A Little Arm Twisting
October 23rd 2009 17:12
Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s U.S. backed President, agreed, under duress from his master, to back a runoff election against the second place finisher, Abdullah Abdullah (no, I didn’t stutter), who is Minister of Foreign Affairs. Senator John Kerry, the same John Kerry who went into seclusion after losing the 2004 presidential election to George Bush, went over to Kabul to do a little arm twisting:
“President Karzai really deeply believes he had won the election and ... that the international community was kind of conspiring to push for a different outcome," Kerry said. "He had people within his government, people within the election commission who felt they were being insulted about putting together a faulty election process."
"There were a lot of very deep feelings about Afghanistan's right to run its election, its competency in running it," Kerry said.” (Associated Press, “Afghan president’s rival accepts Nov. 7 runoff,” Rahim Faiez and Heidi Vogt, 10/21/07).
Karzai is an ethnic Pashtun who was born near Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. His family has long been involved in Afghan politics, and he came to the attention of the CIA when he served as an intermediary trying to secure funds and equipment from the CIA for the Muhajideen during their war against 1980’s Russian occupation. When the Taliban emerged victorious, he was asked to be their ambassador to the UN, but he refused, and he went into exile in Pakistan, where he worked to restore the Afghan monarchy (he comes from a family of monarchists; the hat that he is always seen in is the same kind of hat the former king wore, which might give some insight into his ambitions). In 2001, after the ouster of the Taliban by the CIA and Northern Alliance (Muhajideen who switched from fighting Russians to fighting Taliban), Karzai was named head of an Interim Transitional Administration; this wouldn’t have happened without CIA and Northern Alliance backing (and the backing of his brothers, one of which, Ahmed Wali Karzai is a reputed narcotics trafficker and dealer). In 2002, a Loyal Jirga, sort of a tribal council on steroids, appointed Karzai President until an election could be held. In 2004, he was elected President, winning 21 out of 34 provinces and more than 55% of the vote.
To understand the situation President Obama faces, you have to understand what Karzai is up against. The Taliban, who fought as part of the alliance to remove the Russians, are also primarily Pashtun, which explains Karzai’s feeling that “there were many wonderful people in the Taliban” (Wikipedia, Hamid Karzai, Taliban era) and Karzai’s belief that he could sit down and negotiate a power sharing deal with “moderate” fanatics (an oxymoron?).
Abdullah Abdullah’s father was Pashtun, which might make you think that he would be loved by Karzai like a brother, but his mother is Tajik, and there’s the rub; Abdullah (I’m calling him by his last name) sided with his mother’s family. Tajik and Pashtun are rival clans. Although Abdullah, a doctor, spent his early years in Kandahar, he was raised in Kabul, the capital, in northern and eastern Afghanistan, where his father worked for the King. After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, Abdullah went to work for the Northern Alliance in 1997 as its Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. After the defeat of the Taliban, the Interim Transitional Administration appointed him Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2001. In 2002, the Loyal Jirga reappointed him Minister of Foreign Affairs, and after the 2004 presidential elections, he was again reappointed.
President Obama probably already knows what he is going to do about Afghanistan and Karzai; he’s just stalling for time. If Karzai wins the UN supervised runoff election by a wide margin, President Obama would have to face the prospect of continuing to support a corrupt government, many of whose officials deal with the Taliban. He would lose even more support in the U.S., and the public outcry against sending in the troops and military support that General McChrystal wants would be louder. The real danger would be to Pakistan; the Taliban have a toe hold in Pashtun Northern Pakistan, and if they are allowed to continue in strength in Afghanistan, they would threaten the security of Pakistan and its nukes. Obama would still have an ally in Karzai who would like to see the fanatical Taliban (not his “moderate” Taliban” brothers) defeated without any casualties, and who doesn’t want any harm to come to the opium poppy fields.
If Abdullah wins, he has a chance of being a strong administrator and ally, and he might gain the support of the former Northern Alliance warlords, and maybe some of the Pashtun, in fighting the Taliban. Unlike Karzai, who doesn’t leave Kabul, Abdullah is known in the hinterlands, and is popular with the people McChrystal is trying to win over; he is a McChrystal kind of politician, the kind it might be worthwhile supporting with more troops, military aid and a change in strategy.
Karzai is probably the sure thing in this election, while Abdullah is the long shot; both are considered patriots in Afghanistan, along with, strangely, the Taliban. Sometimes, betting on the long shot pays off; just ask President Obama.
“President Karzai really deeply believes he had won the election and ... that the international community was kind of conspiring to push for a different outcome," Kerry said. "He had people within his government, people within the election commission who felt they were being insulted about putting together a faulty election process."
"There were a lot of very deep feelings about Afghanistan's right to run its election, its competency in running it," Kerry said.” (Associated Press, “Afghan president’s rival accepts Nov. 7 runoff,” Rahim Faiez and Heidi Vogt, 10/21/07).
Karzai is an ethnic Pashtun who was born near Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. His family has long been involved in Afghan politics, and he came to the attention of the CIA when he served as an intermediary trying to secure funds and equipment from the CIA for the Muhajideen during their war against 1980’s Russian occupation. When the Taliban emerged victorious, he was asked to be their ambassador to the UN, but he refused, and he went into exile in Pakistan, where he worked to restore the Afghan monarchy (he comes from a family of monarchists; the hat that he is always seen in is the same kind of hat the former king wore, which might give some insight into his ambitions). In 2001, after the ouster of the Taliban by the CIA and Northern Alliance (Muhajideen who switched from fighting Russians to fighting Taliban), Karzai was named head of an Interim Transitional Administration; this wouldn’t have happened without CIA and Northern Alliance backing (and the backing of his brothers, one of which, Ahmed Wali Karzai is a reputed narcotics trafficker and dealer). In 2002, a Loyal Jirga, sort of a tribal council on steroids, appointed Karzai President until an election could be held. In 2004, he was elected President, winning 21 out of 34 provinces and more than 55% of the vote.
To understand the situation President Obama faces, you have to understand what Karzai is up against. The Taliban, who fought as part of the alliance to remove the Russians, are also primarily Pashtun, which explains Karzai’s feeling that “there were many wonderful people in the Taliban” (Wikipedia, Hamid Karzai, Taliban era) and Karzai’s belief that he could sit down and negotiate a power sharing deal with “moderate” fanatics (an oxymoron?).
Abdullah Abdullah’s father was Pashtun, which might make you think that he would be loved by Karzai like a brother, but his mother is Tajik, and there’s the rub; Abdullah (I’m calling him by his last name) sided with his mother’s family. Tajik and Pashtun are rival clans. Although Abdullah, a doctor, spent his early years in Kandahar, he was raised in Kabul, the capital, in northern and eastern Afghanistan, where his father worked for the King. After the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, Abdullah went to work for the Northern Alliance in 1997 as its Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. After the defeat of the Taliban, the Interim Transitional Administration appointed him Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2001. In 2002, the Loyal Jirga reappointed him Minister of Foreign Affairs, and after the 2004 presidential elections, he was again reappointed.
President Obama probably already knows what he is going to do about Afghanistan and Karzai; he’s just stalling for time. If Karzai wins the UN supervised runoff election by a wide margin, President Obama would have to face the prospect of continuing to support a corrupt government, many of whose officials deal with the Taliban. He would lose even more support in the U.S., and the public outcry against sending in the troops and military support that General McChrystal wants would be louder. The real danger would be to Pakistan; the Taliban have a toe hold in Pashtun Northern Pakistan, and if they are allowed to continue in strength in Afghanistan, they would threaten the security of Pakistan and its nukes. Obama would still have an ally in Karzai who would like to see the fanatical Taliban (not his “moderate” Taliban” brothers) defeated without any casualties, and who doesn’t want any harm to come to the opium poppy fields.
If Abdullah wins, he has a chance of being a strong administrator and ally, and he might gain the support of the former Northern Alliance warlords, and maybe some of the Pashtun, in fighting the Taliban. Unlike Karzai, who doesn’t leave Kabul, Abdullah is known in the hinterlands, and is popular with the people McChrystal is trying to win over; he is a McChrystal kind of politician, the kind it might be worthwhile supporting with more troops, military aid and a change in strategy.
Karzai is probably the sure thing in this election, while Abdullah is the long shot; both are considered patriots in Afghanistan, along with, strangely, the Taliban. Sometimes, betting on the long shot pays off; just ask President Obama.
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