AFC North Race
November 28th 2011 18:03
1. Baltimore: @CLE, IND, @SD, CLE, @CIN
2. Pittsburgh: CIN, CLE, @SF, STL, @CLE
3. Cincinnati: @PIT, HOU, @STL, ARI, BAL
Strength of schedule:
1. Bal .364 (20-35)
2. Pit .473 (26-29)
3. Cin .545 (30-25)
All three teams have 3 home games left. Both PIttsburgh and Baltimore have to travel to the west coast.
Baltimore leads the division and holds the tie-breaker over Pittsburgh by virtue of their season sweep. The Bengals are a game back of Pittsburgh and are 2-2 in the division. The Steelers are 1-2 in the division with 3 to play, and Baltimore is 3-0 in the division.
Baltimore's schedule is the easiest. There is no reason this team should not go 13-3. To be blunt, they will have to win out; the Patriots are sitting at 8-3 as well and both teams have light schedules to end the year. I think that if the Ravens go 13-3, they'll be the number one seed by virtual of their win directly over Houston (assuming the Texans win out) and new England (because presumably they'll have a better divisional record). So the Ravens have a TON to play for, bad teams or not. They want - need, perhaps - the road to the Super Bowl to go through Baltimore. Plus, Pittsburgh is experienced at playoff-style football, and will presumably be playing very well down the stretch. The Ravens have to keep at least the same record as Pittsburgh to win the division.
Pittsburgh's schedule is middling, but that Monday Nighter against San Francisco looms HUGE. For one thing, Pittsburgh needs to win out if they want to have any hope at all at unseating division-leading Baltimore. The Steelers need help to win the division, so it's doubly important that they keep pace with Baltimore. It is not out of the question - if the Steelers win out - that Week 17 will be a huge week for Pittsburgh. Beat Cleveland and then hope like hell Cincinnati can beat Baltimore, and the AFC North is theirs. However, one loss ends any hope that the Steelers will win the North. If Baltimore loses 2 down the stretch given the schedule they have, they don't deserve the North title!
For Cincinnati, things are downright ugly. However, to their credit, the Bengals have a full game lead in the wild card. But if they don't win Sunday, they will fall back into the pack. Three teams are sitting at 6-5 with a chance to catch the Bengals. And unfortunately, the Bengals have a tough schedule with games in Pittsburgh, home against Houston and ending the season home against Baltimore. To get into the playoffs, the Bengals are probably going to need to win at least 2 of those games. I don't know if 10-6 will win a wild card seed.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Baltimore will win out and secure the division. I think Pittsburgh will lose one - either to Cincy or San Fran - and end up locking down the 5th wild card seed. The Bengals I think will end up finding a way to secure the 6th wild card. I think the Broncos will be beaten at some point, and I am confident that both the Jets and Titans will lose at least one, possibly two more games each. Forget the rest of the AFC - no one else can do a thing.
2. Pittsburgh: CIN, CLE, @SF, STL, @CLE
3. Cincinnati: @PIT, HOU, @STL, ARI, BAL
Strength of schedule:
1. Bal .364 (20-35)
2. Pit .473 (26-29)
3. Cin .545 (30-25)
All three teams have 3 home games left. Both PIttsburgh and Baltimore have to travel to the west coast.
Baltimore leads the division and holds the tie-breaker over Pittsburgh by virtue of their season sweep. The Bengals are a game back of Pittsburgh and are 2-2 in the division. The Steelers are 1-2 in the division with 3 to play, and Baltimore is 3-0 in the division.
Baltimore's schedule is the easiest. There is no reason this team should not go 13-3. To be blunt, they will have to win out; the Patriots are sitting at 8-3 as well and both teams have light schedules to end the year. I think that if the Ravens go 13-3, they'll be the number one seed by virtual of their win directly over Houston (assuming the Texans win out) and new England (because presumably they'll have a better divisional record). So the Ravens have a TON to play for, bad teams or not. They want - need, perhaps - the road to the Super Bowl to go through Baltimore. Plus, Pittsburgh is experienced at playoff-style football, and will presumably be playing very well down the stretch. The Ravens have to keep at least the same record as Pittsburgh to win the division.
Pittsburgh's schedule is middling, but that Monday Nighter against San Francisco looms HUGE. For one thing, Pittsburgh needs to win out if they want to have any hope at all at unseating division-leading Baltimore. The Steelers need help to win the division, so it's doubly important that they keep pace with Baltimore. It is not out of the question - if the Steelers win out - that Week 17 will be a huge week for Pittsburgh. Beat Cleveland and then hope like hell Cincinnati can beat Baltimore, and the AFC North is theirs. However, one loss ends any hope that the Steelers will win the North. If Baltimore loses 2 down the stretch given the schedule they have, they don't deserve the North title!
For Cincinnati, things are downright ugly. However, to their credit, the Bengals have a full game lead in the wild card. But if they don't win Sunday, they will fall back into the pack. Three teams are sitting at 6-5 with a chance to catch the Bengals. And unfortunately, the Bengals have a tough schedule with games in Pittsburgh, home against Houston and ending the season home against Baltimore. To get into the playoffs, the Bengals are probably going to need to win at least 2 of those games. I don't know if 10-6 will win a wild card seed.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Baltimore will win out and secure the division. I think Pittsburgh will lose one - either to Cincy or San Fran - and end up locking down the 5th wild card seed. The Bengals I think will end up finding a way to secure the 6th wild card. I think the Broncos will be beaten at some point, and I am confident that both the Jets and Titans will lose at least one, possibly two more games each. Forget the rest of the AFC - no one else can do a thing.
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