Dr. Liberty

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, UNITED STATES


Joined April 26th 2009

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Recent Posts

Cardinals Add Matt Holliday

July 24th 2009 17:22
The Cardinals have traded third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson and right-hander Clayton Mortensen for Oakland A's OF Matt Holliday.

Update:

Cardinals receive:
Matt Holliday - The 29-year-old outfielder had been the best hitter for the Oakland A's this season; however, his drop in power this year, compared to his years in Colorado, made him somewhat of a disappointment compared to his expectations. In July, Holliday has heated up, hitting 3 HR and 7 2B in 68 at bats. He will also provide solid defense in the outfield and another offensive threat in the Cardinals lineup outside of Pujols. The Cards owe him $4 million for his services the rest of the year, after which he becomes a free agent.

Athletics receive:
Brett Wallace - Wallace was the best prospect in the Cardinals system and one of the top 25 overall. His defense may force him to shift from 3B to 1B, which would bring his offensive value down, but he can flat out hit. At 22-years-old, it will not take long for him to become an important part of the A's offense.

Shane Peterson - Peterson will probably end up as a starter for a bad team or a fourth outfielder for a good team.

Clayton Mortensen - Least likely of the three to make the major leagues, but he could end up as an innings-eater in a rotation some day.

Overall: The Cardinals give up a huge prospect in Brett Wallace, but they drastically improve their chances of making the playoffs (and if you make it, anything can happen). The A's forfeited the picks they would have received for holding Holliday, but Brett Wallace is a sure-thing to hit in the majors and they are relieved of $4 million for the rest of Holliday's contract. In the end, the A's look to be the slight winners, but it depends on if Wallace reaches his potential and/or if Holliday helps to deliver a World Series to St. Louis.
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The NL Central is the only division where all of the teams are still close enough to win the division. At the bottom, the Pirates are aggressively rebuilding their team, but they have managed to stay within a single-digit deficit. The Reds have been outscored by 65 runs this season, but they are still only 6 games back. But the Cubs, Brewers, and Astros look to be the serious threats to the Cardinals staying on top of the division.

Standings

St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs 1.5 GB
Houston Astros 1.5 GB
Milwaukee Brewers 2.5 GB
Cincinnati Reds 6 GB
Pittsburgh Pirates 8.5 GB


Playoff Contenders

St. Louis Cardinals

Strength: Pujols and two aces. Albert Pujols has been hands-down the best offensive player in baseball this year. He has a line of .328/.450/.711 with 34 HR and 90 RBI. The Cards also boast two of the best pitchers in the game in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Carpenter has a 2.26 ERA with pinpoint control and only 4 balls leaving the yard. Wainwright has his own impressive 2.95 ERA with a dominant 8.16 K/9.

Weakness: All hitters not named Pujols. The Cardinals have had a fairly productive offense this season, but that is due entirely to Pujols. Behind Pujols' .450 OBP and 34 HR, the next-best regular has an OBP of .366 and only 3 HR. They have also given significant playing time to Thurston, Duncan, Ryan, and Rasmus, all with OBPs below .330 and Barden, Ankiel, and both Greenes, all with OBPs below .300. Ryan Ludwick, with his 16 HR, is the only other player to offer any power of note; although, a .340 OBP and time missed to an injury make him far less than a star in the OF.

Chicago Cubs

Strength: Deep rotation. The Cubs' rotation does not have a Cy Young candidate in it, but they do go three deep with guys that would be the ace for many other teams. Ted Lilly has combined his 7.83 K/9 with a low 1.90 BB/9 to produce a 3.59 ERA, Randy Wells has kept the ball in the yard and limited walks for a 3.00 ERA, and Carlos Zambrano has also kept the ball in the yard while striking out 7.5 per 9 innings. Following up these three, Ryan Dempster has been more than an adequate fourth starter, posting an ERA of 4.09. Rich Harden has been burdened by a high HR rate, but his high K:BB ratio point to a rebound in the second half.

Weakness: Offense. Jake Fox has been their most productive hitter, but he has only 98 plate appearances. Derrek Lee (18 HR) and Alfonso Soriano (16 HR) are the only guys on the team with double-digit home run totals, but they have OBPs of only .354 and .309, respectively. Fukudome has a has a nice .375 OBP, but no power. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with an injury and was not much better than average when he did play. Soto has turned into a singles hitter. Milton Bradley (6) has only three more home runs than Carlos Zambrano (3), in 228 more plate appearances. They also have gotten a handful of performances that are just too terrible to even mention. If the Cubs somehow make the playoffs, they have nowhere near the offense to produce against the aces of a playoff team.

Houston Astros

Strength: Offense. Aside from Darrin Erstad and Kaz Matsui trying as hard as they can to not get on base, the Astros have had a surprisingly effective offense. Berkman has been the catalyst, with a .407 OBP and 18 HR. Carlos Lee has helped to supply some more power to the lineup with 15 HR. Tejada has hit .327 with 30 doubles at SS, a position where having an offensive threat has basically been non-existent in the league. Hunter Pence has gotten on base at a solid clip while providing some pop. Michael Bourn and his blinding speed have managed a .357 OBP with 36 stolen bases.

Weakness: Rotation depth. While Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt have been a good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, the remaining starters have struggled to produce. Brian Moehler and Mike Hampton have ERAs in the high-4.00's, while not going deep into starts. They have used both Russ Ortiz and Felipe Paulino as #5 starters, but they have managed less than impressive numbers, with ERAs as starters of 5.02 and 5.80, respectively.

Milwaukee Brewers

Strength: Offense. The Brewers' offense is the strongest in the division. Prince Fielder has become one of the best bats in the majors this year, bashing 24 HR and posting a .438 OBP. Ryan Braun would be the best hitter on most other teams, getting on base 38.6% of the time and hitting 18 home runs. Cameron has filled in well as the third most productive hitter in the lineup, with 14 HR and a .366 OBP. Rookie Casey McGehee has made about as much use of 178 plate appearances as a player could, with a .910 OPS. Speaking of doing a lot in a short amount of time, new addition Felipe Lopez has hit .556 in 10 plate appearances. Old-man Craig Counsell still knows how to get on base.

Weakness: All starters not named Yovanni. While Gallardo has been dominant this year, the rest of the rotation has not caught on to what it takes to pitch well. Looper is 9-4, but has an ERA of 4.64, strikes out too few, walks too many, and allows way too many home runs. Jeff Suppan has been the definition of hittable. Dave Bush and Manny Parra have sky-high ERAs. If it weren't for the effort of the guys on offense, the #2-#5 slots in the rotation would have a hard time winning a game.
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It appears that Adam LaRoche, who is not in the starting lineup for Pittsburgh today, has been traded to the Red Sox. There is no word yet on who it is for. I will update/analyze as soon as further information is revealed.

Update: The Pirates received SS Argenis Diaz and P Hunter Strickland in return. More analysis in a moment.

Update: Everyone seems to be in agreement that 22-year-old SS Diaz is a tremendous defender, but he has done next to nothing from the plate in four years of Minor League ball. Unless he magically learns how to hit someday, he is probably nothing more than a solid defensive replacement in the bigs. He is definitely not a potential replacement for Jack Wilson, unless the Pirates want an even poorer-hitting version of Jack Wilson.

The buzz on (almost) 21-year-old RHP Hunter Strickland is that he throws around 90 mph and could eventually make his way into a major-league bullpen, but his stuff is only about average.

As for Adam LaRoche, he has struggled mightily so far in July, he has an OPS around .775, and he is no better than average in the field. On the plus side, he generally performs well in the second half, the Red Sox only have to pay for 2 months from him, and the Red Sox may be compensated with a draft pick when he becomes a free agent this offseason.

At the end of the day, the Red Sox got themselves added hitting depth without having to give up any important pieces, and the Pirates were able to unload an extraneous member of their team who would have been gone in two months anyways for a future defensive replacement at SS and a future arm in the pen. This trade will take years to determine the winner, but for right now, a slight edge to the Red Sox because they received the only clear major-league talent in the deal, and the Pirates may end up covering the cost of LaRoche for the rest of the season.
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The "Buy American" Fallacy

July 22nd 2009 16:26
Watch this short video over at Reason.tv to learn why "Buy American" is not such a great idea.
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Michael Jackson's funeral ended up costing the city approximately $1.4 million. To help fund the city's expenses, the acting mayor, while the real mayor was on vacation, set up a website for people to donate money to cover the expenses of the funeral for the city. After raising $35,000 donated voluntarily in a short amount of time, the mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, returning home from vacation, was not very happy about someone else besides the city paying for the expenses:

"This is a world-class city, and we provide fire and police protection, period. The idea that we would charge the family for a funeral is nonsensical," he said during his first public appearance today, calling the website set up by his office to solicit donations "ridiculous."

[ Click here to read more ]
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Keeping Obama Honest

July 18th 2009 18:40
Great post by Greg Mankiw at his blog:

President Obama will hold a press conference this coming Wednesday. Here are two questions I would like to see the press ask him:

[ Click here to read more ]
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While the American League Central lacks a truly great team, they do have three teams above .500 that should be fighting hard for the division title in the second half: the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins. They also have two of the worst teams in the league, the Royals and Indians.

Standings


[ Click here to read more ]
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This season, the division that delivered us the World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies last year has instead decided to offer only two teams over .500. They also can boast the worst team in the majors, by far, with the Washington Nationals, which a group of 12 random guys off the street could have probably performed as well as their pitching staff. The Phillies again seem to be well on their way to the playoffs, but the Marlins, Braves, and Mets are still hanging around.

Standings


[ Click here to read more ]
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The media is reporting the House Democrats plan to place a 5.4% surtax on income over $350,000. However, this is a misrepresentation of the true increase of the tax. Currently, there is a 35% marginal rate, which will be raised by 5.4 percentage points (not percent) to 40.4%. This would be an increase of 15.4% (= 5.4%/35%). To be truly accurate, the media should be reporting that the House Democrats are proposing a 15.4% surtax.
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It appears that Philadelphia has signed Pedro Martinez after he "passed" a physical for them; however, he will apparently head straight to the disabled list.

The Phillies have had the best offense in the majors this season, even with Ryan Howard not getting on base nearly as much as he did in 2006 and 2007 and Jimmy Rollins appearing to have completely forgotten how to hit. Their pitching, however, has been in the bottom third of all teams. Starters Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels, and especially Jamie Moyer have been plagued by the long ball and have posted ERAs of 4.44, 4.87, and 5.99, respectively. Rookie J.A. Happ has been the best starter, but he projects as only a #4/#5 starter, so the sustainability of his performance so far is questionable. Current fifth starter Rodrigo Lopez has posted an ERA of 3.18 in two starts, but his career 4.78 ERA does not portend a bright future. The other starters that came and left the rotation were all ineffective and are now either in the bullpen or hurt


[ Click here to read more ]
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Recent Comments

Comment by Dr. Liberty
on Subsidized Free Market living off the poor

May 4th 2009 17:09
Well, the countries in South America saying "yes" to Free Trade are the ones prospering relative to the South American countries saying "No."

Africa has said "No" to Free Trade and we see that has done them much good.

East Asian countries said "Yes" to Free Trade and saw the most miraculous ascent from poverty to wealth, while lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.

You are only focusing on the losses of trade without recognizing the benefits from trade, which far outweigh the losses in most instances.

"Stimulating" the domestic economy merely means a welfare loss to U.S. citizens via higher prices and a loss of jobs to those employed in U.S. businesses that rely on imports. Closing off Free Trade would have drastic negative effects to the U.S. economy and Free Trade was in NO way responsible for the current crisis.

By the way, trade deficits are determined by the difference in domestic savings and domestic investment. Since low interest rates (and other factors) have discouraged saving by U.S. citizens, it was necessary to go abroad to fill the gap needed to fund the rest of our investments. This in turn leads to a trade deficit. Trade deficits have nothing to do with the "free"-ness of trade, but rather with the level of savings.

Comment by Dr. Liberty
on Subsidized Free Market living off the poor

May 4th 2009 03:38
If you have something else in mind for Free Trade, like moving production to places just for the sake of cheaper labor, then you should come up with a different term. Free Trade means something entirely different. Free Trade is desirable and has contributed greatly to our economic prosperity. Free Trade should not be attacked by defining as something it is not.

You said
About ten years ago a report came out and said this about the Trade Deficit. The lost values due to the Trade Deficit could translate into the U.S. giving every single American family $50,000 to buy a home. This means there would have most likely never been a mortgage crisis and a breakdown of the financial markets surrounding it. It means a value of $50,000 in value was lost for every family in the USA.
The trade deficit represents us importing more value than we export. How can this mean the U.S. has lost value? Also, your conclusion that their never would have been an economic crisis if we just gave every American family $50,000 does not seem like a logical argument.

You said,
The lost of jobs were due to Free Trade. How can anything good come from 700,000 workers in steel industry, 400,000 in auto mfg and more than a million workers losing their jobs in the computer industry. This too was the result of unfair so called Free Trade. Due to Free Trade, the U.S. has gone through the most massive dislocation of jobs in history including the Great Depression.
Unemployment rates have been extremely low since America has become more intertwined with the global economy. More jobs have been created in the U.S., that pay more, than destroyed. As well, studies show that other factors are much more responsible for any job losses than trade (i.e. FED monetary policy, technology). It is not at all accurate to fault trade for lost jobs.

You seem to ignore that U.S. citizens gain via cheaper goods from abroad. If a citizen were forced to "buy domestically" it would be more expensive. Thus leading to lower "real" wages. Americans gain from engaging in voluntary transactions with the rest of the world.

Also, businesses clearly do not just gravitate toward the lowest wages, or else there would be huge investment in Africa, where wages would be the lowest, but this is not the case.

Comment by Dr. Liberty
on Subsidized Free Market living off the poor

May 3rd 2009 13:28
My question is clearly not self-evident, and your answer does not make it any more clear.

As for the forecasts, predicting an economic crisis does not mean that if it happens your reasons are correct. I could, starting today, predict that an economic crisis will occur in the next 20 years because MLB tickets have gotten more expensive. If a crisis occurs, then I will look like a prophet for making this prediction, but the crisis probably occurred for an entirely different reason.

Also, your post about the reasons just lists things, places an equal sign, and then "economic crisis." I am quite knowledgeable on this subject, yet I disagree with these reasons.

First off, I think you may be defining Free Trade and Globalization differently than me. True free trade would be simply the elimination of all barriers to trade. Globalization would be the free flow of labor, capital, goods, information, etc. across borders. As far as my research goes, these two things have led to millions upon millions of people escaping poverty in the world. As well, in the U.S. and generally everywhere, free trade and globalization have led to higher compensation.

Also, a trade deficit is not inherently a bad thing. It means that we are giving up less value than we are gaining. You run a massive trade deficit with your grocery store, "importing" thousands of dollars worth of goods without "exporting" a single item to them. Would you call this deficit a loss?

I agree that "making money on money" is likely not sustainable. I agree that going into massive debt is also likely not sustainable. I however do NOT agree that these have been caused by "free trade and globalization." These have been due to the government distorting financial markets and the FED promoting spending instead of saving.

Comment by Dr. Liberty
on Swine Flu Brings Out Our Racist Side

May 3rd 2009 13:19
First off, a trade deficit is not inherently a bad thing. It means that we are giving up less value than we are gaining. You run a massive trade deficit with your grocery store, "importing" thousands of dollars worth of goods without "exporting" a single item to them. Would you call this deficit a loss?

Also, teh Maquiladoras exist to such a high degree because of a clause in NAFTA that states products shipped from the U.S. to Mexico can either be shipped back to the U.S. duty-free or, if they stay in Mexico, taxed, This will obviously distort free trade and prevent Mexicans from gaining wealth in their country. That said, the Maquiiadoras do offer an increased wage to Mexican workers compared to what they made before these factories were available. For the U.S., people working in these factories can now allow Mexicans to work these jobs and move to a higher-paying job in the U.S. This is the specialization and division of labor of free trade.

Also, I'm not sure what a stimulus to Mexico has to do with anything?

You are right that NAFTA is not really free trade, but you are wrong that it is an experiment by "Globalists and free traders."

Mexico's trade with the U.S. has, and will, continue to assist in their ascent out of poverty, meaning a better living standard for virtually all their people in the long run. To rally against FREE trade in the aim of helping the poor will only result in hurting the poor.

Comment by Dr. Liberty
on Subsidized Free Market living off the poor

May 2nd 2009 22:27
How are Free Trade and Globalization the main causes of the current economic crisis?