ALCS Preview
October 13th 2009 05:47
The above photo represents the majority of what you need to know about the 2009 ALCS: A-Rod will choke at the plate (as he presumably just did in the image), or he will come through and significantly increase his team's chances of advancing to the Fall Classic.
A-Rod's Yankees will have to go through the one team they probably wanted to see the least: the Angels. Something about the way that the Angels play simply confounds the Yanks, to the tune of the only winning record of any Yankee opponent over the last 10 years or so. In the past 6 seasons, the Angels have owned the Yankees with an impressive 35 wins against 23 losses. Let's break down the series by category....
Offense/lineup
The Yankees have the best lineup in baseball, hands down. No one can match the power AND contact threats in the top of this lineup with Jeter-Damon-Teixeira-Rodrigue z. If A-Rod, a perennial postseason deadbeat, can build on his ALDS power surge in the clutch, the Angels are going to have to be near perfect on the mound to keep the Yankees down. Rodriguez's playoff struggles are well documented, showing a shocking power outage in a frustrating playoff career.
The Angels pounded the ball all season long to the surprise of most, and made no exception for the Red Sox in the ALDS. This lineup is virtually identical to last year's ALDS version, with the subtraction of Mark Teixeira and the additions of Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu into the everyday lineup. It is Abreu who is credited with the exceptional turnaround of the Angel hitting philosophy of taking pitches and being more selective. His 4 walks in Game 1 against the Red Sox are a testament to that fact. His importance to this lineup cannot be understated. The continual emergence of Kendry Morales and the consistency of Torii Hunter in the heart of the order give the Angels a formidable rival to their Yankee counterparts. Sunday's amazing 9th inning rally, sparked by 9-hitter Erick Aybar, shows that there is not one easy out in the entire Angel lineup.
Advantage: Yankees
Rotation
This is where the Angels have their best shot to win the series: the Yankees have nary a dependable starter after ace C.C. Sabathia. One could argue that #2 starter A.J. Burnett is a shutdown starter--he certainly has the potential and talent--but he is erratic to the point that manager Joe Girardi might never know what he's getting from Burnett. After Burnett, the Yankees will trot out grizzled playoff veteran Andy Pettitte, who is still capable of tossing a postseason gem when needed, and Joba Chamberlain, no better than a question mark at this point.
The front of the Angel rotation shone bright in the division series, with John Lackey and Jered Weaver combining for 1 earned run and 6 hits over nearly 15 innings of work in shutting down the potent Boston lineup for 2 wins. With Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders rounding out the ALCS rotation, the Angels provide no relief at any point for Yankee hitters. Kazmir and Saunders have both had their struggles this season, but each threw a few outstanding games in August and September. If they can continue the momentum, and probable shut down work from Lackey and Weaver, the Yankees could struggle to score in bunches and take the momentum.
Advantage: Angels
The Pen
There is one component that elevates the Yankee bullpen from the Halo pen: the immortal Mariano Rivera. This guy comes about as close to doing his job perfectly as any player who has ever played the baseball. What is scarier you ask? That as masterful as he is during the regular season, he raises his game to a new level in the postseason. The career postseason numbers are absurd: 121 IP, .74 ERA, 8-1, 100 K, 17 BB. The guy has played in 14 postseasons and given up 10 earned runs. His baseball-reference stats page just makes my jaw open and my head shake. The rest of the Yankees pen is so pedestrian that Joe Girardi will cross his fingers that his starter can get him into the 8th (and Rivera) with a lead in every game of the LCS, because anyone else down there is apt to blow a lead to an opportunistic and clutch Angel lineup.
The Angel pen is deep, young, inexperienced, and improving all at the same time. They have dependable arms with some nasty pitches in Ervin Santana, Jose Arredondo, and Darren Oliver. Kevin Jepsen has a nasty repertoire as well, and looks to get better every time he gets the call. Jason Bulger was the most consistent reliever during the regular year, but may be a non-factor in the LCS because he is just coming off an injury. The closer, Brian Fuentes, causes ulcers for Angel fans every time he pitches. It's that simple. He led the AL in saves, but that total is mostly the product of closing for the Angels, and his peripheral stats are crummy. The Angels have the potential to shorten every game depending on how good the bullpen is that night, and if they can pick up that night's starter. Look for at least one unnecessary bullpen adventure against the deadly New York lineup in this series.
Advantage: Angels if leading by 2 or more; Yankees if leading at all
Manager/Coaching
No need to discuss anything here. Mike Scioscia is the best manager in baseball and there is very little argument that he will routinely out-coach Joe Girardi at key junctures in this series.
Advantage: Angels
The stage is set for the AL's best to do battle in the next installment of a series belonging to the Angels this decade, with 2 ALDS series wins over the Yankees in 2002 and 2006 in addition to the regular season success. The clutch hitting of Alex Rodriguez and the competence of the starting rotation will go a long way in determining whether or not the Yankees can overcome their adversary from the West.
Prediction: Angels in 6 games. Saunders and Kazmir have both pitched especially well in their careers against New York, and will start Games 3 and 4, respectively, at Angel Stadium. Sabathia and one other Yankee starter will each win once, but the disparity in starting pitching will give the pennant to the Angels.
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