Mike Landfair

Portland, Oregon, UNITED STATES


Joined June 6th 2008

Number of Posts:
106

Number of Comments:
18

Karma:
8



Other Blogs
Mover Mike http://movermike.powerblogs.com

Landfair Furniture (Blog) http://landfairfurniture.blogspot.com

The Landfair Retail Focus http://www.homeaccentstoday.com/blog/1960000396.html

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Recent Posts

Sobering Thoughts From Bank Analyst

November 21st 2008 19:44
Apropos, of the last post about Citigroup, JJ Hornblass posts about Credit Losses Seen Doubling in 2009. Christopher Whalen, director of sales and marketing at Institutional Risk Analytics offers a very sobering outlook for credit losses in the financial arena going forward,

Here are a couple highlights of his assessment:

“we are about halfway through” the credit loss cycle

subprime credit losses won’t peak until next year.

Credit losses will go to 4% from 2%

We have a $32.5 Trillion problem with credit default swaps

Whalen sees AIG still going into bankruptcy (U.S. taxpayers will have wasted at least $150 Billion)

Finally, ALL current capital at banks will need to be replaced. All!

No Obama or any other politician has a fix. Only the market and time will do the job.


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Citigroup, Can They Hold It Together?

November 21st 2008 19:02
Election day, 2008, Citigroup (C) traded at $14.81. Then it started to slide and currently it is trading at $3.81. (See chart) If C closes at this price, it will be down some 60% in one week! The WSJ reports that top executives are considering the dale of thebank.

The debate within the company is at a "preliminary stage," and officials said the company has "ample capital, funding and strategic direction," the daily said.

Mish Shedlock disagrees.

Looking ahead, foreclosures, credit card defaults, and bankruptcies are going to soar along with a soaring unemployment rate. Banks in general, and citigroup specifically, are woefully undercapitalized and unprepared for what is about to happen. One look at a chart of Citigroup should be proof enough.

The market seems to believe Citigroup is insolvent and so do I.

Add Citigroup (C) to your list of troubled companies along with JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS).
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Tracking Gold On eBay

November 20th 2008 03:42
On October 22nd I posted The Pennant Race To The Bottom and said:

His focus on pennants got me looking at the DJIA chart with new eyes (see chart). If you connect the two most recent highs (9794.37 and 9284.55) and the two most recent lows 7882.51 and 8197.67), you have a pennant in the DJIA and the DJTA also shows a similar formation. A braking of support in the DJIA pennant gives a downside target of 6194!

We did break down out of the pennant and then went up and back into it. Today, however following the DJTA, the DJIA broke to a new low. It like the pennant was converted to a channel, but the target still remains the same; down another 1,688 points or a target of 6.277!

There's no guarantee or any real way to know for sure, but Richard Russell notes the 50% principle level is 7470 and the 2002 low is 7286. Certainly levels to keep an eye on.

I might note that yields, beneficiaries of a flight to safety, hit 0.11% for 90 day Treasury paper. 1.09% for 2-year and 3.38% on 10-year paper. And the FED is considering lowering interest rates further.

Talk abounds that China will increase its Gold reserves from 600 tons to 4,000 tons. The Chinese love Gold. This chart courtesy of Le Metropole Cafe illustrates the growing demand in China:

Gold Demand in China


You might be interested to learn that 24-Hour Gold has started keeping track of the market for physical supplies of Gold based on supply and demand for gold coins and silver coins on eBay. You can find it here: Gold on eBay, U.S. and Worldwide and Silver on Ebay, US and Worldwide
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Woolworths

November 19th 2008 20:40
Woolworths


When I was a kid there was Sears, JC Penny, Woolworths, Montgomery Ward, and K Mart. Sears and JC Penny were the biggest for a long time. Now you know that Walmart is the big cheese today and Woolworth's and Montgomery Ward are gone


[ Click here to read more ]
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Got Gold?

November 15th 2008 17:57
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It's Illogical!

November 12th 2008 21:01


Mover Mike has two articles that may be of interest to readers of The Market Bugle


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AIG: The Bottomless PIt

November 11th 2008 18:38
The NY Times today reveals that American International Group (AIG), who we've bailed out to the tune of $144 Billion, needs additional money. You and I have agreed to give then another $150 Billion. (I don't recall getting a call seeking my permission. Perhaps I was out that day.) The NYT writes:

About $30 billion of the government money will be used to buy complex debt securities that were insured by A.I.G. and about $20 billion more will be used to buy securities backed by home loans.

[ Click here to read more ]
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401(k) Plans Facing Changes

November 7th 2008 03:15
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What Does It Mean For The Election?

November 4th 2008 18:41
Gold is near to a breakout. Currently up 32.17 to $756.6, it needs to exceed the last high of $772.20 to give a short term buy signal. According to the video from Adam Hewison, that target is around $800.

Silver is also up today. Currently up $.32 to 10.11, it needs to top $10.14 (see chart
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New Gold Video On Gold's Direction

November 3rd 2008 18:50
Gold at the moment is perplexing to a great many traders. To many it was a shock when gold recently traded below the $700 an ounce level. So the question is, what happened to the $2,000 an ounce target that most gold bugs were calling for?

Adam Hewison just released <a Really Long Link new gold video</a> in which he explores that question and looks at what he thinks will be this markets next move. You might find hisr analysis and conclusions rather surprising


[ Click here to read more ]
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Recent Comments

Comment by Mike Landfair
on ARE THE CONSUMERS TO BLAME?

September 23rd 2008 05:15
Cibbuano, think what you want. The point of my post is:

"So what! Are we taxpayers supposed to rush in and make everyone whole? I say to heck with them all. I don't have much sympathy for victims. I think everyone should have the right to fail."

Comment by Mike Landfair
on How to make a career as a writer and get published

September 23rd 2008 05:06
I want to be a freelance writer and earn enough so that I will be able to write from somewhere warm with my toes in the sand.

Your first point, THE POWER OF CLARITY, cuts right to the heart of my problem. I have been vague about coming up with topics for querys. By the end of this month. I will have a list of topics and by the end of October, I will have submitted five queries to magazines.

Comment by Mike Landfair
on ARE THE CONSUMERS TO BLAME?

September 23rd 2008 00:31
I think there were a lot of borrowers that knew the papers they signed were fraudulent, yet they signed anyway.

I think there were a lot of brokers that made a ton of money winking at the rules and allowed or encouraged those borrowers to sign, and there were a lot of banks that loaned money knowing the papers were fraudulent..

So what! Are we taxpayers supposed to rush in and make everyone whole? I say to heck with them all. I don't have much sympathy for victims. I think everyone should have the right to fail.

Comment by Mike Landfair
on Paris preview: Saab 9X Air Concept

September 21st 2008 03:35
I drive a 1999 Saab now, and I would surely trade up to this. I like how Saab has pushed the wheels out to the corners like Mini Cooper and the Volvo C30

Comment by Mike Landfair
on The Oil Bull Resumes

August 21st 2008 23:27
Market Newbie, I enjoy your blog. It inspires me to write.

I don't agree with everything you say, but who does. You had a kernel of truth about the market and I took it in an another direction. If there's controversy, it only increases our readership and maybe we both learn something.

Thanks for stopping by.

Comment by Mike Landfair
on A GULLIBLE MARKET

August 21st 2008 05:30
Careful with your prognostications, Punk, my studies show that OIl is still trading above its long term trendline. Major support is at $100 to 105.

As for Gold, its trendline is in no danger of being broken. In fact the last major pullback was 22% and that's about where we are at this time. Painful, but no big deal.

Comment by Mike Landfair
on Just In: Russia ends its operation in Georgia

August 12th 2008 17:43
I made an illusion to Sudenteland, and was told that the comparison is not valid. Here's what US Army Col (ret) alph Peters, author of 23 books, including the new adventure-travel memoir, Looking for Trouble, which features several chapters of his experiences in Georgia and the Caucasus, said on the subject:

"Oh, and as for those Russian claims that it "had to protect its citizens," well, the Russians simply handed out passports to South Ossetians over the years in a de facto annexation the world ignored. Those "Russian citizens" are about as Russian as the citizens of Tulsa, Oklahoma."

He also writes about the oil pipeline:
As of this writing, at least a dozen attempts have been made to hit the crucial Caspian-Black Sea gas pipeline from the air-without success thus far.

This shows how inept was the performance of the air force, Putin's pride.

NATO should step up to the plate, BUT they are alll or soon to be dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas. It doesn't give them much leverage. We could freeze Russian assets in banks???

As far as leaping into the headlines quickly, I've read you don't do what Russia did without a lot of planning, so someone on ourside was caught with his pants down, or maybe we allowed Russia to fix its problem and they will allow us to fix our Iran problem.

Russia, BTW, doesn't seem too concerned about collateral damage!

I reject this premise:
"The expectation of unconditional NATO support for Georgia actions due to its loyalty to the West may have been the biggest mistake that the Georgian President made. When sent tanks he possibly saw Russia as a sleeping bear too tired be a world power in comparison to his new best friend the USA. Unfortunately this perception was wrong and Russia immediately retaliated with over whelming force."

What just happened? According to U.S. Army Col. (ret.) Ralph Peters' whose latest book, "Looking For Trouble," takes readers through Georgia, "The Russians ordered North Ossetian militiamen, backed by Russian "peacekeepers" and mercenaries, to provoke the Georgians earlier this month.

Weary of the Russian presence on their soil, the Georgians took the bait. President Mikheil Saakashvili ordered his US-trained military to respond.

That was the excuse the Kremlin wanted. Immediately, a tank brigade from Russia's 58th Army (the butchers of Chechnya) crossed the international border into Georgia."

We should be sticking up for the Georgians. This was engineered by Russia to put them in their place and send notice to anyone else thinking of joining NATO.

Comment by Mike Landfair
on THEY SUDDENLY GREW A CONSCIENCE?

July 20th 2008 06:18
"To me, the Law on Supply and Demand, only applies when the "buyers" are the "consumers." "

Niow, that's just silly thinking. A buyer is not limited to just consumers. Buyers are can have every reason in the world to buy including irrational, insane reasons to buy. That goes for sellers, too

Sorry!.