AFC North
October 31st 2011 14:43
When the 2011 season began, most NFL predictions had the Steelers and Ravens atop the division. Expectations met. Most observers thought the Browns were going to have an up-and-down season. Expectations met, although not completely. And I think most people thought that the Bungles had bungled their way through the pre-season, their QB decisions and everything else related to the team. Expectations decimated!
Starting with Baltimore, they opened the season by crushing the Steelers. Talk about a way to open the season! Their decisive and no-questions defeat of Pittsburgh put a shine on the early part of the season, and allowed the Ravens to hit the ground running. A horrible loss on Monday Night Football to the Jacksonville Jaguars had completely eliminated that shine, and opened the door to all manner of questions. Despite shaky moments, the Ravens win over the hapless Arizona Cardinals secures the Ravens virtual first place in the AFC North as they travel to Pittsburgh for the 2nd edition of their two-game set. So the Ravens are big, bad and tough, but offensively they are a mixed bag. Some weeks they are run-heavy with Ray Rice, and pound the ground. Other weeks they work well through the air. There's no identity, and there remain major questions with this team, such as at the offensive line and quarterback. Expectations are being reset with Baltimore, and many people can't help but to question whether this team is Super Bowl capable. In an AFC that suddenly looks very different, I maintain that they continue to be an elite team.
Pittsburgh opened the season at 2-2, with two bad losses to Baltimore and Houston. They feasted on the easier parts of their schedule, and then solidly defeated New England yesterday. That puts the "what have you done for me lately" shine on this team, but the truth of the matter is that the Steelers have not fared well against the two run-heavy teams they've faced. Or more precisely, they've not fared well against the two run-heavy teams capable of passing the ball with precision. Decimating Jacksonville does not count, considering that Blaine Gabbert spent much of his day running for his life. No, the Steelers are very, very good and possibly elite, but in my opinion have a few questions left to answer.
Cleveland, at 3-4, seems to be treading some water. They move forward, they step back. They do some things well, they do others not so well. Winning a game with a final score of 6-3 tells more about the state of this team's offense than anything else. An entire 60-minute game, and the team generated two scores. Both field goals at that. Yuck. As Colt McCoy regressed, or are more teams onto him, or has the offense changed a little? Yes, yes and yes. Despite that, there remains in McCoy the reasons the Browns drafted him. He's a natural leader (unlike that idiot in Denver) and does well with the gifts he has. Of note, Cleveland's defense has improved significantly. That makes the Browns a more complete team. Doesn't make them a strong team yet, but a complete team should be expected to be around .500 at the season's mid-point. In my opinion, the arrow is pointing up as well. That's favorable.
Finally, to Cincinnati, a team shattering expectations. How real is the Red Rifle? Well, he's made Cincy faithful forget about Carson Palmer, that's for sure. And the trade that the Bengals pulled off for Palmer assures them continued high picks suitable for continuing to build from within. For Cincy, the loss to Denver seems inexcusable. The loss to San Fran validates the idea that this team really hasn't beaten anyone. But then they beat Buffalo, and the Bills are much stronger this year. The truth is, with the two games coming up against both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and a game against Houston, the Cincinnati Bengals have yet to prove to anyone that they are a player for the 2011 playoffs. They're well-positioned, and if you think they can win out against the bad teams (Tennessee, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Arizona) and attempt to get one win out of four tries against the AFC North heavyweights, that's a 10-6 season. The trouble is that both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have virtually identical stretch runs with games heavy in the AFC North and a few games here and there against other tough opponents. The Bengals are going to have to beat the likes of Pittsburgh and/or Baltimore to prove anything. That's probably not going to happen.
One truth about the NFL is that winning your division assures you the playoffs. Thus, defeating your divisional opponents must get the most importance. Therefore, building a team that is most capable of defeating the most important opponents must be done. Ergo, divisional teams often mirror one another because they must beat one another. It should therefore not surprise anyone that of the top 5 defenses in the NFL, all four AFC North teams are represented. When you look at YPG, all four are in the top six. When you look at Points per game, all four are in the top 8. You want to win the North? Bring your defense.
It's somewhat gratifying to see the AFC North doing better overall. I know that means tougher competition, but I get tired of people rating the AFC North as a "weak" division. Granted, no one will be as weak as the NFC West, but if there's a weak sister in the AFC some could point to the North with a strong argument. But not this year.
Starting with Baltimore, they opened the season by crushing the Steelers. Talk about a way to open the season! Their decisive and no-questions defeat of Pittsburgh put a shine on the early part of the season, and allowed the Ravens to hit the ground running. A horrible loss on Monday Night Football to the Jacksonville Jaguars had completely eliminated that shine, and opened the door to all manner of questions. Despite shaky moments, the Ravens win over the hapless Arizona Cardinals secures the Ravens virtual first place in the AFC North as they travel to Pittsburgh for the 2nd edition of their two-game set. So the Ravens are big, bad and tough, but offensively they are a mixed bag. Some weeks they are run-heavy with Ray Rice, and pound the ground. Other weeks they work well through the air. There's no identity, and there remain major questions with this team, such as at the offensive line and quarterback. Expectations are being reset with Baltimore, and many people can't help but to question whether this team is Super Bowl capable. In an AFC that suddenly looks very different, I maintain that they continue to be an elite team.
Pittsburgh opened the season at 2-2, with two bad losses to Baltimore and Houston. They feasted on the easier parts of their schedule, and then solidly defeated New England yesterday. That puts the "what have you done for me lately" shine on this team, but the truth of the matter is that the Steelers have not fared well against the two run-heavy teams they've faced. Or more precisely, they've not fared well against the two run-heavy teams capable of passing the ball with precision. Decimating Jacksonville does not count, considering that Blaine Gabbert spent much of his day running for his life. No, the Steelers are very, very good and possibly elite, but in my opinion have a few questions left to answer.
Cleveland, at 3-4, seems to be treading some water. They move forward, they step back. They do some things well, they do others not so well. Winning a game with a final score of 6-3 tells more about the state of this team's offense than anything else. An entire 60-minute game, and the team generated two scores. Both field goals at that. Yuck. As Colt McCoy regressed, or are more teams onto him, or has the offense changed a little? Yes, yes and yes. Despite that, there remains in McCoy the reasons the Browns drafted him. He's a natural leader (unlike that idiot in Denver) and does well with the gifts he has. Of note, Cleveland's defense has improved significantly. That makes the Browns a more complete team. Doesn't make them a strong team yet, but a complete team should be expected to be around .500 at the season's mid-point. In my opinion, the arrow is pointing up as well. That's favorable.
Finally, to Cincinnati, a team shattering expectations. How real is the Red Rifle? Well, he's made Cincy faithful forget about Carson Palmer, that's for sure. And the trade that the Bengals pulled off for Palmer assures them continued high picks suitable for continuing to build from within. For Cincy, the loss to Denver seems inexcusable. The loss to San Fran validates the idea that this team really hasn't beaten anyone. But then they beat Buffalo, and the Bills are much stronger this year. The truth is, with the two games coming up against both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and a game against Houston, the Cincinnati Bengals have yet to prove to anyone that they are a player for the 2011 playoffs. They're well-positioned, and if you think they can win out against the bad teams (Tennessee, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Arizona) and attempt to get one win out of four tries against the AFC North heavyweights, that's a 10-6 season. The trouble is that both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have virtually identical stretch runs with games heavy in the AFC North and a few games here and there against other tough opponents. The Bengals are going to have to beat the likes of Pittsburgh and/or Baltimore to prove anything. That's probably not going to happen.
One truth about the NFL is that winning your division assures you the playoffs. Thus, defeating your divisional opponents must get the most importance. Therefore, building a team that is most capable of defeating the most important opponents must be done. Ergo, divisional teams often mirror one another because they must beat one another. It should therefore not surprise anyone that of the top 5 defenses in the NFL, all four AFC North teams are represented. When you look at YPG, all four are in the top six. When you look at Points per game, all four are in the top 8. You want to win the North? Bring your defense.
It's somewhat gratifying to see the AFC North doing better overall. I know that means tougher competition, but I get tired of people rating the AFC North as a "weak" division. Granted, no one will be as weak as the NFC West, but if there's a weak sister in the AFC some could point to the North with a strong argument. But not this year.
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