2008: a blood red year
January 2nd 2009 06:08
AD2008 will be remembered as the year Earth bled on a bed of greed. AD2009 promises to be the year of pain; the year we run out of sutures, bandages and paracetamol.
It is not certain things will get worse before they get better, but if they don't it will be a surprise. The whole world is now floundering in recession. Oh, Australia and other pockets are technically still wagging the tail of fiscal growth, but the cheering has died and even the politicians know there is no further mileage to be squeezed from that pointless fact.
Australia may be one of the last to qualify for properly defined recession, but that is splitting hairs, or percentage points, and who will care when recessionary bullets are flying thickly in 2009, and the blood in the gutters is as plentiful as elsewhere?
Interest rates are coming down - nice, if you have a job - but unemployment will rise, and there will be the greatest pain.
Meanwhile, the search goes on for signs of contrition in Wall Street. Conspicuous by their absence are apologies, self-flagellation and promises to spend more time outside the ivory towers in future.
It is an attitude which led Matthew Parris to write the following this week in London's The Times. I leave you in his good hands.
"I want to see hedge-fund managers tipped into cage fights with naked Gypsies; bank managers wrestle with lions in the O2 arena; failed regulators thrown to alligators in the Royal Docks; short sellers in pits of snakes; and distinguished City economists try their luck with sharks. They've had their heyday, their bonuses, their Porsches, their fine wines and oafish ostentation - they've had their fun. Now for ours. To the guillotine!"
It is not certain things will get worse before they get better, but if they don't it will be a surprise. The whole world is now floundering in recession. Oh, Australia and other pockets are technically still wagging the tail of fiscal growth, but the cheering has died and even the politicians know there is no further mileage to be squeezed from that pointless fact.
Australia may be one of the last to qualify for properly defined recession, but that is splitting hairs, or percentage points, and who will care when recessionary bullets are flying thickly in 2009, and the blood in the gutters is as plentiful as elsewhere?
Interest rates are coming down - nice, if you have a job - but unemployment will rise, and there will be the greatest pain.
Meanwhile, the search goes on for signs of contrition in Wall Street. Conspicuous by their absence are apologies, self-flagellation and promises to spend more time outside the ivory towers in future.
It is an attitude which led Matthew Parris to write the following this week in London's The Times. I leave you in his good hands.
"I want to see hedge-fund managers tipped into cage fights with naked Gypsies; bank managers wrestle with lions in the O2 arena; failed regulators thrown to alligators in the Royal Docks; short sellers in pits of snakes; and distinguished City economists try their luck with sharks. They've had their heyday, their bonuses, their Porsches, their fine wines and oafish ostentation - they've had their fun. Now for ours. To the guillotine!"
timesonline.co.uk
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Comment by Janet Collins
Acceptable Etiquette
The Social Critic
Janet Collins Blog
And on this point -
The "definitions" for economic boom or recession are all splitting hairs. The reason we were all "prosperous" is because growing China (and India) have needed our coal. There was no magic formula. This is what is keeping us technically "in the black".
Janet
Comment by Chris Champion
moneywhither
Vyoos
Zoomies
Bloggercises
The Blog of Lists
Newly Old
Excellent. You are awarded the Orbel Prize for Economics.
Comment by Janet Collins
Acceptable Etiquette
The Social Critic
Janet Collins Blog
It is really not rocket science but that is why NSW is so broke. All the exports are coming out of WA.
Take care.
Janet
Comment by Chris Champion
moneywhither
Vyoos
Zoomies
Bloggercises
The Blog of Lists
Newly Old
I spent too many years working in investment banks (as an editor - don't blame me for the global economic crisis!) to think you were joking.
I read somewhere recently that China is approaching 30% of global GDP. Its appetite for raw materials to feed its enormous manufacturing sector is voracious, and Australia is in the happy position of being able to provide lots of stuff it needs.
While Australia is a major exporter of coal, however, about 60% of those exports go to Japan. By far the biggest Australian export to China is iron ore. This is followed by wool, copper and manganese.
If only my dogs would dig up some manganese instead of old bones