Fernando Monteiro

Sydney, New South Wales, AUSTRALIA


Joined November 3rd 2006

Number of Posts:
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I have fun writing and publishing my stories. I wish they interest and entertain you too.

About Me
My life has been mostly tribulation. All through it, though, my passion for writing my thoughts has not changed. Be welcome to read my stories.

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The Business of Insurance

October 29th 2009 14:12
Did you ever want to know all about the insurance business but were afraid to ask? Well, in this condensed article I present all the most relevant aspects of insurance in a made easy format, just for you.

Your first question might be just what is insurance? Insurance is about sharing risks. Insurance companies insure a large number of people, from whom they receive premiums, while only few make claims. This way insurance is about the many sharing the risk of the few.

Insurance started in England when ship captains shared their ship cargoes with other ships. If one ship sunk, only a fraction of the cargo would be lost. These arrangements were made in cafes in London and this was the beginning of the Lloyd’s of London. Insurance businesses started as mutual companies and non-profit organisations.

Some insurance lines are: motor vehicle (CTP, Green Slip, Full Cover, etc); professional indemnity (for error or incompetence related to the professions such as lawyers, engineers, doctors and accountants); niche markets (mobile homes in the US); property damage (fire, earthquake), work related (Worker’s Compensation), etc.

Insurance lines are typically: “short-tail” -- insurance products such as car insurance which expire in one year -- and “long-tail” -- insurance such as workers compensation, being the asbestos related compensation, 20 years after it was written, an example.

Typically, insurance companies share their risks with Reinsurance companies who charge a premium for the risks assumed. Suppose that an insurance company insures 40 per cent of the houses in a particular suburb. That may represent a high risk for that insurance company and it may want to share a large part of that risk with a reinsurance company which may take the most of it.

An insurance company pools the premiums received from insureds and must, at the beginning of each year, make provisions for the eventuality of a claim being made. This is a job for the actuary profession who, based on statistics and other calculations, must determine how much should be provisioned each year to pay future claims. Typically these reserves are 15 to 20 per cent of premium income.

It results obvious that the insurance business is one to be run by very conservative people and, in fact, the most conservative of them even use, on top of their reserves, another layer of reserves called prudential margins or, as the Swiss call them, “cushions”. Incidentally, instead of cushions, some insurance companies like using financial reinsurance, which may be questionable.

The reserves get consumed through the year, and sometimes in a following year, but while they are just laying there insurance companies invest them so as to make some gains from that money. The investment of reserves is typically ¾ fixed-interest securities and the rest equities. Fixed-interest securities are bonds and cash deposits which provide no or little risk and are easily convertible into cash. Equities are shares of stock which are more risky.

The reader might ask at this stage: how does an insurance company make a profit? It’s very simple: from the collected pool of premium it takes the reserves, adds to it the income from investing them and puts this final figure down as profit. This simple. Naturally, in a bad year, when it has to increase reserves, it may not have a profit, but then the invested reserves might have made some gains which then will help the bottom line.

QBE is an Australian insurance company based in Queensland. QBE’s Net Earned Premium stands at $11,087 million. Underwriting Profit is $3,184 million and has been positive in the last six years. Investment Income is $1,324 million, which is considerable. Net Profit is $1,859 million and Equity is $11,159 million having grown 3.4 times in the last six years. QBE’s EPS is $2.055 and its share price is $22.13, which represents a P/E of 10.8 times.
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Bricks and Mortar and Paper Money

September 19th 2009 11:35
The expression “paper money” is everywhere when stock prices change abruptly. Values, as so often happen in the stock market, go up and down suddenly, which to the common mortal implies that nothing is secure and from where the expression paper money. Funnily enough, real money, except for coins, is printed on paper.

Bricks and mortar appeal to values associated with houses and their social role to house and protect people from the elements, from where the expression “safe as houses”. But are they really safe? Truly, the so said safety of houses depends totally in the breadwinner being able to earn an income and pay the mortgage loan. In times of recession as now, many can’t do so and will lose their safe houses.

In great part, the financial crisis of 2008 that started in the US was due to people who could not pay their mortgages – the sub-prime house owners – and which prevented securitised owners from receiving their income from mortgage repayments. In a way, this is how houses are safe.

Moreover, financial constructions around houses and building often lure people to think that there investor’s money would be better protected. But is it the case? WestPoint built a complex array of housing funds and went broke, just like any other trust would, leaving investors with incredible losses and total misery. So, was it safe as houses or was it paper money?

I’m convinced that it’s the inherent convertibility into cash of both houses and shares that determines that they hold financial value. That value is no more brick and no less paper than our imagination, because money is money.

I consider that no one investment is superior to any other except for its intrinsic qualities on a one-by-one analysis basis. Some share investments are as safe as the rock of the nearest mountain; some house investments are as unsafe as the rugged hi-seas.

On the other hand, it’s their liquidity or the ability to be converted quickly into cash that determines their aptitude for volatility. Were shares to take three months to transact, as houses do, the stock market would be a much quieter and respectable place and people would say, instead of safe as houses, safe as stock.
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Myer is Listing in the ASX

September 13th 2009 11:54
Last Friday Jennifer Hawkins, Miss Universe 2004 and Myer’s face, and Bernie Brookes CEO joined forces to promote the new listing of Myer in the Australian stock exchange. Myer came off a period of three years of delisting and turnaround, the question to be asked being: will it now be the big bet everybody wants it to be?

Myer opened for trading in 1899 in Bendigo offering attractive merchandise and competitive prices to serve the well off as well as the common shopper. In 1911 The Myer Emporium in Melbourne opened for trade. Women loved Myer it for its product and for its marketing and promotions. The man behind it was Sidney Myer, a Russian migrant and a man reputed not only for his at the time futuristic business practices, but also for his many charitable activities.

In 2006 Myer, not performing well after an association with Coles, was bought out for $1.4 billion by Texas Pacific Group (TPG) and Blum Capital, both private equity interests that took 84.2 per cent of it, the Myer family who took 8.3 per cent and management 7.5 per cent. The company was then delisted from the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and trades privately. The man at the helm has been Bernie Brookes MD and Jennifer Hawkins its public face.

Results released on Friday for the full year 2009 reveal that while sales fell 1.8 per cent to $3,261 million, net profit after tax increased by 14.8 per cent to $109 million. Return on equity was 32.1 per cent. No profit guidance was given, except that Myer expects a 3 per cent sales growth and 10 per cent EBIT growth for full year 2010.

The fact is that Brookes has been cutting costs a lot, from where the increase in net profit, being the question now to be asked wether that is sustainable into the foreseeable future. Moreover, it’s now being discussed between investors wether TPG should keep a stake in the listed Myer, something that would be seen as a warranty that the cost containment within Myer is sustainable.

Myer has at this stage debt of $694 million, not a small amount by any means, being its gearing 65 per cent. Upon floating that debt should be reduced to $450 million.

The Myer concept is based on selling high quality merchandise for a not too high price and achieved a sales margin of 7.23 cents in the dollar. David Jones makes an higher sales margin at around 10 cents in the dollar. Bellow Myer are the discount stores such as BigW with smaller margins.

Applications for the share offer will be accepted between 6 and 11 of October. Trading in the ASX will start in the beginning of November.
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ANZ Bank and Asia’s Growth

September 4th 2009 12:07
Of all the four major Australian banks, ANZ is the one who has for many decades to now been seeking the gold that is in Asia’s growth. As a matter of fact, ANZ aims at becoming a “super regional bank” in Asia, a bank whose operations spread through the whole of Asia, and to sourcing 20 per cent of its net profit from Asia by 2012.

In this line of action, ANZ just last June purchased from retiring Royal Bank of Scotland its Asian operations for US$850 million. Reflecting on the opportunity, Mike Smith, ANZ’s CEO, said it was a “once in a lifetime opportunity”. It’s interesting to notice that, at ANZ, every incoming CEO has to accept and promote the Asian ambition and policy of action


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David Jones (DJS) sells upmarket products, shoes, frocks, hand bags and cosmetics priced dearly and makes a fortune doing so. Its 2008 net profit was $147 million on revenues of more than $2 billion. What’s David Jones secret?

In part the answer is that the Australian public is greatly affluent, commands large disposable incomes, and likes buying from distinct places such as David Jones. In part the answer for its success is that David Jones knows how to create a buying experience that will both delight and distinguish the upmarket customer


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It’s not too often that you hear of a business that returns 48 per cent on equity. Just think how much your money in the bank is earning. Well, The Reject Shop (TRS) just posted a net profit of $19 million for 2008-09, an increase of 14 per cent on the previous year which, you will agree, in current times is a feat.

According to the SMH last Thursday, 20 August 2009, the “the trend has improved” and The Reject Shop plans to open 22 new stores to a total 171 by year end. The shop appeals to customers who look for value and, not surprisingly, opens for trade in typically labour suburbs. What they sell? The shop sells general merchandise, from laundry powder to Pepsi Max to baby food to almost anything, cheap


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BHP Billiton has been hit hard by the current recession and its net profit has fallen by 62 per cent to US$5.88 billion, this way ending a seven year cycle of increasing profits. Is mining not attractive anymore? Stay with me.

Mining is a simple economic activity: basically, you prospect an area, when you hit on something you get a licence to mine and you then transport your product to somewhere your customer requires


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The Crucial Role of Agriculture

August 9th 2009 13:29
Today we come into contact with agriculture when we hear of ponzi schemes such as Timbercorp and Great Southern who went broke and whose only investment value was to reduce taxes payable by their shareholders. Yet, agriculture has since ever in our history played a crucial role in economic evolution. If not, let’ see.

In the Neolitic man learned the trick of sowing, planting and reaping. As a result populations became sedentary, stuck to a particular ground, since the grain from one season could be stored part for consumption and part for another season of sowing


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This week Kerry Stokes, majority owner of Channel 7, increased his ownership of James Packer’s Consolidated Media Holdings to almost 20 per cent. He will certainly try to buy the whole of it, but, in an old style, Stokes will never pay the extra that normally is asked from someone making a bid for the whole company.

What Stokes has in view by acquiring a position in CMH is the pay TV channels Foxtel, Fox Sports and the internet job website Seek that CMH owns. James Packer is putting up a fight by increasing with urgency his own stake in CMH to 40 per cent so that he can continue to dominate it


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Do You Try to Read the Market?

July 20th 2009 13:11
Do you get carried over reading the market wrap on the newspaper everyday? Do you listen with much attention every night the market report on TV? If you do, you have at least one interesting belief about investing in the stock market, which is that you can only make money when the market goes up and, conversely, that you can only lose money when it goes down. Therefore your obsession with it. But is that really the only way to invest and make money? Let’s see.

Do you realise that when you invest in lockstep with the rest of the market something unavoidable happens, which is that you then tend to buy high and when prices are going up, and that you also tend to sell low and when prices are going down. But, notice and be assured that buying high and selling low is not the way to a great fortune


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Recent Comments

Comment by Fernando Monteiro
on Will Qantas be Sold?

December 9th 2006 08:22
Hi,

If Qantas can keep the attributes that made it successfull, such as service and safety, then appart from onership nothing should change. Notice that Qantas management, including its MD, will take a part of it (up to $100 million).

I just wonder whether the bid will be acceptable given the restrictions on foreign ownershipt of Qantas.

Bye,
FM