no other reason than being drafted so late. Super athletic; formerly regarded as a lottery pick before struggling at end of college career
Teams who should feel proud of their draft results
1. San Antonio Spurs: Blair falling to them is very fortunate; Jack McClinton late in the 2nd round is underrated and a great value pick who might contribute right away. Another masterful job picking deep in the 2nd round by the Spurs.
2. Minnesota: landing Rubio at 5, stockpiling future picks by trading Lawson are enough to vault them here.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Lucking into top 7 talent Jrue Holiday at #17 was great for Philly, who get a potential franchise point guard mid first round.
4. Portland Trailblazers: with 4 picks, Portland solidified its interior with Dante Cunningham and bruiser Jon Brockman, who was traded for a serviceable Jeff Pendergraph, both proven and dependable players. Patrick Mills could be the steal of this draft at 55. He would have been a top 10 pick if he came out in 2010.
5. Chicago Bulls: not because of who they drafted at what spot, but because they knew their holes and tried to fill them. James Johnson and Taj Gibson could both significantly bolster a frontline that has been in limbo for years and was the glaring weakness of a surging team at the end of 2009.
6. Orlando Magic: no picks in the draft, but trading for Vince Carter at 30 cents on the dollar on the eve of the draft was a bigger help than any player from this draft can offer.
Teams who did not draft well
1. Memphis Grizzlies: should have taken someone better than Thabeet. You don't want your #2 overall pick to be a 5 year project who offers zero guarantees of production.
2. Sacramento Kings: for drafting Evans, passing on Rubio, and having absolutely no direction as a franchise.
3. Detroit Pistons: with several good guards still available, including Jrue Holiday, they rolled the dice on Daye, who is several years away from being an NBA body and is virtually a taller Tayshaun Prince. With a couple of potentially explosive players left in the 2nd round, they took a college role player who never wowed anyone in DaJuan Summers.
Overall, there were no REALLY great or REALLY poor picks in this draft, but common sense seems to be absent from NBA front offices. Just because Hasheem Thabeet is considered one of the best players in this year's class does not mean he will be any good for your team, especially so high in the draft. Same goes for Ty Evans. These might be completely wasted picks in 3 years if they don't pan out well. The disparity in talent between pick 1 and pick 60 might be the smallest its been in any draft this decade. Blake Griffin is clearly the cream of the crop this year, but will not be mistaken for a franchise player anytime soon.
Things to keep an eye on as free agency opens July 1
1. Potential blockbuster trades: Suns-Warriors talk of Amare Stoudemire, Ricky Rubio rumored trade to the Knicks
2. Notable Free Agents: Jason Kidd, Lamar Odom, Chris Andersen, Allen Iverson, Trevor Ariza, Rasheed Wallace, Ron Artest, Charlie Villanueva, David Lee, Hedo Turkoglu, Paul Millsap, and Carlos Boozer
Stay tuned as the NBA summer heats up, there will certainly be more positioning as teams desperately look to cut costs for the Summer of 2010 and the economy.
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