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Two leading American economists say the baton for the world's leading economy could this Saturday effectively be passed from the US to China, at the G20 New York meeting of world leaders hosted by US President George Bush.
Postscript after meeting: No change in world leader took place at G20 meeting multilaterally. But bilaterally, Kevin Rudd got Hu Jintao's blessing to push the China/Australia free trade deal ahead.
Economics professors Alan Binder (Princeton) and Martin Feldstein (Harvard) called China's announced plans to inject four trillion Yuan in economic stimulus over the next two years (about US$586 billion), a big jolt and made these observations while speaking on PBS News Hour Monday night.
President Hu Jintao wants to boost China's GDP to recover from recent slips in the monthly measured annual figure to 7 percent, down from 12 percent previously, because 7 percent pa isn't enough to support China's massive demographic shift from rural-living to the nation's industrial centres.
Hu is coming to George Bush's 15 November World Economic Summit in New York when something akin to a passing of the baton for the leading world economy might now be a real possibility.
With 10 percent of world economic activity, China is currently second to the US but already is out-right first in world economic growth, accounting for a third.
Its massive US$586 billion economic stimulus package is equivalent to the US spending US$1 trillion, but theres no sign yet of one being announced. (The professors discussed the possibility that President-elect Obama won't wait until his January 2009 start-date, but as a US Senator could push ahead with ESP legislation ahead of January.)
Unlike the US, China's decisive economic stimulus action is facilitated by good economic management during the boom, also its favorable trading surplus and very little debt.
China's massive economic stimulus package is a "good fit" for US-made capital goods like electricity turbines and Caterpillar tractor manufacturers, and it promises a lot on top of the ten-fold increase recently in such goods exported from the US to China.
Expecting a "long and deep" recession, the professors stressed that governments' economic stimulus spending should be for capital goods and infrastructure, and be started promptly - not like the years of delay the US economy experienced in the 1930s until spending on WW2 war preparation started to produce the desired affect.
Both derided the effectiveness of government cash handouts (such as our pre-Christmas one to Aussie pensioners),"because so much doesn't go to spending but gets used to reduce personal debt or put-aside for safe-keeping".
Binder suggested that Obama should postpone half of his election-pledged tax restructuring. Feldstein disagreed, saying the wealthy needed to be told that increases at the highest end wouldn't go ahead, to discourage them from diverting spending to reduce debt in anticipation of the increases.
Ends
What lies ahead with Obama was covered on SBS today by PBS's News Hour.
American Public Broadcasting Service's insight on the matter came from New York Times columnist David Brooks and syndicated columnist Mark Shields (4.30-to-5.30pm today Aust EST).
Brooks predicted President Obama will opt for a steady-as-she-goes approach to implementing programs, to cover all the change hes been talking about. Thats in financial sector reforms as well as all the other change areas, like US-led wars abroad, national health, energy crisis, global warming, etc, etc.
Brooks didnt think the FDR Government in the US in the 1930s was a valid precedent, where President Roosevelt acted with speedy, massive introduction of expansive national economic and financial programs. The FDR Government was dealing with a similar-scale financial crisis to the one facing the world now. But according to Brooks, Obama does not have a mandate for FDRs fast pace of government-led change. Thats despite one camp of Democrat economic policy advisers wanting regulation-based change implemented promptly.
Brooks reckons Obama is more likely to follow the other camp, which sees the need to prove credibility on a program-by-program basis. This would mean steady program introduction, whose pace can be accelerated as consensus gets built transcending party lines. (As a simple comparison with Australia's two main parties, US Democrat Governments have tended to be more like our Australian Labor Governments. They're called the blue party. Ironically the more conservative Republicans are called red.)
Implications for Australia
Syndicated columnist Mark Shields believes President Obama will act to help groups disadvantaged by the new world economic model that started in the 1980s with US President Ronald Reagan. Continued and expanding to the present time, this has fostered individual success through free market capitalism - often at the expense of vulnerable groups in the US economy. Among these are US workers made redundant when US manufacturers "exported" operations to get China's cheaper labour costs and bigger economies of scale.
Shields said Obama's overwhelming election victory gives him an immediate green light for new economic policies that wind-back the old models adverse side-affects. (Like Margaret Thatchers UK Government, Australian and New Zealand governments also acted to free markets and bring about the one world financial system. If Obama seeks to help adversely affected groups in America, perhaps Kevin Rudd will in Australia too. But as for ideas flowing the other way, Obama will be too canny to want a national talkfest like our Australia 2020 Summit of 19-20 April 2008, encouraging a new elite!)
Sad at so many friends leaving
Big Cat's third go at finding the Spirit came after Scientology did its engram-seeking thing, only to find all the confessing apparently didn't impress the Holy Spirit, who he still couldn't find.
The Charismatic Christian movement* interested me because of its impressive growth in members attracted away from mainstream Christian denominations over the very thing that concerned me - finding the Holy Spirit.
The Charismatic church I checked out one Sunday in 1992 was carrying out an induction of about 100 defectors mostly from the Baptist Church. I went along and enrolled in not just one but two of the 14 weekday meetings set up for the men in this new influx. I wanted to learn quickly.
The influx roughly trebled the congregation to almost 400. But unfortunately for me and the other new members, it failed in our hope of seeing the Spirit.
The first sign that the Charismatic influx wasn't going to stick around came when attendance almost immediately fell off at the men's meetings. Within a few months the 14 weekday meetings were down to four.
Why? Because most of the men couldn't get excited about reading the Bible as much as the meetings required. They found it a very hard book to read and were impatient about seeing the Holy Spirit show up.
To the majority, men and women alike, the Spirit simply didn't show up. By about a year later half of the Charismatic newcomers were gone.
Many of the Charismatic influx defected to the local big Pentecostal church that has the same attraction for Christians as Sydney's famous Hillsong further west. (Both are mega churches in the mainstream of church growth today.)
I stuck at being a member of the Charismatic church but the departure of all my new friends made at the men's meetings made me very sad.
However, imagine my joy when overseas preachers began coming to the church in the third year, telling about a phenomenon in North America where the Holy Spirit was "indeed showing up".
Big Cat picks up the quest's exciting new twist in Intrepid 4 next week.
* Helpful links:
A typical Charismatic church mission statement, including "we fully expect the Holy Spirit to equip and empower us."
Keywords about Holy Spirit
September 28th 2007 02:43
Abuse and crime: Big Cat journeys from his "truth" closer to real truth. About bad conscience, learning from Scientology and (next) Christianity.
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September 23rd 2007 06:30
Last night's ABC showing of the final in the present series of Dr Who was highly evocative emotionally and even spiritually. No wonder it has a cult-like following of avid supporters. Even older, mildly avid viewers like me get excited enough to want to write about it.
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September 13th 2007 00:45
Big Cat became the intrepid reporter after the Dalai Lama recently admitted publicly that he didn't know the meaning of life.
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"Tired of the www treadmill?
Here's good news for every 'PCer' tired of the www's perpetual treadmill of gaining knowledge. There's a mainframe that transcends with 'Reality' what the world wide web can only give by virtual reality. And connection with the mainframe is available now.
Every PCer already has a 'connecting file'. But it resides out of the PCer's reach in the 'mainframe recycle bin'. It can, however, be restored
[ Click here to read more ]
- It's a region where religious fanatics have a long history, like the mass-murder when British-held Khartoum fell in 1885 -
How would you like to be a Darfur dad trying to feed eight children, or the mum whose oldest kid got butchered by Arab militiamen right in front of your eyes
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- Aceh July 2006: Coastal landing craft takes on imported timber -
The world aid outpouring was to pass US$4.6 billion via the hundreds of organisations, both government and non government (NGOs), that rushed to help in Aceh and Nias in Indonesia's far north where the 2004 Boxing Day Force 9 earthquakes and tsunamis were centred.
[ Click here to read more ]
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Comment by Big Cat
on The Mission of Christianity
Chatterpillar
When readers consider their particular possible missions, I wonder what they think of God's own mission, in order to be a part of it.
Like: God wants His glory expressed throughout the world through Christ's body of sons and daughters.
To go a little deeper: This glory is the expression of God's virtues, which are ready for distribution in the spiritual body of His beloved first resurrected one, Christ.
BigCat (Ozpillar)