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bit by bit we will get there if.....

November 15th 2010 06:15
The economic quake that shook the Zimbabwe’s business operations produced knock-on effects that were detrimental to the running of the nation’s businesses.

As the country is trying to recuperate from the quagmire, it is of paramount importance for the nation to adopt homegrown and innovative policies that can help in the revitalisation drive.
The recent worldwide recession enhanced the business’ quandary. It resulted in a scenario where the customary world economic financial powerhouses are reeling from the shock.
The ripple effects have been transferred to nations like Zimbabwe who are like intensive care patients who expect the medical personnel (world power houses) to feed and inject them. Unfortunately, the medics are also ailing.
The antidote lies in the patient’s realisation of the need to stand up and stagger to the tray to grab some medicine and food. It is high time the nation realises this and stops expecting huge financial aid inflows (at least for now).
We have to “eat what we gather” and this requires a high level of prudence in the allocation of the gathered resources. The sections of the economy that have the greatest potential of leading the resuscitation drive should have more resources allocated to them if economic healing of the economy is to be achieved.
Economic development can be propagated by either a gradualist approach or a big push criterion. The gradualist approach is a slow movement towards economic growth.
The economic recovery process will be characterised by imperceptible changes rather than through abrupt, major changes. The small changes will result in perceptible changes over long periods of time. One of the “imperceptible” changes that we need as a nation is the manner in which the scarce financial resources are distributed.
The big push criterion is when big investments are injected into the economy thereby resulting in massive boosting of the nation’s economic growth. This translates to increments in the nation’s employment levels, and foreign currency reserves. It may also result in a favourable balance of payments.
The big push approach is ideally the best approach but nevertheless it requires a huge capital inflow into the economy. Zimbabwe is in a transitional period where a quest to redeem itself from the shadows of the economic quandary is the ultimate aspiration.
The economic blueprints that were crafted in this era centred much on the anticipation of the nation’s ability to utilise the big push approach.
Unfortunately, the whopping investments are not flowing as initially expected. The limited financial inflows into the country imply that a gradualist approach to economic development has to be implemented.
One of the major “imperceptible” changes that should be implemented is the allocation of financial resources. The limited funds that are flowing in from the different sectors of the economy should be rechannelled to the most strategic productive units of the nation such as the small to medium enterprises (SMEs) sector.
The role of the SMEs has been generally misunderstood and underestimated by most nations. The use of large enterprises as the main driving force of the economy has been utilised by some nations. Nevertheless a developing economy like ours with large volumes of informal trading needs to formalise the informal sector to boost its economy.
Some economies, Tanzania being an exceptional example, have seen their economies being boosted by the SMEs. In developed nations such as the United States of America about 60 percent of the employed are in SMEs. The sector contributes about 50 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and 30-60 percent of the exports. If developed nations are benefiting from the SME sector, why not us?
Growth without equity is futile in the poor man’s perception. One of the major virtues of the SMEs inclusion in the economic recovery drive is the possible attainment of growth with equity. In cases where there is growth without equity the low income earners will be very instrumental in the preparation of the national cake but will have to consume crumps when the cake is ready. The channelling of financial resources to the small enterprises is de rigueur step in towards the attainment of growth with equity.
The standards of living of the ordinary people can also be enhanced if the SME sector is adequately supported. Africa’s economies are infested with low income earners who cannot break into the business circles easily. Most of these earners are trapped in a vicious circle of poverty. Their disposable income is low, thereby resulting in low savings, very insignificant investments and ultimately poor standards of living. The recurring process continues until an effective external influence such as a government policy is implemented.
The reliance of income earners on their wages and salaries will propagate the effects of the poverty circle’s wiles. There is need to develop and support an entrepreneurial culture to break this.
There is a dire need to implement policies that boost the SMEs operations. Less stringent rules should be adopted in the opening of the small scale business operations. The SME sector’s contributions to the nation’s GDP will be of great assistance to the convalescence of the economy. Zimbabwe is endowed with numerous valuable resources. The effective utilisation of these resources can be boosted by the inclusion of the small private players in the economic affairs.
The stabilisation of the economic environment led to the birth and re-birth of numerous SMEs and the onus is upon the government to support the sector. A clear credit system that ensures that the potentially productive SMEs are supported should be enacted. This will reduce the mortality rates (closure level) of these SMEs. Bit by bit we’l get there if we can develop and support a strong entrepreneurial culture.
This is very essential for the future competitiveness of the Zimbabwean economy and for generating growth. Financial and technical advice should also be offered to the existing SMEs to ensure entrepreneurial dynamism which creates a strong and vibrant business community. Economic development can be achieved if our policies are able to provide business starters with the skills for starting and managing a business in an increasingly competitive environment.

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african market for lemons

July 31st 2010 11:08
Poor nations are poor because they are poor. Their poor markets are also flooded with poor quality products because they are poor.

One of the most underdeveloped parts of the world, Africa has commodity markets which suffer from this predicament. Some experts assert that the African markets structure and high concentration of poor quality commodities is as a result of richer nations dumping. Poor quality products and discards are channeled to the unfortunate continent, so they claim. Is that really so? If so why do we purchase them?
Are richer nations really dumping their low quality products? The activities in the African goods market can be elucidated by Gresham’s Law, which states that the “bad drive out the good”. In George Akerlof (1970) market for lemons’ analysis of the second hand vehicles market he discovered that the market for second hand vehicles is eventually flooded by defective vehicles due to Gresham’s Law. In his propositions the bad quality vehicles drive out the good quality ones. In the market for cars the bad cars drive out the good due to the buyer’s unwillingness to part with real money or inability to do likewise. This theory is highly applicable to the African markets. The African markets are usually flooded with poor quality products due to the continent’s acceptance of average products.
Rich nations present high quality products which can be likened to the “cherries” in Akerlof’s Market for Lemons propositions and poor quality goods (lemons) are presented to the market. Inadequate purchasing power and information asymmetry result in scenarios where buyers opt for averagely priced products assuming that the quality is also average. Nevertheless the seller possesses supplementary information about the product’s quality. The foreign sellers will present their products to the market at an affordable price. The “reasonable” prices will attract the clients and acquisitions are made.
The West, East and Middle East all compete to conquer the African market. Lemons and cherries will then be offered to the markets and due to the continent’s inability to pay exorbitant prices; the poor quality (lemons) products are purchased. The richer nations possess a comparative advantage on the production of both cherries and lemons. Their ability to produce them at relatively lower cost implies that they can easily flood our markets with the products. The onus is upon us to choose cherries or lemons. Unfortunately our buying power makes that decision for us.
Of interest in our Zimbabwean market are the so called zhing-zhong products. Purchasers of these often complain of their quality level. It is commonly agreed that the quality level of these is very low. If the quality is genuinely sub-standard, why do consumers flock the zhing-zhong shops? These products are offered at reasonable prices which attract the average man on the street. Economically it can be argued that these products are a threat to the local infant industries but socially they are of great benefit to the local consumer.
Should the nation adopt protectionist policies and assist the middle level consumer? In the short run this may decrease the low quality products but nevertheless worsening the consumer’s plight since the market will be flooded with good quality products (cherries) which are expensive and beyond the average man’s reach. Protectionism in this case is like fire fighting through the utilisation of petrol. The policy is effective in a country whose productive capacity is sound.
A possible long term solution to the problem of dumping is increasing Africa’s productive capacity. The continent is full of resource endowments. Utilisation of these to produce the much needed food, clothing and shelter will assist reduce the average man’s plight. Over the years the rich continents have acquired Africa’s resource endowments, added value on them and resold them to their mother source, Africa. The average quality products are directed to the continent. Lemons and rarely cherries are sold to the African continent due to Africa’s inability to purchase the expensive cherries.
In some cases consumers “opt” for the low quality goods. Every merx has two distinct prices, a market price and the natural price. The natural price does not need one to research on. It is that price that a buyer will be willing to offer for the merx regardless of the market forces. The hyperinflationary environment that prevailed in Zimbabwe gave birth to consumers who are eager to get as much consumer surplus as possible. They compromise on the goods’ quality level in order for them to maximise on excess of natural over the market price (consumer surplus). Lemons are consequently acquired.
This trend of purchasing poor quality products ranging from jewellery, automobiles to knitting needles may continue until the African nations start producing its own cherries. It is high time we start acquiring the necessary skills and technology and commence heavy production. Resources are readily available and all we need is a paradigm shift. Value addition of our products has been encouraged but nothing has really occurred on the ground. Our minerals are still exported in their raw state. This doesn’t only affect the nation’s GDP levels. It strikes hard on the poor African man on the street, who is forced to purchase cheap poor quality products available in the market. A month down the line he has to purchase a similar product due to the non durability of the merx. The nation is eagerly awaiting the gesticulations of a paradigm shift. The production of our own products at low cost due to the readily available resources in the continent and their subsequent value addition can significantly reduce the intensity of the lemon concentration in the African markets and improve the cherries concentration.
The four Asian tigers’ unique shift in business approach resulted in massive investments in the countries. A shift of Africa’s business ideology can result in the African tigers. Africa’s resource endowments are arguably second to none, so why can’t we do it? It’s high time we embark on cherry production and shun the lemons
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February 6th 2008 06:43

The Central Bank of Zimbabwe introduced new notes,thereby increasing money supply.This monetary shock resulted in the "overshooting" of the parallel market exchange rate.The rates which had been highly suppressed by the cash shortages rose tremendously.

The Dornbursh sticky price model explains such an increment as due to a change in the relationship of the asset-related portfolios.When the money supply is increased,the rate of substitution of money for bonds increases.With more money the public opts for the purchasing of bonds.Individuals will opt for anything that stores the value of their money.Some will purchase forex,uniit trusts shares and possibly stock market shares.The hyperinflationary environment will lead to rationale individuals seeking investments which have a reasonable return.Increased demand for forex,for example will lead to the "shooting" of the rates.In Zimbabwe when prices finally adjusted to the monetary shock,the parallel market rates decreased.

These trends can help policy makers and the small entrepreneurs make logical decisions.Most of the business practise in the country relies heavily on these rates.Most of the prices in the supermarkets,clothing shops etc are based on these rates.

In conclusion whenever there is a monetary shock in the market,the reaction of the market forces via the exchange rates is greater than the final (long run) reaction.Past experience can therefore be used to build on adaptive expectations.
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