Buffalo: Pretenders or Contenders?
November 3rd 2011 01:37
It's Week 9, and the Buffalo Bills sit atop the AFC East division with a 5-2 record. They are hosting the New York Jets this Sunday in a critical game for both squads. For Buffalo, wins over Philly and AFC East rival New England offset losses to 5-2 Cincy and 5-2 New York Giants. This is the Bills' 2nd AFC East game.
The issue at hand is whether or not we average non-Buffalo but NFL-following fan believes in said Bills? This was not a team expected to compete for AFC East crowns. This was not a team expected to be atop the AFC in record by mid-season. Given the fact that so many so-called strong teams have swooned in recent years down the stretch, and the fact that so many thought so little of the Bills, does this mean that the Bills will swoon down the stretch, or are they really for real?
At QB, the Bills have essentially a journeyman in Ryan Fitzpatrick. A look at his stats reveals much. In 3 previous seasons where he had 10 or more starts his percentage completion was about 57%. This year so far it is 67%. His average yards per pass have increased steadily over the past three plus seasons. At the half-way point of the year, his 14 TDs and 7 INTs put him on pace to roughly match his 2010 totals of 23/15. Most telling, he has a career passer rating of 77.1; this year he's at 97.8. He is in his 2nd full year under Chan Gailey, and all QBs do better in stable offensive environments, and Gailey has long been considered a brilliant offensive mind. Is his jump in stats a function of the coach being better, Fitzpatrick being better, both, or is it a statistical anomaly, indicating that he will come back to earth?
The Bills have ridden RB Fred Jackson and WR Stevie Johnson primarily. Jackson has reached the 30 year age barrier. But with CJ Spiller waiting in the wings, it's possible that Spiller could add significant production in a stretch run.
Schedule-wise, the Bills have their home-and-homes remaining with the Jets and Dolphins. They have to go to Dallas to complete their slate of NFC East teams. They also get Tennessee, San Diego and Denver with the season finale in New England.
My overall guess is that Fitzpatrick will settle out with lower passer ratings, as defenses and weather conditions become more adverse. However, that does not automatically equate to losses. There are several very winnable games on their schedule, including both Miami games and the Denver game. I would figure on at least a split with the Jets. Figure they win at least one out of the Tennessee, San Diego and Dallas games. That gives them 10 wins heading into the season finale. It would not surprise me one bit if New England is also sitting on 10 wins at Week 17. A duel in Foxboro for the right for the AFC East crown is certainly within reach.
Overall, I have some belief in the Bills. They are fundamentally sound. They are well-coached. They execute their game plans well. They do not make many mistakes and they have not cost themselves games thus far. The total package as a whole is better than each individual part. In my opinion that makes their margin of error exceptionally thin, but they have managed to do well so far. Their season could turn in an instant; it's easily foreseeable that they drop to 8-8 by season's end. But I think that perhaps they won't, and perhaps there's enough talent, desire and football IQ to at least get into the playoffs.
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